Here's a great analysis of Ryan Swope, except at the end when they classify him as a "small receiver" when he's average-sized for the NFL. I'm also going to post it in the Swope thread. The site that published it is a subscription one, so the link at the end is to a Houston Texans DWF board that reprinted it (and which has a few good posts).
NFL DRAFT 2013 - WR-S
By R.C. Fischer
Release Date: 3/13/2013
NFL
Draft 2013: Statistical Analysis of WR Ryan Swope, Texas A&M
*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro-Day workouts,
Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy red-zone threat type WRs. Our WR-S/"small-WRs" are profiled by our computer as more slot and/or possession type WRs that are less typically physical, and rely more upon speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not as big a weapon for the red-zone.
So Tavon Austin runs a 4.34 time in the 40-yard dash and is immediately rushed to the top of many NFL Draft analysts' #1-3 overall WR rankings for the 2013 WR class. Ryan Swope runs a 4.34 time in the 40-yard dash and all we hear are crickets chirping. Swope is outside
the top-10 overall WR prospects for most every mainstream website today (currently the #20 overall WR for ESPN, and #12 for CBS Sports).
Swope ran the same 40-time as Austin at the 2013 NFL Combine, but had a higher vertical leap (+5"), a better broad jump (+5"), a longer arm length (1"+), and a stronger bench press (+2 reps). It's arguable that Swope should be judged as the stronger, more athletic version of Tavon Austin. At the absolute worst case, we could argue that Swope and Austin are the same athlete.
...but that would be misleading.
It's unfair to claim that Swope and Austin are roughly the same athlete, because Swope is nearly four inches taller and 30+ pounds heavier/more solid. That statement alone is worth its weight in NFL Draft gold. Why would you choose to take the 5'8", 174-pound version of a WR that is available in the 6'0", 205-pound "XXL" sizing.
No one in their right mind would pick the substantially smaller version of the identical athlete...except every website known to mankind has Austin as a definitive top-3 overall WR, and Swope somewhere between #10-20 on the WR prospect rankings...every website
except for us. We think it is insane to rate Austin as a better NFL WR prospect than Swope. Insane, delirious, hackneyed, mimicking, or ignorant...take your pick.
I know what some of you are thinking (besides the opening of, "well...everyone else says..."). You might be thinking that you've seen Austin play, and he was awesome, and you don't really remember anything exciting about Ryan Swope. Blame your national sports media, don't blame Swope. Blame a personal Jordy Nelson-esque bias, don't blame Swope.
Take a look at the following comparison of Austin vs. Swope with the following factors in
mind:
1) In 2012, Austin had three lower-level games before the video game performance by West Virginia against the non-defense of Baylor (where Geno threw for 8 TDs). I'll grant the Baylor game plus the next five games (Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma State) as the six games that represent Austin's toughest challenges of 2012 playing WR (after those games Austin became more of a RB).
2) In 2012, Johnny Football and Swope didn't seem to get rolling until midway through the season. Looking at Swope's final seven games in 2012 (minus the Sam Houston State joke of a game), he faced LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Alabama, Missouri, Oklahoma. We'll use those six difficult opponents to compare to Austin's six mentioned above.
Take the six game sample described for Austin and Swope, and you get the following per-game performance averages as a WR:
*8.5 receptions, 101.3 yards, 0.83 TDs = Swope
10.3 receptions, 103.8 yards, 1.00 TDs = Austin
Considering that the Baylor game was almost like two games-in-one for output for the team, Swope's performance/output against good-great competition was right there with Austin's.
Consider that Geno Smith threw the ball 47.0 times per-game, and Johnny Manziel a much lower 37.3 times per-game in that six-game comparison span...and I'd say Swope was probably a better performer on a "pound-for-pound" basis.
With Swope, you get just as high of a college output as Austin, the same athleticism, and a much sturdier, less injury-risk physical frame. With Austin, you get that one surreal
performance that he had against Oklahoma which made everyone orgasmic.
When I watch Swope on tape, I see more NFL versatility and functionality. Watching the college tape, many times Swope is catching passes over the middle, and defenders are smashing into him upon his catch, and then he bounces off the would-be tacklers like a pinball and keeps on trucking...and no one catches a truck with a 4.34 time in the 40-yard dash when it breaks free.
When I watch Austin's college tape, I see the speedy water bug weaving through traffic and folding upon any contact...what do you think will happen when he enters into NFL-sized congestion?
Swope is the superior NFL prospect over Austin. I'm not saying that Austin will be a bust in the NFL, it's just that Swope is the better NFL play.
*
Ryan Swope, Through the Lens of our "Small-WR" Scouting Algorithm
2012 wasn't even Swope's best college season (72 rec., 913 yards, 8 TD). Swope was an even better producer with the more NFL-like Ryan Tannehill in 2011 (89 rec., 1,207
yards, 11 TDs). 2011 may have been a touch easier because of the 2012 switch to the SEC. However, Swope did not fade in performance as the competition level was raised to facing the SEC powers. Against Alabama and LSU in 2012, Swope averaged 10.5 receptions for 96.0 yards and 0.5 TDs. His Alabama and LSU performances were arguably his best statistical games of 2012.
In Swope's three games as a starter against Oklahoma in his career -- 8.0 receptions, 129.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per-game (and a 100+ yard output in each of the three contests).
Swope has been a consistent performer for three seasons, catching 70+ passes per year with 800+ yards each season as well.
*
A list of the WRs who are over 200+ pounds and ran sub 4.4 time in the 40-yard dash in our historical database (alphabetically):
Andre Caldwell, Florida
Tyrone Calico, Mid Tenn. State
Stephen Hill, Ga. Tech
Chad Jackson, Florida
Calvin Johnson, Ga. Tech
Julio Jones, Alabama
Matt Jones, Arkansas
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland
Randy Moss, Marshall
Chaz Schilens, San Diego St
Ryan Swope, Texas
A&M
Javon Walker, Florida State
*
Swope has the physical measureables and solid on-field performance to be a good-great NFL prospect. We think he is being completely overlooked by the mainstream scouting websites and services.
*
The NFL "Small-WRs" that Ryan Swope most compares to statistically in college, within our system analysis:
It is not crazy at all to say that Ryan Swope is a Torrey Smith type of WR. Swope is a touch shorter with a little less vertical, so he is not the red-zone threat that Smith can be used as against the right CB matchup. Outside of Torrey being a bit taller with a better vertical...the rest of their on-field performances and physical dimensions are very similar in our grading.
I would also advance that Swope is potentially a taller, much faster, just as physical version of a Wes Welker.
*
WR-s Score Draft Yr Last First College H H W Power Strength Metric Speed Agility Metric
"Hands" Metric 8.21 2013 Swope Ryan Texas A&M 6 0.2 205 11.91 14.48
6.0411.60
2011 Smith Torrey Maryland 6 0.9 204 13.54 12.70 8.51
6.75
2012 Owusu Chris Stanford 5 11.4 196 12.45 12.21 3.22
10.83
2004 Evans Lee Wisconsin 5 10.7 197 9.41 13.45 10.83
10.58
2006 Jennings Greg W. Michigan 5
11.0 197 10.76 12.81 9.91
9.63
2010 Roberts Andre Citadel 5 10.7 195 9.42
12.44 10.59 6.25
2012 Ebert Jeremy Northwestern 5 10.8 200 9.90 11.64
10.15
*
*
Ryan Swope Overall Metrics Scouting Score = 8.21 ("B-"
grade level prospect)
*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of WRs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite WR.
All of the WR ratings are based on a 0-10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.
Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including
refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database.
"Power-Strength" = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical-size profiling, bench press strength, etc.* High scorers here project to be more physical, better
blockers, and less injury-prone.
"Speed-Agility" = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC, and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/create separation.
"Hands" = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand-size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next-level.
*
2013 NFL Draft outlook...
We see Swope being nationally rated as a 3rd-5th-round draft pick, and that's a fair value...since we value smaller WRs beyond the 2nd-round. However, Swope should be taken ahead of Tavon Austin...and then you can debate over Swope-Patton-Allen-Hopkins as the best slot/possession WR in the draft. I think Swope is definitely going to be
selected by the 3rd-round, with the possibility of sneaking into the late 2nd-round.
If I were advising an NFL franchise on the draft, and we needed a possession type WR (let's say I am representing the Patriots, Texans, or Vikings as an example)...I am all over Swope as a potential value proposition in the 3rd or 4th-round if he slides that far. You can have Keenan Allen in the 1st-round, or DeAndre Hopkins and Quinton Patton in the 2nd-round...I'll take Swope all day in the 3rd or 4th-round. If I was pressed to decide between all the quality, smaller WRs in the 2013 Draft -- I could argue Swope as the best of
the bunch due to his athleticism. It would come down to a choice of Allen and Swope for me...for fear of Hopkins' attitude and Patton being a little less athletic.
Swope is going to be as good in the NFL as the team/offense/QB he has to work with. Swope cannot single-handedly change an offense. He's not a Percy Harvin type of smaller WR, but he could be a 80-100 catch WR with the New England Patriots/Tom Brady (pre-Amendola or D. Jones) right away. He might can do so with the Houston Texans in 2013. Swope is an excellent WR to have as your possession/slot WR, with some upside to be a kick or punt returner. Swope is going to be one of the craftier selections for someone in the 2013 NFL Draft.
http://boards.houstontexans.com/showthread.php?t=36483
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