Black QBs in the NFL

I decided to take a look at a few stats that demonstrate if a team has a good offense or not, and to the surprise of no one here at CF the top 10 is mostly helmed by white qb’s and the bottom dwellers is almost all black qb’s. For example in yards per play 7/10 are white and 9/10 worst have black qb’s with the one exception being Cincinnati, who would have a top five or at worst top 10 offense if Burrow didn’t get hurt. For EPA 8/12 best are white and from 20-32, 10 have black qb’s! The only teams with white qbs are the bengals (burrow injury), vikings (legit terrible), and giants which I assume has to do mostly with the Russell Wilson games he started. And in yards per attempt we have whites in 8/11 top spots and 8/11 bottom being black with the exception being again the bengals, denver (surprising) and jacksonville (also surprising). Correlation doesn’t always equal causation, but the evidence seems to suggest that if you want a good offense, get a white QB.
 
The black quarterbacks had their banner week in the 8th Sunday of the season. For the first time this year, The Year of the Black Starting QB, have they managed to win the majority of the interracial matchups. Good for those plucky underdogs. Will week 9 revert back to them being beaten like drums or will the black power movement continue to build momentum? Stay tuned.

Also, for those keeping score at home:

White vs black
Week 1: 9-2
Week 2: 7-2
Week 3: 8-1
Week 4: 3-1
Week 5: 4-3
Week 6: 6-3
Week 7: 3-1
Week 8: 4-5
Week 9: 6-1

Edit to add: Week 9
 
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Looking like 6-1 again if I’m not mistaken!

Posting this everywhere on social media to ruffle some feathers.
 
For the past few seasons, black QBs have dominated fantasy predictions and projections thanks mainly to their running ability. It wasn't unusual to see just Josh Allen and Joe Burrow (when healthy) ranked among the top ten in any given week's rankings. But just now checking the Week 10 rankings on a pay site I consider to be the best one, we find:

1. Allen
2. Herbert
3. Dart
4. Nix
5. Purdy
6. Stafford
7. Caleb Williams
8. Maye
9. Jones
10. Mayfield

Even Lamar Jackson has dropped out of the top ten, coming in at number eleven. The dramatic rise and turnarounds of a number of White QBs in recent years, the continued excellence of others, combined with the rather dramatic decline of a number of black QBs is the biggest story of the 2025 season so far, one to feel great about.
 
Don Wassall said:
For the past few seasons, black QBs have dominated fantasy predictions and projections thanks mainly to their running ability. It wasn't unusual to see just Josh Allen and Joe Burrow (when healthy) ranked among the top ten in any given week's rankings. But just now checking the Week 10 rankings on a pay site I consider to be the best one, we find:

1. Allen
2. Herbert
3. Dart
4. Nix
5. Purdy
6. Stafford
7. Caleb Williams
8. Maye
9. Jones
10. Mayfield

Even Lamar Jackson has dropped out of the top ten, coming in at number eleven. The dramatic rise and turnarounds of a number of White QBs in recent years, the continued excellence of others, combined with the rather dramatic decline of a number of black QBs is the biggest story of the 2025 season so far, one to feel great about.
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Yes, we see the same thing in the NFL MVP odds, according to ESPN.

Josh Allen+175
Drake Maye+400
Patrick Mahomes+425
Matthew Stafford+600
Baker Mayfield+1600
Sam Darnold+2000
Justin Herbert+2000
 
For those keeping score at home:

White vs black
Week 1: 9-2
Week 2: 7-2
Week 3: 8-1
Week 4: 3-1
Week 5: 4-3
Week 6: 6-3
Week 7: 3-1
Week 8: 4-5
Week 9: 6-1
Week 10: 5-3
Week 11: 4-2
Week 12: 4-3
 
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Freethinker said:
For those keeping score at home:

White vs black
Week 1: 9-2
Week 2: 7-2
Week 3: 8-1
Week 4: 3-1
Week 5: 4-3
Week 6: 6-3
Week 7: 3-1
Week 8: 4-5
Week 9: 6-1
Week 10: 5-3
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You didn't count Houston vs Jacksonville right? Since Mills was playing for Houston. Also there should be an asterisk for the Giants loss as Dart went out with an injury and the loss was incurred with Wilson's ineptness. Nitpicking I know lol.
 
Leonardfan said:
You didn't count Houston vs Jacksonville right? Since Mills was playing for Houston. Also there should be an asterisk for the Giants loss as Dart went out with an injury and the loss was incurred with Wilson's ineptness. Nitpicking I know lol.
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Nope. The 3 loses were to Tua, Lamar and Caleb. However, you are right if you want to apply an asterisk there as Wilson was in for the Giants 4th quarter collapse.
 
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Here is a recent BSPN article that talks about the teams most likely to make a QB change next season.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...des-cuts-retirements-murray-tagovailoa-fields

The spoiler here is that Murray, Smith and Fields are listed as "on their way out". Then we have Tua in the "would move if they could" category. Young is mentioned as "evaluation time might be up". Penix falls into the "might face competition" section and Gabriel as a "placeholder for someone more exciting". All in all, of the quarterbacks mentioned for replacement or competition due to performance, 7 of the 9 are non-Whites. Only McCarthy and Shough are mentioned as needing competition or being a potential placeholder.

*I'm not counting Stafford or Rodgers, who are mentioned as potential retirements*
 
Freethinker said:
Here is a recent BSPN article that talks about the teams most likely to make a QB change next season.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...des-cuts-retirements-murray-tagovailoa-fields

The spoiler here is that Murray, Smith and Fields are listed as "on their way out". Then we have Tua in the "would move if they could" category. Young is mentioned as "evaluation time might be up". Penix falls into the "might face competition" section and Gabriel as a "placeholder for someone more exciting". All in all, of the quarterbacks mentioned for replacement or competition due to performance, 7 of the 9 are non-Whites. Only McCarthy and Shough are mentioned as needing competition or being a potential placeholder.

*I'm not counting Stafford or Rodgers, who are mentioned as potential retirements*
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Way too early to judge McCarthy and Shough.
 
I didn't watch any of the game but every report I've seen says that Shough "surprised" the "experts" by how well he played last week, well enough to most likely consign Rattler to the bench for the rest of the season. That's a White specialty of course, "surprising" the hive mind army that always expects them to come up lacking at whatever position they play.

McCarthy's struggled some but is improving. He's also a first round draft choice and Kevin O'Connell is a "quarterback whisperer" so it'll be a large upset if he doesn't develop into a strong starter.
 
McCarthy is 2-2 as a starter in his first season as a 22 year old. It’s absurd but predictable that the “experts” are eager to write him off.
 
White quarterbacks have only been bested one week so far this season.

White vs black
Week 1: 9-2
Week 2: 7-2
Week 3: 8-1
Week 4: 3-1
Week 5: 4-3
Week 6: 6-3
Week 7: 3-1
Week 8: 4-5
Week 9: 6-1
Week 10: 5-3
Week 11: 4-2
Week 12: 4-3
 
RGIII Jr. is set to miss yet another game in Week 15. Lamar Jackson has been a shell of himself most of the season. Cam Ward has been a flop, predictably. Mahomes is in decline, Murray and Fields have been awful. Who's the best black QB this season? Love, Williams? Actually it's been Dak Prescott but once again the Cowboys are going nowhere albeit with a slight chance of making the playoffs.

This season has been a disaster for black QBs, as Freethinker's post above illustrates. Will the draft "gurus" and the NFL set up the 2026 Draft to be yet another one dominated by black quarterbacks at the top?
 
Don Wassall said:
RGIII Jr. is set to miss yet another game in Week 15. Lamar Jackson has been a shell of himself most of the season. Cam Ward has been a flop, predictably. Mahomes is in decline, Murray and Fields have been awful. Who's the best black QB this season? Love, Williams? Actually it's been Dak Prescott but once again the Cowboys are going nowhere albeit with a slight chance of making the playoffs.

This season has been a disaster for black QBs, as Freethinker's post above illustrates. Will the draft "gurus" and the NFL set up the 2026 Draft to be yet another one dominated by black quarterbacks at the top?
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Yea, it’s not looking good for them this year. Almost all have flopped, or fell short of expectations, with the couple exceptions you mentioned.

White vs black
Week 1: 9-2
Week 2: 7-2
Week 3: 8-1
Week 4: 3-1
Week 5: 4-3
Week 6: 6-3
Week 7: 3-1
Week 8: 4-5
Week 9: 6-1
Week 10: 5-3
Week 11: 4-2
Week 12: 4-3
Week 13: 6-5
Week 14: 6-0*
Week 15: 6-3
*not counting Dolphins over Jets, as Taylor started not Cook. However that was the closest a non-White QB came to a win over a White QB.
 
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I'll have to do some digging through social media and find one of those posts "celebrating" the number of black starting QBs in the league and post a link to this thread.

With the news of Philip Rivers returning to the NFL I was going through my mental rolodex thinking of all his contemporaries.

Favre, Brady, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Matt Stafford, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Pennington, Jake Delhomme, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Kurt Warner. That was truly the golden age of QBs. Now look at the league.
 
Ironically, it was 4 years ago, on this date, that I started a thread in which I foresaw this trend (which Whitlock alludes to) starting to happen.

Basically, I saw that the NFL stopped developing White quarterback's drafted after round 1. This was, undoubtedly, done to make sure there would be a steady stream of teams needing "franchise quarterback's", which would almost exclusively be filled by black quarterbacks wildly over-hyped by the likes of Mel Kosher Jr., Louis Reddick, Bucky Brooks and Field Yates, ect.

As Whitlock pointed out, 6 of 7 quarterback's drafted top 5 the last 3 years have been black. Take away the likes of Warner, Flutie, Romo, Delhomme, Derek Carr, Cousins, Gannon, Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and dozens of others to fill the quarterback void, you are pretty much solely reliant on filling the void with an ex-first round "bust" (Trey Lance, Justin Fields) or drafting a fresh quarterback in round one.

Only thing that has a changed is Brock Purdy came along as a "token" latter rounder/undrafted quarterback, who excelled like crazy after the 49ers lost their starting and backup quarterback's in 2023.

castefootball.us

New NFL Caste System for Quarterbacks

Not sure if anyone else has noticed, but there's a new "Caste System" for quarterback's in the NFL: It seems only quarterback's that are allowed to become "entrenched starters" are "franchise quarterbacks". And the only way to become a "franchise quarterback" is to be a first round pick. This...
castefootball.us castefootball.us
Recently, looking back at drafts from 2015 to 2021, I've noticed few white QB's drafted after round 1 have been given any chance, except as an emergency starter (i.e Rudolph/Pitt) due to injuries. During that span, Winshew II (6th round) and Drew Lock (2nd) were pretty much the only white, non-1st rounders to get a legit shot (not due to injuries). All things considered, Minshew excelled on a horrid Jax team. Still, he was gone quickly and no one wanted him as a potential starter via trade? Lock showed potential in 2000 and deserved another shot, but Denver brought in perennially mediocre Ted Bridgewater?

Is this another progression of the Caste system?

If you can get rid of the likes of Warner, Flutie, Romo, Delhomme, Derek Carr, Cousins, Gannon and Tom Brady (or relegate them to back up status) before they can develop, that means there will be more available quarterback jobs (year-to-year) in the future, which opens the door to more black quarterbacks each year?

Just a theory.
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