Here's another nice article about 7/11:
Why New England Patriots WR Chris Hogan is poised for a huge year in 2017
By
Kevin Duffy
FOXBOROUGH -- Bill Belichick dropped a surprising line in an otherwise humdrum radio interview earlier this week, telling WEEI hosts Christian Arcand and Andy Hart that Patriots wide receiver Chris Hogan is "one of our best players."
This is rare praise from Belichick, who is usually happy to list off adjectives when describing a player -- "smart, tough, instinctive," -- but hesitant to dish out superlatives.
A Google search of "'Bill Belichick'" and 'one of our best players'" yields quotes about Devin McCourty (2015), McCourty
again in 2011, Logan Mankins (
2011), Randy Moss (
2009), and Adam Vinatieri (
2004).
There may have been others, of course, but those are the five mentions that popped up online. All four of the above players have been Pro Bowlers. At least two are surefire Hall of Famers.
The timing of Belichick's comment was especially curious. Generally, Belichick is not in the business of inflating expectations, which is precisely what a line like that about a player like Hogan will do.
But here are the facts: Hogan is an incredibly gifted athlete. He can run past any secondary. He can dropkick field goals from 45 yards out. As Jimmy Garoppolo said last year, "I saw him punt last week or so, and he punted the sh-- out of the ball."
Chris Hogan is a freak athlete
New England Patriots WR Chris Hogan is athletic as anybody in the team's locker room.
The question is, what exactly will that role entail?
Let's examine what he did for the Pats in 2016.
Hogan saw 80 targets -- 54 from a perimeter position (X or Z) and 26 from the slot (Y). He caught 20 of 26 targets, or 76.9 percent, from that position. From outside locations, he caught 35 of 54 targets (64.8 percent). And he produced a number of big plays in the slot; nine of his 20 catches went for 20+ yards.
On post routes or go routes run out of the slot, the Tom Brady-Chris Hogan connection was unbelievably efficient, completing 8-of-9 passes for 307 yards (34.1 yards per pass attempt) and two touchdowns.
This represents a small sample size, but the ridiculous success rate could lead the Pats to expand Hogan's downfield opportunities from the slot position.
Hogan also proved effective on quick-hitting routes. The Patriots made an effort to get the ball in his hands immediately. Fifteen of his targets were on wide receiver screens or quick flat routes (plays that typically develop in less than two seconds). Another 10 targets were on short slants or drags, the chain-moving plays that have long defined the Patriots' offense.
This is where Julian Edelman has thrived. Truly replacing him will be impossible. Neither Hogan nor Brandin Cooks can match Edelman after the catch. Edelman's greatest asset is his innate ability to dodge the first tackler -- almost regardless of where he is on the field and how his body is contorted at the moment. Edelman can
always make the first guy miss and gain a handful of extra yards, often finishing the play with a forward dive.
Hogan and Cooks will not be able to replicate that skill. But based on the type of routes Hogan ran in 2016, and based on
Cooks' elite quickness, both players (along with Danny Amendola) can get open quickly and allow Tom Brady to throw before the pass rush becomes a factor. These short routes can put the Patriots in favorable second-down and third-down situations. Sometimes, they help set up big play opportunities down the field.
"Nothing good happens when I've got the ball in my hands," Brady said earlier this month. "So the faster I can get it out of my hands, the better it is, which means we've got to have a lot of trust."
It's easy to spot the trust Hogan has earned from Brady. And, after a terrific training camp, it's reasonable to project a huge year from Hogan.
Consider: Hogan had one catch for three yards in two games with Jacoby Brissett a year ago. He also missed a Week 11 game at San Francisco due to a back injury. If we sub out those three games and insert the three playoff games, Hogan had 54 receptions for 1,009 yards and six touchdowns over 16 games.
The receptions should increase in 2017, even if Hogan is the No. 3 option behind Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. In 2014, Brandon LaFell, the clear No. 3 behind Edelman and Gronkowski, pulled in 74 catches for 953 yards and seven scores.
Hogan is an ascending talent who has enjoyed an excellent training camp, capped by a four-catch, 70-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Lions. He is, in Belichick's words,
"way ahead" of where he was a season ago, his first with the Patriots.
Chris Hogan will play a major role in a 2017 Patriots offense that can no longer lean on Julian Edelman.
LaFell was a solid possession receiver. Hogan offers better deep speed and more versatility.
Traditionally an offense that has operated horizontally, the Patriots have three key pass-catchers that can push the defense vertically in Cooks, Gronkowski, and Hogan. They have all five starters returning along the offensive line, a group that should be able to pass-protect well enough to allow deep routes to develop.
There's no question that the Patriots must now tweak their offense to suit the strengths of their top three receivers.
As Belichick said Tuesday, "I think you always have to be ready to go with what you've got."
Down the catalyst of their 2016 offense, they've still got Cooks, Gronkowski, and Hogan, two proven 1,000-yard receivers and a third who is likely on the verge of a breakout season.
http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2017/08/julian_edelman_injury_chris_ho.html
