2009 Stanford Cardinal

[ToughJ.Riggins]

Stanford football: Best and worst bowl scenarios
http://blogs.mercurynews.com
Posted by Jon Wilner on November 13th, 2009 at 7:55 am
<snip
I wasn't going to details the Rose Bowl scenarios unless Stanford beat USC. But as we've gotten closer to kickoff, I figured it would be worth slapping on the Hotline so Cardinal fans have an idea of what to root for this weekend.

Also wanted to include the worst-case scenario, which would leave Stanford home for the holidays. Both are fairly unlikely, to about the same degree.

Best case: Stanford runs the table to finish 9-3/7-2:

Here's the simplest path to Pasadena â€" and it's not all that simple â€" in chronological order:

Nov. 14: Stanford beats USC
Nov. 14: Cal beats Arizona
Nov. 21: Stanford beats Cal
Nov. 21: Arizona beats Oregon
Dec. 3: Oregon beats Oregon State
Dec. 5: USC beats Arizona

That would leave the two-loss Cardinal in a tie atop the standings with Oregon, with Stanford moving on to the Rose Bowl by virtue of the head-to-head victory last week. (USC, Arizona and Oregon State would all have three league losses.)

Two thoughts on this scenario:

1. Stanford fans should be rooting like hell for Cal today.

If Arizona wins in Berkeley, the math gets much tougher for Stanford because it increases the chances of the Cats finishing with two losses (or less) â€" and Arizona's head-to-head victory would give it the tiebreaker advantage over Stanford.

(If Stanford beats USC and the Wildcats beat Cal, Oregon and ASU, they would clinch the Rose Bowl before stepping foot in the Coliseum on Dec. 5.)

2. Stanford might not know whether it's the Pac-10 champion until Dec. 5, the final day of the regular season and two weeks after Big Game.

Anything other than a two-team tie with Oregon that could possibly work for Stanford would likely mean a three-team tie, which brings the second tiebreaker step into play: Record against the team(s) that finishes fourth.
snip>

Knock on Wood

My Take: Bottom line is Harbaugh's coaching decisions against Arizona could cost them. I also don't have a lot of faith in the pool of FBS conference voters, giving Stanford an at large bid for a BCS bowl. I find most voting is rarely "white friendly" when it comes to sports. Stanford also doesn't have as large a nationwide fan base as a lot of FBS teams that will be looking for an at large bid. This could hurt them as well in the voters eyes who want "popular" BCS bowls.

 

[ToughJ.Riggins]

Forgot to add that the first three on this list happened so:
"whooah, we're half way there...whooah, livin' on a prayer"
...damn I better stop singing crappy music. Bon Jovi is overrated along with the other Jersey guy Bruce Springsteen.

 

[green fire317]

i hope Stanford makes the rose bowl. i am so sick of the Ohio State hype. Iowa would have won if Stanzi had not gotten hurt.

 

[Electric Slide]

i hope Stanford makes the rose bowl. i am so sick of the Ohio State hype. Iowa would have won if Stanzi had not gotten hurt.

I don't mind Ohio State hype, I just don't like it when they give Pryor all the credit. Yeah, he had a "great" completion percentage in the game on nearly all screen passes and quick slants. Despite poor QB play, Sanzenbacher has played commendably (would probably put be in the top ten receiving with McCoy or as QB.). Also, Ross Homan has played great, and they'd had three different white D-linemen start and rotate in at various points. As with others on this board, I don't hope for serious or debilitating injuries to players, but Terrell Pryor is a ghetto and I hope he pulls a hammy or his right bicep or something, and for Bauserman to come in and light up the field.

 

[Colonel_Reb]

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_13802724


Stanford
coach Jim Harbaugh took the podium at the Big Game Luncheon on Monday
and barely got a chance to talk about the Big Game.

Between
questions about his ongoing contract discussions and Toby Gerhart's
late-season Heisman push, Harbaugh spent much of his time defending a
decision to go for two with Stanford leading 48-21 in the fourth
quarter of Saturday's blowout of USC.

"There was an opportunity
to punch it in and we thought it was the right thing to do," Harbaugh
said. "We wanted to be full throttle the entire game. We felt like we
were going to get it and that's why we did it."

The two-point
attempt failed, but a touchdown on the Cardinal's next possession made
the final score 55-21, the most points USC has ever given up.

"Had
I known that they weren't going to score any more points and that we
were going to score another touchdown, I probably wouldn't have done
it," Harbaugh admitted.

Gerhart said the players on the field
knew how big their lead was but supported the call because "you never
feel safe against a dynamic team like USC."

"We've talked about being relentless all year long and putting teams away and that was an opportunity to do that," he added.

The
decision drew plenty of national attention â€" including an ESPN piece
asking which was worse, the two-point attempt Saturday or Bill
Belichick's fourth-down gamble in New England's loss to Indianapolis a
day later.

The increased exposurecouldn't come at a better time for Harbaugh, who said he's close to extending his current contract.

"(Athletic
director) Bob Bowlsby and I will have an announcement on that in the
not-too-distant future," said Harbaugh, now in his third year. "I love
Stanford football â€" the stadium, the tradition, the players and the
coaches â€" and I hope to have the honor of coaching at Stanford for a
very long time."[*] After rushing for 401 yards and six
touchdowns in back-to-back upsets of Oregon and USC, Gerhart has thrown
himself into the middle of the Heisman race. He currently leads the
nation in attempts (26.2) and ranks second in touchdowns (19) and third
in yards (1,395).

"Toby represents everything the Heisman
Trophy represents," Harbaugh said. "He literally takes our football
team on his back. Not only should he be in the discussion, but based on
what he's accomplished, he should win it."

Stanford thought about
campaigning on Gerhart's behalf earlier this season, but the senior
tailback shot down plans for a billboard. Although it will be an uphill
climb to the program's first Heisman since Jim Plunkett won it in 1970,
Gerhart hopes the attention "might get some more NFL people looking at
me."[*] Tiger Woods will meet with the Cardinal before
Saturday's game and serve as an honorary captain. Woods was a two-time
All-American for Stanford and won the 1996 NCAA Championship.</span>Edited by: Colonel_Reb

 

[jaxvid]

Stanford should fire Harbaugh for his classless attempt at rubbing it in with the two point conversion attempt. (So Michigan can sign him

)

 

[ToughJ.Riggins]

Pac-10 Tiebreakers: What Oregon Ducks, Stanford Cardinal, Oregon State Beavers, and Arizona Wildcats Need to Win the Pac-10
By Dave Consolazio, November 19, 2009 5:19 am

Worried about tiebreakers? Wondering what you should be rooting for in the next few weeks? I've done my best to spell out every possible outcome; including plenty of extremely complicated ones involving a highly improbable Washington State upset over Oregon State.

Short Answer:

Oregon and Arizona both control their own destiny, and if they win out, they are in.

Oregon State only needs a single Arizona loss to get in if they beat Oregon.

Stanford needs a perfect storm, but it isn't impossible. They need a win over Cal, Arizona to beat Oregon, Oregon to beat Oregon State, and Arizona to lose a game (to ASU or USC).

Long Answer:

For OREGON to win the Pac-10 Title:

With win over Arizona, win over Oregon State"¦

- (Pac-10 clinched)

With win over Arizona, loss to Oregon State"¦

- (Oregon State loss to Washington State) AND (Stanford loss to Cal)

With loss to Arizona, win over Oregon State"¦

- (Arizona loss to ASU OR USC) AND (Stanford loss to Cal)

With loss to Arizona, loss to Oregon State"¦

- (Eliminated)

For STANFORD to win the Pac-10 Title:

With win over Cal"¦

- (Oregon loss to Arizona) AND (Arizona loss to ASU OR USC) AND (Oregon State loss to Washington State OR Oregon)

*In this scenario, Stanford wins outright or ends up in a tie (7-2) with Oregon, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

OR

- (Arizona loss to Oregon) AND (Oregon State loss to Washington State) AND (Oregon loss to Oregon State)

*In this scenario, Stanford ends up in a tie (7-2) with Oregon, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

With loss to Cal"¦

- (Eliminated)

For OREGON STATE to win the Pac-10 Title:

With win over Washington State, win over Oregon"¦

- (Arizona loss to Oregon OR ASU OR USC)

*In this scenario, Oregon State wins outright or ends up in a tie (7-2) with Oregon and/or Stanford, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over both.

With loss to Washington State, win over Oregon"¦

- (Oregon loss to Arizona) AND (Stanford loss to Cal) AND (Arizona loss to ASU AND USC)

*In this scenario, Oregon State ends up in a tie (6-3) with Oregon, Stanford, and potentially Cal and USC. If it is a four-way tie with Oregon, Stanford, and Cal, Oregon State holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over all three. If it is a five-way tie, Oregon State holds the best record among the group of five. If it is a four-way tie among Oregon, Stanford, and USC, USC and Oregon are eliminated for having two losses in the group of four, and Oregon State holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Stanford.

With win over Washington State, loss to Oregon"¦

- (Eliminated)

With loss to Washington State, loss to Oregon"¦

- (Eliminated)

For ARIZONA to win the Pac-10 Title:

With win over Oregon, win over Arizona State, win over USC"¦

- (Pac-10 clinched)

With loss to Arizona State, win over Oregon, win over USC"¦

- (Oregon loss to Oregon State) AND (Oregon State loss to Washington State) AND (Stanford loss to Cal)

*In this scenario, Arizona ends in a tie (6-3) with Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State, and potentially Cal. If it is a four-way tie with Oregon, Stanford, and Oregon State, Arizona holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over all three. If it is a five-way tie, Arizona and Oregon State have the best records among the group at 3-1, and Arizona holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Oregon State.

With loss to USC, win over Arizona State, win over Oregon"¦

- (Oregon loss to Oregon State) AND (Oregon State loss to Washington State) AND (Stanford loss to Cal)

*Same as above.

With loss to Oregon, win over Arizona State, win over USC"¦

- (Eliminated)

With two or three losses"¦

- (Eliminated)

That about sums it up. Easy enough, right?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My take: I think it's pretty safe to say that scenario #2 isn't going to happen for Stanford (even Washington State "AT HOME" beating Oregon State would be a mind boggling shock. I might start believing bigunreal that the FIX is now in- this time in the FBS- although it would be a counterproductive one this time for the cultural Marxists lol.) barring a crazy lightning strike from the supreme deity whose angry over the blacklisting of white RBs. Bottom line is we need scenario one to happen!

 

[FootballDad]

The first Stanford scenario isn't far fetched at all. The lynchpin game is Arizona-Oregon, where we pull for Arizona to win. If that happens, then the others should fall into place. Arizona would then have to beat both ASU and USC (probably won't happen) and Oregon would have to beat OSU (likely). Perfect storm complete, oh, assuming that Stanford can run over Cal in the Big Game, of course.

 

[ToughJ.Riggins]

The thing that makes this even less far fetched (knock on wood) is that it's Oregon "AT" Arizona, Arizona "AT" USC and lastly OSU "AT" Oregon. The home crowd could come in handy in our favour!

 

[Colonel_Reb]

Less than a minute into the game, Ryan Whalen was called the best possession receiver in the PAC-10 by Brent Muskrat. What unreal contortions these caste clowns must make to spew anti-white propaganda. Toby Gerhart ties the Stanford record for career rushing TDs with his first of the night!

 

[white is right]

Notre Dame scored a td partially because of a cheap shot by a Stanford Black player. I thought for a second I was watching USC.......

Standford needs a td or Gerhart could be less of a factor if they have to pass to catch up.

 

[Colonel_Reb]

I agree. Stanford has been playing very uncharacteristically, especially the defense. Hopefully Toby will get another chance to pound the rock all the way down the field in their first 3rd quarter drive. He has 14 carries for 73 yards and a TD so far.
Edited by: Colonel_Reb

 

[forty-four]

I'm stuck out here in VA with the Georgia - Georgia Tech game on ABC! Finaly, a game I wanted to watch & instead we get a state rivalry game from GA!

 

[Colonel_Reb]

Its on ESPN2 in the Southeast, forty-four.

 

[dwid]

They seem to be using the backup a little too much. Gerhart is over 100 yards with 2 tds so far a good night, but he needs the ball more. THe backup was stopped two times in a row, usually he only comes in for one play while Gerhart takes a breather, rarely is he in for multiple snaps.

Toby got to show off his receiving skills by taking a short pass for 33 yards! Its one thing many people have questioned whether he could do. 2 weeks in a row a big play receiving, i think that answers it.Edited by: dwid

 

[Kaptain]

How does a coach make the same bonehead non-use of Gerhart on the same area of the field - inside the 20? You drive all the way down using Gerhart, faking to Gerhart, and some passing and then you put your Heisman candidate on the sidelines on 2nd and 4or5 and then again on 3rd down. You can not sustain a drive by forfeiting the next two downs everytime Gerhart has a great run.

That moronic black CB, Simpson, is blowing the game with his play and his moronic penalties.

 

[Kaptain]

Has every penalty gone against Stanford?

 

[Westside]

At work what is the score and quater?

 

[Colonel_Reb]

The score is tied at 38 with 8:59 to go in the game. Toby has 22 carries for 151 yards and 2 TDs plus a 33 yard catch and he just threw an 18 yard TD pass!

 

[Kaptain]

38 to 38 4th quarter about 8 minutes remaining.

 

[Westside]

Thanks Reb , he needs another 80 or 100 yds 2 TDs Stanford wins and McCoy and Tebow bomb next wk!

 

[dwid]

Toby throws for a td! he can run, catch and pass!

 

[Colonel_Reb]

Stanford is ahead 45-38 with 49 seconds to go. Toby has 29 for 205 and 3 TDs on the ground. The Stanford secondary is giving the game away though.

Wow, what a crazy game! Stanford played poorly on defense but still pulled it out. Congrats on another great game by Toby!
Edited by: Colonel_Reb

 

[celticdb15]

It was awesome watching Gerhart flex his authority tonight on national tv. I was out and everyone td toby scored i cheered loudly im sure the alcohl helpe d a bit!

 

[Jack Lambert]

Toby was awesome tonight. Even Kirk and Brent were saying he needs to be in New York.

Did anyone else see or hear what Coach Harbaugh was saying on the sidelines at times?