Robert Woods just signed a 2 year, $15.3 million contract with Houston, and he's a decent receiver to compare to Thielen and his situation. Woods started for several years for Buffalo then went to the Rams, where he had some notable success, mostly while on the field at the same time as Cooper Kupp. Like Thielen he had two thousand yard receiving seasons, in '18 and '19, before starting to decline. He blew out his knee in '21 before signing with the Titans for '22, finishing with a forgettable line of 53/527/2. He will turn 31 in April.
Thielen had his thousand yard seasons in '17 and '18 before his numbers began to decline. He was injured a good portion of '19 while in '20 he ended up with 925 yards to go with 14 TDs. I attribute his lesser numbers the past two years mainly to the Vikings drafting Justin Jefferson, who unlike many highly touted receivers coming out of college lived up to the hype and then some. Thielen will be 33 in August.
Woods has 623 career catches to Thielen's 534, but here's why -- Woods started immediately as a rookie for the Bills at the age of 21. Thielen somewhat famously went undrafted, signed as a free agent with his home state team and had to go the WSTD route for several years. By the time he finally received regular playing time in 2016 he was already 26 -- the dreaded racial apprenticeship.
Thielen has had a better overall career and is a much more dangerous weapon in the red zone than Woods ever was. But he's two years older, so all in all a pretty good comparison. All the Texans have currently is Brandin Cooks, who wants out and is very likely to be traded; and Nico Collins, a third round draft pick in '21 who has been pedestrian in his first two years despite a lot of hype about how the Texans got a "steal" when he lasted till the third round, so depending on the draft and other factors, Woods looks to be their starter in '23 in the slot or possibly even outside. Let's see what kind of deal if any Thielen ends up with.