Denard Robinson and Voodoo Mathematics

[Riddlewire]

Loyal caste journalist Pete Fiutak wrote an article (not gonna link it, I hate that guy) suggesting that Denard Robinson was more deserving of the Heisman trophy than Cam Newton. His argument was based on the large amounts of offensive production compiled by Robinson, with particular focus on the rushing yardage from the QB position.
I care very little about the Heisman trophy, but I strongly reject the notion that QBs who play in a spread-option offense should be eligible for any praise at all. I have long asserted that quarterbacks in these offenses are nothing but "stat accumulators". The huge yardage numbers that they rack up are essentially meaningless because they don't help their teams win. It's merely a shift of production from other positions (WR & RB) to the quarterback slot. It certainly doesn't make them the "Most Outstanding Players" in college football.
Out of the Top 5 players in Total Offense in Division 1A, three of them play in what are considered spread-option style offenses (or are otherwise run-heavy from the QB position). Those three are Robinson, Dominique Davis from ECU, and Robert Griffin from Baylor. So, according to Fiutak, these three offensive titans should have their teams on top of the college football world, right? Let's take a look at their records.

Against D1A competition:
1. Michigan is 6-4
Well, that's not great. How about the teams they beat? The combined record of the teams Michigan beat is 28-37(.431). The combined conference record of those same teams is 10-24(.294). Terrible. So, not only was Michigan getting wins against poor competition, but those teams were actually worse than they appear. They were all loading up on cupcakes in non-conference play themselves. Verdict: Michigan sucks and Denard Robinson is a stat accumulator.

2. East Carolina is 6-5
Six wins might earn bowl eligibility, but it's not a good season. East Carolina's victims? They have a combined record of 33-33(.500). Well, that's... mediocre. The conference records of their opponents? 21-21(.500). Nothing special there. Verdict: East Carolina is a very average team and Dominique Davis (#4 in FBS Total Offense) is a stat accumulator.

3. Baylor is 6-5
Another non-dominant team. The combined record of their D1A victims is a heinous 23-42(.364). The combined conference record of those teams is 11-32(.256). More cupcake munchers. Verdict: Baylor is a total fraud. They beat up on garbage teams and Robert Griffin is a stat accumulator.


So, what's the point of all this? Clearly teams that run a spread offense with a running quarterback can be good. The two highest ranked teams in college football feature just such an offense. But huge numbers from the QB position in these offenses aren't an indication of superior performance. They are merely a side effect. Denard Robinson is neither an elite quarterback, nor is he one of the best players in college football. He is the fortunate recipient of an imbalanced design.

 

[Jimmy Chitwood]

this is a great post, Riddlewire! i love well-researched, factual, well-written posts like this.

posts such as thesewill bean integral part of the battle, if the Caste System is ever to be brought down. keep up the good work, sir!

 

[Jack Lambert]

Great article/post Riddle!

Edited by: Jack Lambert

 

[white is right]

I have never seen a 6-4 qb ever get the praises of Denard Robinson. After getting Michigan off to a decent start he had a parody of the Simon and Garfunkle hit named after him. You would think Michigan was a perennial doormat in Big 10.....

 

[Riddlewire]

I wasn't even planning on making any kind of argumentative post about this subject. I consider the Heisman to be a media-controlled joke. But, it was too windy to paint today, so I found myself surfing the net and came across that jerk's article. Free time + Agitation = New Thread.

Actually, when I started putting it all together, it was much larger. I collected statistics on defensive data of opponents, offensive production as a percentage of total offense, year-after-year production in spread offenses, offensive line recruit rankings, comparison data between all QBs that have ever played for Gus Malzahn, dental records for defensive coordinators... et cetera. But I got buried in data. I spent a couple of hours cutting stuff out until I just got sick of it. The end result is the rather half-assed effort that I eventually posted. I still think it's a good start of an argument, though.

Newton has huge statistical numbers, but would anyone consider him a #1 draft pick if Auburn had two losses on the season (they lost to Arkansas, that game was a sham)? Look at Auburn's offensive numbers this season: 42PPG and 505ypg. Everyone credits Newton for making that happen. But look at Tulsa's numbers from Malzahn's second year there: 47PPG and 565ypg. Huge numbers, just spread around better. The reason Auburn has managed to turn that offensive output into an undefeated record is because A)The SEC is still an old school conference that isn't used to the sling-and-sprint offenses like CUSA was, B)Auburn has had help getting to 11-0 and the season isn't over yet, and C)Gus Malzahn is a game changing genius. If Mozart can be called a 'genius' even though he knew nothing about astrophysics, then so can anyone who is smarter than everyone else in their field. And Malzahn's history proves that he knows offense better than anyone else in the sport. And not just the spread option. In his one year at Arkansas, they had the #2 offense in the conference and the QB never took off running. It was a traditional play action offense with a lot of power running featuring a fullback (The Juggernaut). They didn't shift heavily to the Wildcat until the next season.

The point: Auburn is a successful team. But it's not because of any supreme abilities of Cam Newton. He has huge offensive numbers, but it's not because he has new or unique talents that make those numbers possible. Newton, just like Robinson, is the beneficiary of a decided design, the purpose of which is to exploit the "newness" of this strategy and hit opposing teams with offensive concepts that they have little experience defending. Any QB with similar physical skills would be just as successful as Newton. Taylor Martinez, Andrew Luck, Dan Persa, Colin Kaepernick, Tate Forcier*, G.J. Kinne. All would have equal offensive numbers to Newton if they were playing for Malzahn this year.

The good news is that football is in constant flux. All gimmick systems eventually get "figured out" one way or another. Once coaches build teams to stop the spread option, Malzahn and other innovative coaches will move onto something new (or old), and the Cam Newtons of the world won't have a place on the football field any more.

------------------------------------------------------------
*Forcier is a great runner, but when he plays he isn't allowed to carry the ball. He only averages 2.7 carries/game compared to Robinson's 20.6 carries/game.

 

[Deadlift]

As far as passing numbers are concerned, Newton "padded" his against Louisiana-Monroe, Chattanooga and Ole Miss.

He threw for something like 184 against Georgia.

There are some non-SEC teams that I would like to see face this Auburn team.. Wisconsin, TCU and Oklahoma. They are all playing damn good ball right now; all are generally very competent on offense and defense.

If Alabama doesn't take care of business this week, we'll probably have a boring Auburn/Oregon "National Championship" game, and Auburn would probably win.. (and they might get some "help" if needed.)

 

[Sgt.ClaytonBigsby]

they both would make great field negros. robinson could run the cotton over to cam real fast and cam can put it on his strong gorilla back. the whole field would be picked in no time

 

[FootballDad]

Only a half-wit troll would make a ridiculous statement such as that.

 

[Colonel_Reb]

Only a half-wit troll would make a ridiculous statement such as that.

It could be one of the jock sniffing ignoramuses from the Louisiana Tech board.

 

[Jack Lambert]

they both would make great field negros. robinson could run the cotton over to cam real fast and cam can put it on his strong gorilla back. the whole field would be picked in no time

Yeah, only a loser who has no idea what this site is about would make a statement like that.

 

[Don Wassall]

Clayton Bigsby is a black "white supremacist" character from the Dave Chappelle show. Nice try, "Sarge."

 

[FootballDad]

After watching sCam Newton's underwhelming performance in the National Championship game, in which the opposing black quarterback was more underwhelming, thereby defaulting the win to Newton's gang, I looked back on this thread and what Riddlewire wrote. Since Oregon was more accustomed to defending "sling and sprint" offenses than SEC schools, Malzahn went to a more "ground and pound" with Dyer to win the game, and Newton's stats accumulation was way down.
I posted a version of Riddlewire's analysis over on a well-known NFL draft fansite on a Cam Newton thread, and am now eagerly awaiting my "negative rep".

 

[Riddlewire]

I would say that the national championship game is conclusive proof of my claim.
There were 1,000 yards of offense in that game, most of it compiled by the quarterbacks. But the final score was only 22-19. That's... unheard of. There's no question in my mind that in the history of college football, among all games that produced a thousand yards of offense, that was the lowest scoring game by far.
More observational proof is available, however, in the fact that most everyone agrees that both quarterbacks looked lousy all game long. Considering they both had over 300 total yards of offensive production, that's a pretty amazing feat. Yet nearly everyone (including afflete-worshipping "scouts" that posted about the game) agrees that both quarterbacks looked very poor in the game.
I'm skipping over theory and going straight from hypothesis to proof. Spread option offenses are a fraud. They make any quarterback look better than he is by diverting a team's statistical production to his line. If spread option teams defeat their opponents it's because they had good offensive lines, good play-calling, and a good performance out of the defense. All of these things can be said of Auburn in that game.

 

[celticdb15]

From ESPN.com Terry Foster is black sports writer from Detroit..

March 5, 2012 at 4:52 pm
[h=1]Michigan QB Denard Robinson grateful for those who paved the way[/h]

• Terry Foster
• 6 Comments

Room Brightening Smile!

[h=6]Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson gets a shout-out from President Obama during a speech on campus in January. (Daniel Mears/Detroit News)[/h]
Lem Barney wanted to be a quarterback. But not many black players played the position in the 1950s. He was told his athleticism and quickness would be better suited at cornerback, running back and special teams.
Denard Robinson also wanted to be a quarterback. Like Barney, he is very athletic. But Robinson enjoyed more leverage because minds are more open today. He will prepare himself during spring ball for his senior season at the University of Michigan, where he was the team's MVP the last two years.
As we transition from Black History Month, one of sport's most important positions is now open to all. Robinson, 21, is usually the fastest and most athletic player on game days. That was not always a recipe to become quarterback. Barney, 66, is living proof.
"Yes, I know the history," Robinson said. "I know you have to take advantage of this."
As the starting quarterback at U-M, Robinson has one of the most high-profile jobs in amateur sports. It lands him on national television most Saturdays. He even was singled out during a speech on campus by President Obama.
"I will cherish that the rest of my life and will tell the grandkids about it," Robinson said. "I was so excited that I can't even put it into words."
Robinson understood the importance of being a quarterback, even as a freshman at Deerfield Beach High School in Florida. Robinson was a quarterback for much of his youth, but coaches wanted him to switch positions to get him on the field as a freshman on the varsity team. But Robinson wanted to play quarterback and instead played on the junior varsity.
Robinson started his final three seasons on varsity at quarterback.
Two years before Robinson was born, Doug Williams was named Most Valuable Player of the Super Bowl XXII while leading the Washington Redskins to victory over the Denver Broncos. It was a historic event and helped paved the way for future black quarterbacks.
Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III might be the second pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. The Indianapolis Colts are expected to pick Stanford quarterback Robert Luck first and the St. Louis Rams are shopping the second pick because they already have quarterback Sam Bradford. Teams are looking to trade up to get Griffin.
Robinson knows the history of pioneers like Steve McNair, Randall Cunningham and Williams. He knows they paved the way for him and other black quarterbacks.
"I am happy to be part of something like this and see the different mindsets of today," Robinson said. "I am grateful for this and will try to take advantage of it, God willing."
Robinson grew up admiring Michael Vick when he played for Virginia Tech and the Atlanta Falcons. They shared a similar style and Robinson enjoyed Vick's swagger and confidence on the field.
"I want to be at that level that he plays at," Robinson said. "To compare me to him means a lot to me. It's the way he can control the ball — that's one of the things I learned from him. You could tell in college he was a man playing among boys. That's one of the things I always looked at and it made me want to be a quarterback more."
What if our thinking was different for Barney, who was born in 1945 in Gulfport, Miss.?
He grew into a strong, fast kid with a good arm. Barney wanted to play quarterback, but was told blacks don't play that position.
"I think I would have made a good quarterback," Barney said. "That is the position I really wanted to play." (To say he would have been a better Quarterback is purely speculation)
Instead, Barney switched and it all worked out for him. He was named one of the NFL's 100 greatest players and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame following his Lions career, which included 56 career interceptions. (Looks like coach made the right decision in the position change eh?)
Like Barney, Robinson also played baseball, basketball and ran track. But he always gravitated toward football and the quarterback position.
"Ever since I could remember, football was on my mind," Robinson said. "It was just one of those things where I was always around. It was easy to get a game going."
Robinson was not aware that U-M was more open-minded than many schools in giving blacks a chance to play quarterback. That began in 1971, when Bo Schembechler landed Dennis Franklin from Ohio. He was Michigan's first black quarterback, a tag that often annoyed him. But he started at Michigan from 1972-74 and guided the Wolverines to a 30-2-1 record and shared the Big Ten title all three seasons with Ohio State.
In the late 1980s, Demetrius Brown and Michael Taylor battled for the starting spot.
"I think guys like Doug Williams showed we can do anything," Robinson said. "I don't want to turn it into a racial thing, but we can do things like that. We just never used to get a shot."

**Denard, plenty of white kids never get a shot no matter what their measurables are because it is a racial thing. How can they compete with that room brightening smile, never ending potential and that do it all swagger blacks bring to the game?

 

[celticdb15]

I find it funny because if Denard wants to play in the pros he'll have to take the path of Antwaan Randle El. He's too short and slightly built to ever be an NFL QB..

 

[white is right]

Even draft scout.com has him rated only as a marginal qb prospect and they are a caste trend setter as they consistently underrate White players that play in the speed positions. Only until there is an overwhelming consensus do they ever flip flop on prospects like a Gerhart or further back Leonard.

 

[jaxvid]

No one expects Robinson to be an NFL QB. Lem Barney could suit up today and be a better QB then Robinson. The article by Drew Sharp was just some racial pandering which is what Sharp is paid to do. Sharp regularly criticizes Denards passing skills in his columns. He is paid to stir the pot and expected to do mindless black cheerleading so he blathered on about Robinson only because Denard is black and plays QB.

Robinson is not Cam Newton or Robert Griffin, black guys that can throw somewhat accurately. Robinson is beyond horrible at passing. Fortunately he is way too short to even be considered for the position in the NFL. So there won't be any controversy when he is drafted as a receiver. He will be the next Tedd Ginn or Antwan Randle EL (who I have compared him to since he first came on the scene).

 

[Riddlewire]

Geno Smith and Lying Statistics

This article isn't directly related to my thread. It does, however, expose a similar flaw of perception, so I'm posting it here to remind and reinforce the theme presented by the original post. Feel free to read the whole article by MNixon25 (couldn't find his name).

The Manipulation of Passing Statistics, West Virginia Edition

...
Sometimes, nothing can be more misleading than the typical box score. As I recently prepared to chart last season’s match up between West Virginia and Cincinnati, I decided to take a quick look at the box score ahead of time. What I learned was that West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith had simply lit up the Bobcats: 29 of 43, 372 yards, and one touchdown. After learning of Smith’s big day, I was extremely eager for the aerial assault I was about to witness. Sadly though, my excitement quickly wore off once the game tape started to roll.
...

In breaking down the numbers, several key things were revealed:

1. Smith accumulated 44% of his charted passing yards without ever throwing the ball more than two yards downfield.
2. Smith’s completion percentage dropped from 93% to 53% to 33% as his PYD increased throughout the categories.
3. Of the 31 passing plays charted, Smith threw the ball further than 13 yards downfield just three times.

...

What the box score doesn’t tell is how Smith did little more than ‘shovel/touch pass’ the ball to his talented wide receiver, Tavon Austin, and then simply watches Austin rack up some gaudy stats.

This isn’t a post meant to condemn the way passing statistics are viewed, but simply meant to show that not all passing yards are created equal. Throughout much of the West Virginia/Cincinnati game, Smith was simply getting the ball to his fellow playmakers as quickly as possible and became a bystander who racked up passing statistics. I understand that getting the ball to your playmakers is the point of a coaching. But statistically speaking, the way that is done can be misleading to the casual box score-reading fan.


When inflated stats can be the tiny difference needed to earn an All-American honor or even the Heisman Trophy, the way certain players accumulate stats should enter the equation. Obviously, West Virginia isn’t the only team to rack up passing stats off these ‘glorified handoffs’, they just happened to be the one I was recently charting. To sum it up, this West Virginia example simply demonstrates that there is a lot more to the overall statistical story of a game than what is generally portrayed in a simple box score.

And yet this fraud is considered a leading Heisman candidate for 2012, and will likely be drafted early by the NFL.

 

[Riddlewire]

I'm glad to see that this guy is still beating this drum. I just wish more people would pay attention.

Geno Smith led the statistical onslaught with a ridiculously efficient passing line; he went 32-for-36 for 323 yards and four touchdowns. But despite how strong Smith’s stats may appear, as discussed in a previous column, his numbers can be a bit deceiving.

Smith and Tavon Austin continue to provide one of the most misleading stat lines throughout the country. When targeting Austin, Smith went 10-for-10 for 53 yards and a touchdown. On those plays, the distances the passes traveled from the line of scrimmage were -4, -2, -4, -3, 4, -2, 1, 7, -4, and -3. That's an average of -1.1 yards per pass. West Virginia does an incredible job of finding ways to quickly get Austin the ball (shovels, bubbles, crosses) so he can use his remarkable athleticism to create yards after the catch. I guess it’s just a bonus these glorified handoffs drive up Smith’s completion rate and Austin’s reception statistics.

We're going to end up with another "RG3" here. A total fraud. A product of his coach's system. Smith will probably be no later than the fourth QB taken. And he shouldn't even be drafted.

 

[Leonardfan]

I'm glad to see that this guy is still beating this drum. I just wish more people would pay attention.



We're going to end up with another "RG3" here. A total fraud. A product of his coach's system. Smith will probably be no later than the fourth QB taken. And he shouldn't even be drafted.

Yea...Smiff is getting the RG3 treatment from BSPN and is now the Heisman favorite even though he has only played cupcakes :bowl:

 

[Leonardfan]

Just wanted to bump this thread to see if anyone has heard from riddlewire. I haven't seen any posts from him in a long time. I can't find the thread right now but the qb statistical measurement he came up with was amazing. He had some of the most insightful posts (with statistics to back them up). I hope he makes a return for the football season.