Here is an interesting article on Argenina.
With its vast stretches of Pampas grassland and almost 40 million people, Argentina is one of the world's least densely-populated countries. A 2006 United Nations survey ranks it 202th among 240 nations and dependencies. Meanwhile, a 2005 UN report ranks Argentina's population growth rate 129th. The report puts the rate at 1% annually, just below the world average of 1.17%.
At 4% a year (Liberia is growing at 4.5%), a country's population doubles every 18 years. At 1% it doubles every 70. So Argentina, which is the 8th biggest country, isn't going to feel crowded any time soon. The U.S, meanwhile, which is either the 3rd or 4th biggest country (depending on whether you consider Taiwan part of China), ranks 179th in terms of crowding. Its population growth rate, as of 2005, ranked 131th and was 0.97%.
But Argentina's rate is only moderately related to immigration while the U.S. rate is driven mainly by immigration and high Hispanic birth rates. Argentina's demographic makeup will remain largely unchanged in the years to come while the U.S. will change substantially, skewing heavily toward a more diverse population, with a greater share of ethnic minorities and first generation immigrants. By 2050 Caucasians will have become a minority, making up 47% of the population (compared with 85% in 1960). Argentina will continue to be dominated by families of Italian and Spanish origin, with added indigenous immigration from neighboring countries.
Meanwhile, as the U.S. population becomes even more racially diverse, making it look less like Argentina's European demographic, its lingual makeup will begin to sound much more like that of Argentina's. The U.S. Hispanic population is expected to triple to 29% by 2050. That means millions more Spanish speakers and a much larger market for Spanish-language TV programs and movies, including those from Argentina.
Argentina's population will rise to about 64 million by 2050 if current trends hold. The U.S. population will soar to 438 million from 303 million now. Its population is growing by about 3 million people a year, with a new birth every eight seconds and a new immigrant every 30, according to U.S. Census data. Argentina's population has grown 2,122% since 1869, the year of the first census, when it totaled 1.8 million. The U.S. population at the time was about 38.5 million, roughly the same as Argentina's now.
If an alien were to land in the U.S. in 2050, it would find a country whose demographics look much different than they do today. If it were to land in Argentina, however, it would likely encounter the same proportion of mustachioed Italian taxi drivers and excessively-tanned elderly women of Spanish descent. Most likely, they will still be complaining about the kind of things that excessively-tanned elderly women complain about. And even though there will be more of these people, each of them slightly more removed from their ancestors' Old World origins, they will always have the big open spaces and estancias of the Pampas where they can frolic about without concern for invading anyone's personal space. The Kirchners, now in their 90s, will have rotated through the presidency for the 10th time. And Marcelo Tinelli, also in his 90s but without a hint of gray hair, will still be conducting Show Match, hiring chesty young women to pounce around the stage and "dance for a dream."Â
But not everything will be the same. By 2050 the summertime beaches of Mar del Plata likely will have become unbearably overcrowded, insoportable, even for those intrepidly-tactile souls who enjoy the place in its current form.
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