Best JJ-potential article I've seen, from the Augusta Free Press:
Where does J.J. fit in?
Chris Graham
chris@augustafreepress.com
It is a topic of discussion every time the Duke Blue Devils take the floor.
Coming back from a timeout, at the end of a big Duke run that puts a
game out of reach, after a flurry of long-range jumpers from a certain #4,
the chatter between the play-by-play man and the color analyst turns to
the upcoming NBA draft.
"Given the fact that NBA teams - many, many of them - have such a hard
time scoring, there would have to be a place for J.J. Redick on somebody's
team. I would be flabbergasted if there wasn't," said college-basketball
broadcast analyst Dan Bonner, who has engaged in a few of these on-air
discussions himself in recent weeks.
"You look every night, there's an NBA team that doesn't get 80 points.
Oftentimes, they don't score 70 points. So if you can have an offensive
weapon like J.J. Redick, then I would think that they would jump at the
chance to utilize it," Bonner told The Augusta Free Press.
It would seem that Redick - currently second in the nation in scoring with
27.8 points per game for the second-ranked Dookies - would be a lock
to go in the lottery in the June pro draft. But questions about his size -
Redick is smallish for an NBA two guard at 6-4, 190 - and his ball-
handling and defensive skills have at least some in the know wondering
how he will fit in at the next level.
"There's a lot of differing views on him. Some people think he's going to
be an impact player, and other people think he's going to be a role
player," said Jeff Fox, an NBA draft analyst at
www.collegehoops.net.
"I think he's going to be somewhere in between the two," Fox told the
AFP. "I don't think he's going to be a superstar. I also don't see him riding
the pine. I think he's going to be a solid player because of his shooting
and scoring abilities."
Demonstrating the difference of opinion that is out there is Jonathan
Givony of
www.hoopshype.com - who calls Redick "a definite starter" who
could help a number of NBA teams right now.
"We have him ranked as the top shooting guard in the draft - or the
second-best shooting guard, if you want to call Arkansas' Ronnie Brewer
a shooting guard," Givony told the AFP.
"I think right now he's a top-10 pick, and I really don't see him falling out
of the lottery. It's early, and he could have a bad NCAA tournament, or he
could get hurt. But right now, he's a strong lottery prospect," Givony said.
This discussion wouldn't have anywhere near the legs that it has shown to
date if Redick hadn't stepped up his play as a senior. Known for three
years almost exclusively as a three-point threat, Redick has added to his
repertoire a variety of mid-range jumpers and dashing drives inside the
paint.
"One thing that is really important to note is how dramatically he has
improved his all-around game," said Jim Johnson, a regular contributor to
www.dukebasketballreport.com who blogs at
www.thecourtmaster.net.
"You've heard a lot about his conditioning and all that. But he has really
improved his skill-set to where he is much more than just a catch-and-
shoot kind of player," Johnson told the AFP.
"You saw some glimpses of this last year when he could occasionally take
people off the dribble. He's always moved extremely well without the ball.
This year, too, his shot selection is a lot better," Johnson said.
Bonner said the issue that he hears from the NBA scouts that he talks to
is that "they don't know whether or not he's going to be able to create his
own shot in the NBA."
"The NBA is such a one-on-one, two-on-two kind of league, they don't
spend a lot of time running guys off screens like J.J. Redick does at Duke.
So one of the things that they look at is, can he get his own shot? That is
one concern I have heard. My opinion would be, of course he can get his
own shot," Bonner said.
"The one thing that I think he still has difficulty with is he can beat you off
the dribble when he's wheeling off a screen and moving the way he does,
and you have to go and close out on him really quick, because you're so
worried about him shooting the three that he gets around you. But from
what I've seen, he still has a hard time when he's just standing, say, out in
between the half-court line and the three-point line, and he's got the ball
in his hands, and it's just you and him, there's no screens or anything like
that, he's not so quick that he can just explode around a guy. I think
that's what the NBA people are talking about," Bonner said.
"My response to anybody who would ask is, look at what he's done in
terms of improving himself as a college player. And if anybody thinks that
he won't work every bit as hard to improve himself as a professional
player, then there's something wrong with you," Bonner said.
"I think J.J. Redick will be a very good professional basketball player. But I
think he will have to get himself in the right situation, and if he does that,
I think he can be an all-star, and he can be an all-star for a long time,"
Bonner said.
Johnson's take is that he doesn't know that Redick will "necessarily be a
star, but I certainly think he will be a good starter for an NBA team."
"The player that I compare him to is Kyle Korver, who played at Creighton
a few years ago. He's pretty much a catch-and-shoot kind of player who
can't play a lick of defense, and yet he's starting for the Philadelphia
76ers," Johnson said. "Redick is his superior, I think, in every area of his
game. So if Korver can start, I think not only can Redick start, but he
might even be close to the all-star level."
Fox, who sees Redick as a late lottery pick, doesn't see him as a megastar
- "but there are enough smart coaches who will be able to use his unique
gifts to still make him an effective player for sure," Fox said.
Givony points to the relative dearth of pure shooters in the NBA as
Redick's saving grace.
"He's not the most versatile guy. He's a one-position guy. He's a shooting
guard. But what's good for him, if you look at the last six or seven drafts
in terms of shooting guards, there really haven't been a whole lot of guys
to kind of stock up the shelf considering the guys who have retired like
Reggie Miller and Allan Houston. Shooting guard is a position that a lot of
teams are going to be looking to fill," Givony said.