83% Failure Rate

[Don Wassall]

I just came upona list of the 17 WRs who have been drafted among the top ten picks of the first round since 2000. Of the 17, all black of course, 3 are stars -- Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson (though Calvin Johnson has been brittle and has yet to live up to his "Megatron" nickname). Of the other 14, 11 are busts to one degree or another -- Peter Warrick, Travis Taylor, David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Charles Rodgers, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Ted Ginn, and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Of the other 3, Plaxico Burress eventually blossomed, only to end up in prison; the jury is still out on Michael Crabtree; and Braylon Edwards has been an underachiever withcomically badhandsbut isn't a complete bust.

Since any player selected in the first ten picks of the draft is supposed to be a future superstar, especially at a position like wide receiver, 3 out of 17 actually becoming stars works out to 17%.

It would be good if someone could take the time and evaluate all the black picks from the first round since 2000. The 83% failure rate at WR probably holds true for black players as a whole as there has been one bust after another on the defensive line, at QB, CB, and lately at LB as well. Many of the highly drafted RBs have been disappointments also, and there is no shortage of sumos on the o-line who suck. Considering that scouting is a year-round, ever-growing cottage industry, the failure of the NFL to identify competent talent is startling, though rarely mentioned because of the pigmentation of the vast majority of the yearly flops.

If even two-thirds ofthe yearly high draft choicesworked out there would be almost no White starters in the league, but it illustrates the extreme affirmative action that all teams in the NFL adhere to, even as ESPN and the NFL Network continue toamuse the DWFs bycontinually recyclingtheir shows on "draft busts" focusing mostly on White players from the previous century.

 

[Woody]

Failure Rate for RBs: 75%
Suprisingly, only 8 RBs have been chosen in the top 10 in the last 10 drafts. (2001-2010)

Tomlinson was chosen in 2001, and became a legit star. Adrian Peterson was drafted in 2007 and is also a star.

In '02, '03, and '04 no RBs where chosen in the top 10. Ronnie Brown was drafted in '05 and while not acomplete failure, he is not a star and has probably lost the window to become one. Cedric Benson and Carnell Williams are clearly busts. Niether average over 4.0 ypc or over 6 TDs a year.Both have long rap sheets as well. Raggie Bushcame out in '06 and is clearly a bust as he cannot stay healthy, carry a workload, or be a vital part of the team.

Darren McFadden has struggled, but was productive this season and can still develope into a star.

I'm going to label C.J Spiller a bust even though he was only drafted last year. Touted as a home run threat, he averaged 3.8 ypc with no TDs.

Keep in mind, as Don said, top 10 picks should be stars. L.T. and A.P. make for a 25% success rate.

 

[whiteathlete33]

If we were to look back to 2000 and the late 90's some huge busts come to mind. Curtis Enis, Ron Dayne, Robert Edwards, and John Avery were all taken in the first round as well. Not only were these guys busts, they were colossal busts. Amazing how most of them are never on any of the NFL bust lists.

 

[Tired old White]

I know that there are not many white players drafted but I bet success rate is much higher if for no other reason than they have to be over the top talented just to get anyone to take a look at them

 

[Thrashen]

<div>If even two-thirds of the yearly high draft choices worked out there would be almost no White starters in the league, but it illustrates the extreme affirmative action that all teams in the NFL adhere to, even as ESPN and the NFL Network continue to amuse the DWFs by continually recycling their shows on "draft busts" focusing mostly on White players from the previous century.</div>

This is the most pertinent statement concerning the massive amount of black draft busts. If the percentage of black starters league-wide (or even the percentage of 53-man roster spots) would more closely mirror the percentage of blacks drafted (or even drafted in the first two rounds), the NFL would have resembled the "million man march"Â￾ decades ago. The amount of artificial "opportunities"Â￾ they receive is inconceivable"¦even for a perpetually propped-up, cared after, failure of a race.

Couple this with the fact that the majority of white NFL starters were walk-ons in college, low draft picks, or undrafted free agents, and a reflection of the "New American Dream"Â￾ begins to emerge.

 

[jaxvid]

If we were to look back to 2000 and the late 90's some huge busts come to mind.  Curtis Enis, Ron Dayne,  Robert Edwards, and John Avery were all taken in the first round as well.  Not only were these guys busts, they were colossal busts.  Amazing how most of them are never on any of the NFL bust lists.

I never liked him but I don't know that Ron Dayne was a "huge bust". He had a couple of decent years but never put up elite numbers. His fat ass stuck around the league much longer then he should have but he played 7 years gained around 3700 yards at 3.8 a pop. Not real good but not a HUGE bust IMHO.

 

[whiteathlete33]

If we were to look back to 2000 and the late 90's some huge busts come to mind. Curtis Enis, Ron Dayne, Robert Edwards, and John Avery were all taken in the first round as well. Not only were these guys busts, they were colossal busts. Amazing how most of them are never on any of the NFL bust lists.

I never liked him but I don't know that Ron Dayne was a "huge bust". He had a couple of decent years but never put up elite numbers. His fat ass stuck around the league much longer then he should have but he played 7 years gained around 3700 yards at 3.8 a pop. Not real good but not a HUGE bust IMHO.

Dayne's best season was 770 yards. That was much better than the other three busts I listed. He was the 11th pick of the draft and even though he only ran about a 4.6, he went very early in the first round. At 5'10 and 250lbs why wasn't he a fullback? Ohh yea, we know why.

 

[Woody]

There have been 10 (black) DE/OLBs chosen in the top ten from 2001-2010.
6 of them have been complete and utter busts. (Jamaal anderson, Jamal reynolds, and Tyson Jackson are a few.)

4 have had good/solid careers. Andre carter is not a star, Mario Williams is considered by some to still be a bust, but both have been solid. Julius Peppers has been a playmaker, and Terrell Suggs has been good at timesas well.

Only 2 white DE have been chosen in the top ten over the last 10 years, Justin Smith and Chris Long. Both have had solid careers.

 

[Don Wassall]

If we were to look back to 2000 and the late 90's some huge busts come to mind. Curtis Enis, Ron Dayne, Robert Edwards, and John Avery were all taken in the first round as well. Not only were these guys busts, they were colossal busts. Amazing how most of them are never on any of the NFL bust lists.

I never liked him but I don't know that Ron Dayne was a "huge bust". He had a couple of decent years but never put up elite numbers. His fat ass stuck around the league much longer then he should have but he played 7 years gained around 3700 yards at 3.8 a pop. Not real good but not a HUGE bust IMHO.

Dayne was a bust, and I would say a huge bust. He entered the NFL as the 11th pick of the first round and was coming off a Heisman Trophy winning season. Under those circumstances his output was indeed bust-like, and he was worse than his statistics showed as even at 260 pounds he had no power. He could not be used successfully as a power runner, though the Giants used him that way over and over again. He couldn't gain a yard on 3rd and 1 or at the 1 yard line to save his life.

The only time he looked good was his last two seasons in the NFL, after he had been awful for five seasons. That was due to the NFL and its stalwart belief that black busts drafted in the first two rounds will eventually develop if given the better part of a decade's worthof opportunities. In Dayne's case that policy was vindicated, to a degree, as he improved but wasnever anything approaching a dominant runner in his final two seasons with Houston. Dayne was purely a product of Wisconsin'susually great, White-dominated o-lines, which opened up huge holes forhim to run through.Edited by: Don Wassall

 

[sport historian]

A few months ago, there was a piece at Cold Hard Football Facts wondering why there were so many draft busts. After all, prospects were far more heavily scouted than in the past, including the combine. CHFF couldn't figure it out.

 

[Guest]

Because the D1 scouts are bust enablers. I've told this story before, great black hype comes out to one of our small towns as RB, fast yes but an arm hair can take him down, the white FB was a better player, but got no offers. Anyway Kansas gives this black kid a shot and even they find him a whiffer and put him at CB where anything resembling a pump fake puts six up on the board over this "amazing athlete."

 

[warhawk46]

Ron Dayne had a couple good seasons in Houston and was good in Denver in the limited carries he got. He was not, even at Wisconsin, a power back even though he looked the part. His forte was his excellent vision.<div>
</div><div>He, like many backs, needed to get into a rhythm in order to be effective. This comes from getting the necessary carries. I feel he could have had a better career if he had gotten more carries. But Tiki Barber was coming on in NY.</div><div>
</div><div>Although Gerhart is the far better athlete, I fear his career with go the same route. He needs carries in order to be most effective. For a running back to come in and get a few carries every couple series, he won't be that effective. Opportunity is crucially important.</div><div>
</div><div>At the end of the season you can look at the stats and say, oh he got 200 carries but only 700 yards, low average= must not be very good. But if those carries are sporadic and don't allow the back to get into his rhythm the results won't be that great.</div><div>
</div><div>I've no doubt Dayne could have put up the stats Cedric Benson has in Cincinnati. Difference is that Benson is getting enough carries consistently to find his rhythm as a runner. Hopefully, somebody gives Toby Gerhart the opportunity to showcase his skills, otherwise in eight years we will be saying he was a Heisman runner-up who was an NFL bust.</div>

 

[Don Wassall]

We'll have to see first of all if Gerhart ever gets the chance to get a lot of carries. Dayne had 228 carries his rookie season (and just 3 receptions as another of his many drawbacks was he was useless in the passing game, unlike Gerhart who could have chosen to pursue a professional baseball career).

And Gerhart won't get eight years to "develop," as is not uncommon for black players, before he's proclaimed a "bust,"nowhere close. He's already been pigeonholed as a backup, after the previous attempts to pigeonhole him as a fullback despite winning the Doak Walker award. There's a huge, huge difference between the types of opportunities Ron Dayne received to prove himself and what Toby Gerhart will get.

 

[sport historian]

I'm going to check the WRs drafted in the first round from 1960-69 and see how many were busts.

 

[sport historian]

I made a very unscientific survey of the 30 WRs drafted in the first and second rounds in the NFL (and AFL) draft from 1961-70. There were more taken high in the late 60s (none in 1960 so I started with 1961). Of the 30, 4 were hall of famers--Lance Alworth, Paul Warfield, Charley Taylor, and Fred Biletnikoff. There were 11 busts to varying degrees, 7 of them white--Bobby Crespino, Tom Hutchinson, Larry Elkins, Dave Dunaway, Freddie Hyatt, Jim Seymour, and Walker Gillette. For nearly 40 years, any time a scout disparages a white WR, he calls him "another Walker Gillette." The 4 black busts really went through the basement--Dave McDaniels, Volly Murphy, Margene Adkins, and Donnie Williams.

Players such as Bernie Casey, Dave Parks, Jack Snow, Roy Jefferson and others had good to very good careers. Others started out well, but fell back. Some were journeymen.

Of the 16 white WRs drafted first or second from 1961-70, 7 or 43.7% were busts. This included some big-name college players like Lawrence Elkins of Baylor and Gillette. I didn't list Alabama's Dennis Homan as a bust because he played behind Bob Hayes in Dallas and Otis Taylor in Kansas City.

After this decade, white WRs weren't drafted high very often. It is probable that around 40 years ago, pro football decided white WRs weren't as good.

Of the 14 black WRs, 4 were busts--28.5%. Edited by: sport historian

 

[Colonel_Reb]

Interesting info, all. I see one familiar name in that list of busts, sport historian, Bobby Crespino. I was thinking he was converted to TE during his career. One thing you have to consider, even back in the 60s, is that some (not all) of the black WRs may have been allowed to play earlier/more and given longer to develop just as the league does now. I just can't see White receivers being that much worse than their black counterparts. I mean, they aren't now. Why would they have been then?

 

[sport historian]

Interesting info, all. I see one familiar name in that list of busts, sport historian, Bobby Crespino. I was thinking he was converted to TE during his career. One thing you have to consider, even back in the 60s, is that some (not all) of the black WRs may have been allowed to play earlier/more and given longer to develop just as the league does now. I just can't see White receivers being that much worse than their black counterparts. I mean, they aren't now. Why would they have been then? 

In the three years Crespino was in Cleveland after being a first round draft choice, he caught a total of 6 passes. He was a WR or split end as they were called then. He played some TE for the Giants after being traded in 1964 but didn't do that much.

In the 1960s, if you didn't produce, you were gone. Being black or white didn't make that much difference in those days.

Gary Collins, who was drafted by Cleveland in the first round the year after Crespino, had an outstanding career. He was MVP in the 1964 NFL Championship game.

There were many white WRs of the 1960's (Tommy McDonald, Sonny Randle, Boyd Dowler, Max McGee, etc) who did very well but were not first or second round draft choices.Edited by: sport historian

 

[Colonel_Reb]

Yeah, I saw Crespino's stats and that is why I asked about him. Don't you think it is a little strange that a high draft pick would get so few opportunities? Surely he didn't drop some ridiculous number of passes that were thrown to him that he could only muster 2 catches in each of his first three years. That just seems fishy to me. I didn't look up stats for the other players, but maybe this was the case for more than one. To me, it is basically the same argument used against Matt Jones that labeled him as being a bad receiver when he was rarely on the field to prove otherwise.

 

[johnnyboy]

A few months ago, there was a piece at Cold Hard Football Facts wondering why there were so many draft busts. After all, prospects were far more heavily scouted than in the past, including the combine. CHFF couldn't figure it out.

that's an easy one. the reason for the increase in "busts" is the increase in guaranteed signing bonuses for rookies. in the old days guys had to bust there butts for their entire careers to make good money. nowadays, a guy like Charles Rodgers becomes a multimillionaire before he even plays his first down of NFL football. he's then free to embarass his coaches and quit on his teammates for the remainder of his contract. you can forget about getting a newly minted ghetto millionaire to practice hard, memorize his playbook or play hurt. once they have the money, they lose all motivation.Edited by: johnnyboy

 

[Westside]

johnnyboy, Andre Smiff is right behind that guy Charles Rodgers or surpasses him in all around suckness and failure to perform.

 

[sport historian]

Yeah, I saw Crespino's stats and that is why I asked about him. Don't you think it is a little strange that a high draft pick would get so few opportunities? Surely he didn't drop some ridiculous number of passes that were thrown to him that he could only muster 2 catches in each of his first three years. That just seems fishy to me. I didn't look up stats for the other players, but maybe this was the case for more than one. To me, it is basically the same argument used against Matt Jones that labeled him as being a bad receiver when he was rarely on the field to prove otherwise. 

Did you see the 1961-63 Cleveland Browns play on TV? I did. How do you know Crespino had "so few opportunities?" I have the Browns 1961 highlight film on DVD. Yes, Crespino was on the field several times in this film.

In 1961, Ray Renfro, a 30-year old veteran was still going strong for the Browns as a deep WR. Rich Kreitling and Gern Nagler were average at the other spot. Crespino couldn't win the job opposite Renfro when the Browns wanted him to and as a first round choice, he was expected to.

In 1962, Gary Collins was the Browns' first draft choice. Renfro began to slow down and Kreitling had a good year. Crespino was the number four WR. In 1963, Crespino was behind Collins, Kreitling, Renfro, and rookie Tom Hutchinson (who had played for Blanton Collier at Kentucky).

In 1964, Crespino was traded to the Giants for veteran DT Dick Modzelewski, who helped the Browns win the NFL title that year.

 

[white is right]

Yeah, I saw Crespino's stats and that is why I asked about him. Don't you think it is a little strange that a high draft pick would get so few opportunities? Surely he didn't drop some ridiculous number of passes that were thrown to him that he could only muster 2 catches in each of his first three years. That just seems fishy to me. I didn't look up stats for the other players, but maybe this was the case for more than one. To me, it is basically the same argument used against Matt Jones that labeled him as being a bad receiver when he was rarely on the field to prove otherwise. 

Back in those days clubs had smaller rosters and didn't invest as much in the players. So if you didn't cut it quickly you were let go faster than these days. Rosters weren't much larger than CFL rosters are today.

 

[warhawk46]

That's my point. Dayne did pretty well his first year in NY, then after that Barber got most of the carries. He also did fairly well in Houston when given the majority of the carries. Other years during his career, he didn't get much of an opportunity to prove effective; whether he could have or not is debatable. I think he was every bit as good ad Cedric Benson or Beanie Wells is, and given the type of carries they have gotten could have been just as effective. Not great for the 11th pick in the draft but not terrible either. Far from a huge bust, IMO. Again, success in the NFL is about opportunity. Why are white athletes not as successful? They lack the opportunities blacks get.<div>Toby proved he can be pretty effective the game and a half Peterson was out this year. I really hope Harbaugh in SF makes a play for him. Gore, while a good back, is getting up there and is somewhat injury-prone. I've no doubt in my mind Toby can become an 1,100 yard back year in and year out if he is given the opportunity.</div>

 

[Colonel_Reb]

sport historian, there's no need to get defensive. You know I wasn't around back then. I'm not trying to tell you how it was. I'm just comparing two situations to see if there are any similarities, and from my perspective there were. I mention all this to try to find out exactly what happened back then because I wasn't alive to have seen it myself. I appreciate all the info you just posted about the Browns and their receiving corps. You wrote that Crespino was on the field several times in the 1961 highlight film. That makes me even more interested in how many passes were actually thrown to him during those first three seasons. If he was on the field a fair amount of the time in 1961 and only caught two passes, it would seem as though he was being ignored, at least on some level. Again, I don't have all the game films in front of me to help me answer that question.

I can't help but wonder exactly how we know that players like these were treated fairly and were pushed by the coaches, etc. to be the starter over a black player, even back then. I assume the answer (or one of the answers) is that he/they couldn't beat people out in practice (in the true meritocracy that was the pre-caste NFL/AFL) and therefore didn't see the field. Isn't that the same assumption that is used today? I mean the media and even coaches will tell us that certain White players aren't good enough to see the field when we know that they are in many (not all) cases. How can we be sure the same thing didn't happen then, at least in a few cases?

 

[sport historian]

sport historian, there's no need to get defensive. You know I wasn't around back then. I'm not trying to tell you how it was. I'm just comparing two situations to see if there are any similarities, and from my perspective there were. I mention all this to try to find out exactly what happened back then because I wasn't alive to have seen it myself. I appreciate all the info you just posted about the Browns and their receiving corps. You wrote that Crespino was on the field several times in the 1961 highlight film. That makes me even more interested in how many passes were actually thrown to him during those first three seasons. If he was on the field a fair amount of the time in 1961 and only caught two passes, it would seem as though he was being ignored, at least on some level. Again, I don't have all the game films in front of me to help me answer that question. I can't help but wonder exactly how we know that players like these were treated fairly and were pushed by the coaches, etc. to be the starter over a black player, even back then. I assume the answer (or one of the answers) is that he/they couldn't beat people out in practice (in the true meritocracy that was the pre-caste NFL/AFL) and therefore didn't see the field. Isn't that the same assumption that is used today? I mean the media and even coaches will tell us that certain White players aren't good enough to see the field when we know that they are in many (not all) cases. How can we be sure the same thing didn't happen then, at least in a few cases? 

I apologize. I didn't mean to be overly defensive. The Browns had another rookie WR in 1961 in addition to Bobby Crespino named Charley Ferguson. He was black. The Browns unloaded Ferguson in 1962 and kept Crespino for two more seasons. Things were different 50 years ago.