White 1,000-Yard Receivers of the Past 20 Years

With week 12 in the books, here are the projected stats for 2025 receiving yards;

Really solid bets for 1,000 yards

1. (11 games, 6 remaining) Trey McBride 797 yards, 7 TDs, (72.5 Y/G) on pace for 1,232 yards.
2. (12 games, 5 remaining) Christian McCaffrey 785 yards, 5 TDs, (65.4 Y/G) on pace for 1,112 yards.
3. (11 games, 6 remaining) Travis Kelce 674 yards, 4 TDs, (61.3 Y/G) on pace for 1,042 yards.
4. (11 games, 6 remaining) Tyler Warren 662 yards, 3 TDs, (60.2 Y/G) on pace for 1,023 yards.
5. (11 games, 6 remaining) Alec Pierce 611 yards, 1 TD, (67.9 Y/G) on pace for 1,018 yards. *Pierce has only appeared in 9 of the 11 games the Colts have played.
6. (11 games, 6 remaining) Ladd McConkey 644 yards, 4 TDs, (58.5 Y/G) on pace for 995 yards.


Striking distance a.k.a. very realistic shot at 1,000 yards

1. (11 games, 6 remaining) Brock Bowers 510 yards, 3 TDs, (63.8 Y/G) on pace for 893 yards. *Bowers has only appeared in 8 of the 11 games the Raiders have played.
2. (11 games, 6 remaining) Dalton Kincaid 448 yards, 4 TDs, (56 Y/G) on pace for 784 yards.
3. (11 games, 6 remaining) Sam LaPorta 489 yards, 3 TDs, (54.3 Y/G) on pace for 815 yards.
4. (12 games, 5 remaining) Hunter Henry 537 yards, 5 TDs, (44.8 Y/G) on pace for 761 yards.
5. (11 games, 6 remaining) Dalton Schultz 497 yards, 1 TD, (45.2 Y/G) on pace for 768 yards.


-Please feel free to to correct my math and my categorization, etc.!

-For discussion purposes I think out of the 2nd category, Bowers, Kincaid, and LaPorta have the most realistic shot (particularly Bowers b/c he missed 3 entire games) at reaching 1,000 yards b/c they seem (this is in my estimation only) to be trending upward in their production over the past 4-6 weeks. Hunter Henry is the only wildcard, I think he'll come up short in the 850-915 yard range, his production is boom-or-bust.

-For discussion purposes I think out of the 1st category, McCaffrey & McBride are the only two "locks" (barring injury naturally). Out of everyone on my post, I'm most surprised about Kelce, he just doesn't seem to want to go away. I think it will come down to a 2023 type scenario for him......he had 984 yards and could have played in the final game to almost assuredly get his 1k but he instead chose to rest/not risk injury in week 17 (and would go on to win the SB, so who are we to second-guess him? Lol). IMO, the biggest difference is that the Chiefs already have 5 losses and even if they continue to win out they will still be playing for seeding in week 17 so barring injury he is most likely getting 1,000 yards again which I find remarkable. I worry the most about Ladd McConkey, there seem to be random games where the Chargers offense just seems to shut down entirely. He's their clear #1 (whether they admit it or not), and it looks like Quentin Johnston is starting to taper off effectiveness-wise if you look at the past 6 weeks. Alec Pierce was boom-or-bust last year (and led the league in Y/R!!) and easily would've had 1200 yards if he had gotten the requisite targets and/or had a decent QB. This year he is getting more targets (less TDs), AGAIN leads the league in Y/R and is the top deep-threat in the league this season without question. His consistency is better than last year's boom-or-bust situation which we can attribute to Daniel Jones behind center....BUT is still 3rd in targets on the team AND has missed 2 games entirely......I believe Pierce defies odds and discrimination and breaks 1,000 yards. If you can't tell already he's my new favorite player in the league (maybe tied with CMC, I was a WR so I've almost always had my favorite players be WRs) so I will be pulling for him.

Apologies for the long-winded post, what do you guys think?
 
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Good post, lots of effort put into it. The first six all have an excellent chance to get there. I'd really like to see Pierce make it as he's always been underused and can become a free agent after the season. Daniel Jones has thrown to him more than previous QBs but Jones isn't known for throwing the ball down the field a lot. On the other hand there's no good reason Pierce can't line up in the slot sometimes or run more medium routes than he does. He could lead the league in receiving yardage if his talents were properly utilized.

Of the second group, Bowers has the best chance but has an awful QB throwing to him. Everyone in the country other than Plantation Pete knows Geno Smith is no longer a starting caliber quarterback.

LaPorta is on IR and is unlikely to return this season, and while the oft-injured Kincaid should he has too far to go to hit the thousand yard mark. Henry is a dark horse and has a slight chance due to the talent of Drake Maye.
 
Don Wassall said:
Good post, lots of effort put into it. The first six all have an excellent chance to get there. I'd really like to see Pierce make it as he's always been underused and can become a free agent after the season. Daniel Jones has thrown to him more than previous QBs but Jones isn't known for throwing the ball down the field a lot. On the other hand there's no good reason Pierce can't line up in the slot sometimes or run more medium routes than he does. He could lead the league in receiving yardage if his talents were properly utilized.

Of the second group, Bowers has the best chance but has an awful QB throwing to him. Everyone in the country other than Plantation Pete knows Geno Smith is no longer a starting caliber quarterback.

LaPorta is on IR and is unlikely to return this season, and while the oft-injured Kincaid should he has too far to go to hit the thousand yard mark. Henry is a dark horse and has a slight chance due to the talent of Drake Maye.
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I somehow completely missed the LaPorta thing, I'm going to edit the post accordingly to reflect that!
 
Week 13 in the books and it's not looking amazing at the moment for some of the guys....:

All but a "lock" to get 1,000 yards;

1. (12 games, 5remaining) Trey McBride 879 yards, 8 TDs, (73.3 Y/G) on pace for 1,246 yards.
2. (13 games, 4 remaining) Christian McCaffrey 806 yards, 5 TDs, (62.0 Y/G) on pace for 1,054 yards.

Solid CHANCE for 1,000 yards;

1. (12 games, 5 remaining) Travis Kelce 719 yards, 5 TDs, (59.9 Y/G) on pace for 1,019 yards.
2. (12 games, 5 remaining) Alec Pierce 689 yards, 2 TDs, (68.9 Y/G) on pace for 1,034 yards. *Pierce has only appeared in 10 of the 12 games the Colts have played.
3. (12 games, 5 remaining) Tyler Warren 684 yards, 4 TDs, (57.0 Y/G) on pace for 969 yards.
4. (12 games, 5 remaining) Ladd McConkey 683 yards, 5 TDs, (56.9 Y/G) on pace for 968 yards.


Striking distance BUT a very long shot at 1,000 yards;

1. (12 games, 5 remaining) Brock Bowers 573 yards, 5 TDs, (63.0 Y/G) on pace for 888 yards. *Bowers has only appeared in 9 of the 12 games the Raiders have played.
2. (13 games, 4 remaining) Hunter Henry 610 yards, 5 TDs, (46.9 Y/G) on pace for 798 yards.


I removed a few guys (Schultz & Kincaid) b/c I just don't see a path to them making it (if Houston starts getting into shootouts all of a sudden, I'll add Schultz back in) to 1,000. Most of the guys didn't have amazing weeks this week but there is some good news (in my estimation) for the rest of the way forward. With Tyler Warren and my "new" ( I think prob since last season honestly) favorite WR Alec Pierce, the Colts are 8-4 and have 5 games remaining. They are tied with Jax for 1st in the AFC South and still have to play them twice, in addition to SEA, San Fran, & Houston again. I see them throwing a lot in 4 out of those 5 games and then the final game against Houston, with their incredible defense, who knows. I really like Pierce's chances at 1,000.....5 of his last 6 games have seen him surpass his current Y/G average, so he's trending in the right direction and Daniel Jones is trusting him more........of course Daniel Jones is now banged up but I anticipate him trying to play through his shoulder pain b/c otherwise the Colts have no shot at the playoffs. Regardless, I do not see them being able to rest starters, etc. in the final 2 weeks or so, too much is on the line. The Chargers are also fighting for a playoff spot and 3 of their 5 remaining games are against the Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys so I think the chances will be there for Ladd McConkey to get 1,000 yards again....heck...it would only take 1 game like his playoff game from last year (197 yards) and he'd essentially be a shoe-in after that, BUT......it all depends on how Justin Herbert heals and performs after his surgery yesterday on his non-throwing hand. Kelce continues to be an ageless wonder and as long as he's healthy he's going to be right on the cusp of yet another 1,000 yard season (it'll be his first since 2022....to be fair he had 984 yards in 2023 but sat out at the end of the season to avoid injury for playoff push) and he will not be sitting out any games because the Chiefs are fighting for their playoff lives currently sitting at 6-6. What say you guys?
 
Appreciate all the work you have done! We need a couple of big receiving days from McConkey and Warren. Really want to see them hit 1K!

Bowers and Henry staying in the hunt for 1k is also encouraging. Quite a takeover at TE! Stinks Tucker Kraft went down. With The way he was playing before he got hurt! Man!
 
Bucky said:
Appreciate all the work you have done! We need a couple of big receiving days from McConkey and Warren. Really want to see them hit 1K!

Bowers and Henry staying in the hunt for 1k is also encouraging. Quite a takeover at TE! Stinks Tucker Kraft went down. With The way he was playing before he got hurt! Man!
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Yes, Kraft was on pace for 1K. Pearsall too before his injury. He had 300 yards after 4 games. Since coming back, he’s been out of sync with his QBs.
 
No doubt about it. Both with promising starts to the season ruined by injuries . Hate to see it.
 
I debated making this post it's own thread but I feel like it's too related to this one because it involves trends over time. I went back to 1970 (AFL-NFL Merger) and did some research on receiving yards. I wanted to chart what the highest amount of yardage (leader) was for each season/year for white receivers (WR/TE/RB/whatever). I thought it would be interesting to see the trends (although I am not going to graph it). For each season I'm going to name the receiver, the yardage amount, & in parentheses I'm going to put where that receiver ranks that season for total receiving yardage [For example, for 2021 it would be: Cooper Kupp, 1,947 yards (#1)]. That way we can contextualize what an amount really means relative to the rest of the league for that particularly selected year. Hopefully this makes sense. Let me know what you guys think:

1970: Gary Garrison 1,006 yards (#4)
1971: Fred Biletnikoff 929 yards (#3) *Only 1 1,000 yard receiver in NFL that year
1972: Fred Biletnikoff 802 yards (#4)
1973: Mike Siani 742 yards (#9) *Only 1 1,000 yard receiver in NFL that year
1974: Gary Garrison 785 yards (#3)
1975: Bob Chandler 746 yards (#14) *Only 1 1,000 yard receiver in NFL that year
1976: Roger Carr 1,112 yards (#1)
1977: Bob Chandler 745 yards (#10) *ZERO 1,000 yard receivers in NFL that year
1978: Steve Largent 1,168 yards (#2)
1979: Steve Largent 1,237 yards (#1)
1980: Steve Largent 1,064 yards (#6)
1981: Steve Watson 1,244 yards (#3)
1982: Dwight Clark 913 yards (#2) *Strike shortened year, Clark led league in receptions
1983: Todd Christensen 1,247 yards (#4)
1984: Steve Watson 1,170 yards (#7)
1985: Steve Largent 1,287 yards (#1)
1986: Todd Christensen 1,153 yards (#6)
1987: Steve Largent 912 yards (#9) *Strike shortened year
1988: Mickey Shuler 805 yards (#25)
1989: Tom Rathman 616 yards (#51)
1990: Ricky Proehl 802 yards (#27)
1991: Marv Cook 808 yards (#31)
1992: Ricky Proehl 744 yards (#28)
1993: Ricky Proehl 877 yards (#21)
1994: Brent Jones 670 yards (#46)
1995: Wayne Chrebet 726 yards (#41)
1996: Wayne Chrebet 909 yards (#28)
1997: Wayne Chrebet 799 yards (#37)
1998: Wayne Chrebet 1,083 yards (#12)
1999: Patrick Jeffers 1,082 yards (#18)
2000: Ed McCaffrey 1,317 yards (#10)
2001: Bill Schroeder 918 yards (#26)
2002: Ed McCaffrey 903 yards (#28)
2003: Todd Heap 693 yards (#42)
2004: Drew Bennett 1,247 yards (#8)
2005: Jeremy Shockey 891 yards (#28)
2006: Mike Furrey 1,086 yards (#14)
2007: Wes Welker 1,175 yards (#11)
2008: Wes Welker 1,165 yards (#9)
2009: Wes Welker 1,348 yards (#2)
2010: Jason Witten 1,002 yards (#17)
2011: Wes Welker 1,569 yards (#2)
2012: Wes Welker 1,354 yards (#8)
2013: Jordy Nelson 1,314 yards (#10)
2014: Jordy Nelson 1,519 yards (#4)
2015: Rob Gronkowski 1,176 yards (#12)
2016: Jordy Nelson 1,257 yards (#6)
2017: Adam Thielen 1,276 yards (#5)
2018: George Kittle 1,377 yards (#8)
2019: Travis Kelce 1,229 yards (#4)
2020: Travis Kelce 1,416 yards (#2)
2021: Cooper Kupp 1,947 yards (#1)
2022: Travis Kelce 1,338 yards (#8)
2023: George Kittle 1,020 yards (#24)
2024: Brock Bowers 1,194 yards (#8)


2 things;

1. 2003 season....Jeremy Shockey gets injured after 9 games and misses the final 7 for the New York Giants. He was sitting at 535 yards. If we extrapolate his average at time of injury (59.4 Y/G) and apply it towards an entire season his total would come to 951 yards receiving through 16 games which would have put him at #19 in the league for the 2003 season which would have been more in line with the trend line (looking out 5 years in both directions from 2003) INSTEAD of Todd Heap finishing @ #42.

2. 2023 season.....the ranking of George Kittle @ #24 stood out to me so I looked it up and the reason that number stands out (negatively) from the previous 10 years is because #8 (Nico Collins 1297 yards) through #28 (Terry McLaurin 1002) yards is INCREDIBLY compressed. There are 20 receivers in that span of 295 yards so to me the ranking is misleading. In fact, the very next year (2024) it returns more to the trendline. Here's a screen shot of what I'm talking about:
1764878097227.png
 
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Let me know if that post should be it's own thread. ALSO.....let me know if there would be any appetite for me doing the same for rushing yardage totals & ranking from 1970-present. I've already got the names and amounts for each year, the only thing I have not done is placed the ranking for each year ,that wouldn't take me long though. If you guys want that, would you want me to make it it's own thread/post or put it under the "white RBs with 100 yard games" thread/post? Thanks!
 
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Amazing work Jeffcorner. Thanks from all of us here. Your a very important member here along with so many others. The running
back list would be fun to look at and study to. I vote yes if you have time sir.
 
I agree, excellent research again and if you want to make it a separate thread I'll stick it.

It tracks perfectly with what we've always said -- the Caste System went hard-core in the mid-'80s, which is when thousand yard White receivers disappeared as Largent, Watson and Collinsworth weren't replaced and didn't reappear until 1998 when Chrebet and McCaffrey ended the drought. Of course White receivers have never come back anywhere close to their previous stature in the NFL -- both in numbers of them and how many of them were stars.

Another important factor is that for a large portion of the NFL's history the schedule was 12 games, then was increased to 14 games in 1961 and then to 16 in '78. And even extrapolating the old numbers to today's increased schedule, the passing game didn't have the importance then, nor the fixation on stats and reaching certain numbers. Fantasy football in part drives the obsession with statistics as well as egotistical receivers and QBs reaching various single game and seasonal "milestones" and records. Look at the numbers of the great passers like Unitas, Starr, Namath and even more recent ones like Fouts and Marino, and they're often dwarfed by today's output among top quarterbacks.
 
Don Wassall said:
It tracks perfectly with what we've always said -- the Caste System went hard-core in the mid-'80s, which is when thousand yard White receivers disappeared as Largent, Watson and Collinsworth weren't replaced and didn't reappear until 1998 when Chrebet and McCaffrey ended the drought. Of course White receivers have never come back anywhere close to their previous stature in the NFL -- both in numbers of them and how many of them were stars.

Another important factor is that for a large portion of the NFL's history the schedule was 12 games, then was increased to 14 games in 1961 and then to 16 in '78. And even extrapolating the old numbers to today's increased schedule, the passing game didn't have the importance then, nor the fixation on stats and reaching certain numbers. Fantasy football in part drives the obsession with statistics as well as egotistical receivers and QBs reaching various single game and seasonal "milestones" and records. Look at the numbers of the great passers like Unitas, Starr, Namath and even more recent ones like Fouts and Marino, and they're often dwarfed by today's output among top quarterbacks.
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I'll work on the RB post this morning, should be ready within the next 90 minutes or so. I want to circle back to what you say here at some point, it may be a few days b/c I want to get my thoughts organized coherently. I was a WR (played some CB & FS & a weird FS/LB hybrid that we termed "Spur") and have always been WR focused so it's why I have always harped on receiving metrics and actually what led me to this site in the first place years ago. In doing a deep dive the past couple of weeks (going back to 1970 for both receiving yards and rushing yards)....I've reached a couple of "theories" and/or "hypotheses" ("theory" or "hypotheses" in the scientific method context, meaning I had done a literature review and was designing an experiment and developed a "hypothesis" to test or that I conducted an experiment and the results of the experiment garnered me a "principal"/"law"/"rule"/"theory"..........a.k.a. there are no "conclusions" in the scientific method, just principals/laws/rules/theories...............so instead of saying "after doing weeks of research I have reached a conclusion..." I use a differing terminology). Starting in 1988........there was a level of dropoff of receiving production SO VAST AND DRASTIC, that it appears statistically impossible to have occurred without intention. Meaning...., looking at the numbers from 1970-1987 (yes, I'm aware of 1987 not have a 1k, but it was a strike year and there were plenty of guys that would have had 1k if it were a full season).....1988 is unexplainable......IF you try to attribute it to coincidence or any accepted principle of randomness. The dropoff is SO drastic and so widespread that it cannot be explained by anything unintentional or happenstance. So I have done a lot a work with receiving yardage and done a few different types of analysis but I haven't been able to do the same with rushing yardage because I don't have the familiarity yet with the names of the players (remember, I'm a WR guy at heart), but I'm getting there. But one thing I can already tell you, which confirms exactly what you guys have said.....the rushing production drops off within the same time period and it also has to be intentional (although the dropoff isn't as sudden as isn't as drastic relative to receiving....but in absolute terms it's very quick and also defies happenstance/randomness/unintentional circumstances). It also never bounces back the way receiving has and CONTINUES to. But anyways, that's gonna be a long thing (I really apologize with how freaking wordy I am folks, genuinely.) to compose and I'm going to work on the rushing yards right now. I'll make it it's own post. Standby,
 
jeffcorner said:
I'll work on the RB post this morning, should be ready within the next 90 minutes or so. I want to circle back to what you say here at some point, it may be a few days b/c I want to get my thoughts organized coherently. I was a WR (played some CB & FS & a weird FS/LB hybrid that we termed "Spur") and have always been WR focused so it's why I have always harped on receiving metrics and actually what led me to this site in the first place years ago. In doing a deep dive the past couple of weeks (going back to 1970 for both receiving yards and rushing yards)....I've reached a couple of "theories" and/or "hypotheses" ("theory" or "hypotheses" in the scientific method context, meaning I had done a literature review and was designing an experiment and developed a "hypothesis" to test or that I conducted an experiment and the results of the experiment garnered me a "principal"/"law"/"rule"/"theory"..........a.k.a. there are no "conclusions" in the scientific method, just principals/laws/rules/theories...............so instead of saying "after doing weeks of research I have reached a conclusion..." I use a differing terminology). Starting in 1988........there was a level of dropoff of receiving production SO VAST AND DRASTIC, that it appears statistically impossible to have occurred without intention. Meaning...., looking at the numbers from 1970-1987 (yes, I'm aware of 1987 not have a 1k, but it was a strike year and there were plenty of guys that would have had 1k if it were a full season).....1988 is unexplainable......IF you try to attribute it to coincidence or any accepted principle of randomness. The dropoff is SO drastic and so widespread that it cannot be explained by anything unintentional or happenstance. So I have done a lot a work with receiving yardage and done a few different types of analysis but I haven't been able to do the same with rushing yardage because I don't have the familiarity yet with the names of the players (remember, I'm a WR guy at heart), but I'm getting there. But one thing I can already tell you, which confirms exactly what you guys have said.....the rushing production drops off within the same time period and it also has to be intentional (although the dropoff isn't as sudden as isn't as drastic relative to receiving....but in absolute terms it's very quick and also defies happenstance/randomness/unintentional circumstances). It also never bounces back the way receiving has and CONTINUES to. But anyways, that's gonna be a long thing (I really apologize with how freaking wordy I am folks, genuinely.) to compose and I'm going to work on the rushing yards right now. I'll make it it's own post. Standby,
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This was an interesting read, thanks sir!
 
1988 is a good year to focus on, however if Whites were excluded from playing WR or pass catching TE, it would have taken a number of years to “trickle up”. So likely early 1980s the discrimination at the university level went nuclear anti-White. It just took until 1988 for the greats (Largent, Watson, Clark, Christensen, etc) to age out or retire for the sudden drop off to happen and get entrenched for the next decade.
 
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