I worked this up last year near the end of the season. Obviously it's no longer quite as relevant as it would have been before the draft. But, if I don't post this now, I'll never get around to it. We all know that the QB Efficiency rating is garbage. I pointed to multiple articles (in my Voodoo Mathematics thread) which showed that Geno Smith's production was completely fraudulent, yet he had a pretty good QB rating (#6 in FBS). I wanted to come up with my own macro rating which did a better job of revealing the true effectiveness of a quarterback. I spent a long time thinking out the statistical compilation which would give a true indicator of a quarterback's abilities WITHOUT artificially enhancing his rating with phoney yards piled up on "extended handoffs" (which were 30% of Smith's plays). Unfortunately, at the end of it all, I discovered that there's just not enough data available to take all factors into account when determining a quarterback's performance. Records are kept for things like drops, incompletions, reception location, yards-to-go, et cetera. But you have to pay big bucks to an entity like Elias in order to obtain those numbers. The data that are freely available to the average fan will never yield a complete picture of play on the field. As long as you accept that all macro ratings are doomed to be incomplete, then you can at least appreciate any trends across multiple ratings that may appear. With that disclaimer out of the way, I present to you my QBE or Quarterback Effectiveness rating. My goal was to develop a metric which could show not only how well a particular quarterback ran his own system, but also how much his decision-making on the field affected his team's offense. To this end, I utilized the following data: Completion Percentage, Yards-per-Attempt, Total number of rushes (which can also be defined as the total number of times a QB is tackled holding the ball), Total loss yards, Total number of plays (rushes plus pass attempts). Since I'm not trying to show how well one team plays against the opponents on their schedule, touchdowns, interceptions, and total yards are irrelevant. Those would be indicative of the performance of the entire team, including the defense, as well as the coaching staff and the schedule maker. And the Quarterback shouldn't get credit for those things. Before the conference championship games took place last season, I took the top thirty quarterbacks in terms of their passer efficiency rating. I then input the data above using my formula for QBE (which I will try to explain shortly). Here were the results: The last column is the Quarterback Effectivenss rating. To be honest, the whole concept is a little inverted. I was trying to focus on quarterbacks who hurt their teams with poor decision making, but, since I didn't want a list of "worst to first", I just flipped it upside down and the QBs are now ranked according to how little their actions end up harming their teams. According to my formula, of the top thirty quarterbacks in FBS last year (as of the time I polled the data), Jordan Lynch runs his team's offense more effectively than any other quarterback in the country. Quarterbacks have to decide after the snap whether or not to throw, keep, or hand off. And Lynch's decision-making yielded the best results on average for his team. The other columns, in order, are: Completion Percentage: self explanatory Passing yards per attempt: ditto Rushes: As stated above, this is the number of times a QB is tackled with the ball, whether on a run or a sack Loss: Total yardage lost on rushing attempts, which includes sack yardage Plays: Total number of rushes plus total pass attempts CarryPct: Number of times the QB was tackled with the ball out of the total plays he was involved in, expressed as a percentage) LAF = Loss Avoidance Factor: This is the simplest formula, yet it's nearly impossible to conceptualize and even more difficult to explain. I have actually held off making this post for two weeks while I try to figure out how to describe the meaning of this statistic. I can't really do it, other than in my own head, so it will just have to remain something of a "black box" number like ESPN uses for their TOTAL QBR nonsense. The number is obtained by dividing the total number of rushes by the number of Loss Yards and then determining the distance that value is from 1.00. Example: If a QB was tackled with the ball 200 times (whether on a sack or a run) and had compiled just 100 total loss yards on the season, then his LAF would be (2.00-1.00)= 1.0. He averages two carries before he compiles a full yard of loss, so his net LAF is positive. On average, he doesn't hurt the team when he's tackled with the ball. If, however, he was tackled the same 200 times, but had 300 loss yards on the season, his LAF would be (1.00-0.66)= -0.33 (below 1 yields a negative value, obviously). He only averages 0.66 carries before he compiles a full yards of loss, meaning he's losing yardage every time he's tackled with the ball instead of throwing it (on average), so his LAF is negative. This number is used only as a modifier, so its obtuse nature shouldn't be too concerning. BHF = Ball Handling Factor: Carrypct*LAF*50. If a QB has a high carry percentage, then his LAF (and thus his ability to avoid losing yards) affects the team more. This statistic shows how much or little a QB's loss avoidance factor is harming his team's offense. The "50" multiplier is included because the other components of the final statistics are expressed as percentages of 100 and I considered ball handling to be roughly half as important in the final calculation. FDE = First Down Efficiency: This number shows the percentage of first down yardage (10 yards) that the QB achieves per pass attempt. This is another statistic which reveals how much a QB's decision making affects his team. A QB who can't run through his reads quickly will usually take the quick dump on a short yardage play. This is the number which exposes most of the spread offense quarterbacks like Geno Smith. Although, even then, it still doesn't show just how bad Smith is because his tosses behind the line (33% of his passes) usually went for long gains. That just shows how difficult it is to defend Holgorsen's playbook. CPF = Completion percentage plus First Down Efficiency percentage. QBE = Quarterback Effectiveness Rating: This is the CPF number adjusted by the ball handling factor. Again, this is not meant to be a measure of how "good" a quarterback is. Rather, it's meant to show whether or not (and to what extent) a given quarterback's decisions and execution hurt his team. Is it highly flawed? Yes. But so is the current QB Efficiency rating. And ESPN's QBR system is a complete joke. I have some ideas for improvements to make for next season. If I'm feeling particularly masochistic, I might give it an overhaul and track the top quarterbacks during the year. I welcome any thoughts and vitriolic criticisms.