Awake in America
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- Jun 30, 2012
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I spent all day Saturday evaluating kids for a flag football draft, and a couple of things stood out to me that relate to the subject matter of this board. These were kids in grades K-5, in an affluent suburb that is mostly white. It is competitive, but not insanely so. We play to win, but keep it fun. Two things really got my attention today:
1) The 40 yard dash (or shorter for younger kids) is a very poor way to evaluate talent. The difference between a 4.6 and a 4.7 is very slight when you see them run side by side. The NFL combine fanboys would have us believe that there is some huge difference. By the time you get on pads, run on grass, and/or add in competition, what you see in the 40 becomes almost meaningless. I will get the fastest player in the league tomorrow, but he didn't run the fastest time. Put him head to head against anyone else out there, and he will win, every single time. My way of putting it is "knowing what to do is worth at least .2". We don't often see prospects run against each other in the 40, yet I have never seen a game where there was only one player on the field. The 40 has some value, but it is the most overrated metric out there.
2) These flag football leagues have both boys and girls playing. The player that everyone was talking about was a black girl in the 3rd grade. She should be a 4th grader, but has been held back. She is just shy of her 10th birthday, and is physically as mature as most white girls 4 years older than her. Meaning that she is biologically a woman in the 3rd grade. No exaggeration. Of course she ran one of the faster times, is very tall, and did at least okay on most everything else. I had to talk my fellow coach out of taking her. She cannot follow instructions AT ALL, and will be a one-dimensional player. All he initially saw was "upside", and he was not alone. When I started asking him exactly what we would do with her on offense or defense, he started backtracking. It was amazing. Athletically, she has almost NO upside left. She's practically grown! This all got me thinking ....
This difference in the physical maturation rates of the races is well documented, and is a huge part of the caste system's cover. Kids are sorted for certain sports and positions from a very early age, and those that are more mature at an earlier age have an enormous advantage. If you have a group that matures at an earlier age (and also happens to fall a grade behind in school more often), that group is going to be overrepresented in high school level sports. It's something that literally everyone sees, but most don't really take note of the implications. That sets the table for college, and the rest is so obvious that there's a website devoted to it! It's part of the answer to the question of how a Wes Welker or Jordy Nelson can possibly sneak up on the NFL, with all of their resources and scouting. It should almost never happen. How many other "late bloomers" are out there? My guess is a lot.
Another facet of this that hit me is the timing of when the NFL got so black. In the 40s and 50s, a lot of the white players were coming into the NCAA and/or NFL ranks after spending a few years in the military. I have more than a passing suspicion that those extra couple of years evened things out from a developmental standpoint, much like the missionary work does for BYU's players. As the 60s and 70s came about, those players were no longer getting those extra couple of years in the army, and coaches were no longer parking players at military schools for 13th grade to the extent they once did. The freshman eligibility rule helped those who were already further along, as did the scholarship reductions that came shortly thereafter. Just food for thought.
1) The 40 yard dash (or shorter for younger kids) is a very poor way to evaluate talent. The difference between a 4.6 and a 4.7 is very slight when you see them run side by side. The NFL combine fanboys would have us believe that there is some huge difference. By the time you get on pads, run on grass, and/or add in competition, what you see in the 40 becomes almost meaningless. I will get the fastest player in the league tomorrow, but he didn't run the fastest time. Put him head to head against anyone else out there, and he will win, every single time. My way of putting it is "knowing what to do is worth at least .2". We don't often see prospects run against each other in the 40, yet I have never seen a game where there was only one player on the field. The 40 has some value, but it is the most overrated metric out there.
2) These flag football leagues have both boys and girls playing. The player that everyone was talking about was a black girl in the 3rd grade. She should be a 4th grader, but has been held back. She is just shy of her 10th birthday, and is physically as mature as most white girls 4 years older than her. Meaning that she is biologically a woman in the 3rd grade. No exaggeration. Of course she ran one of the faster times, is very tall, and did at least okay on most everything else. I had to talk my fellow coach out of taking her. She cannot follow instructions AT ALL, and will be a one-dimensional player. All he initially saw was "upside", and he was not alone. When I started asking him exactly what we would do with her on offense or defense, he started backtracking. It was amazing. Athletically, she has almost NO upside left. She's practically grown! This all got me thinking ....
This difference in the physical maturation rates of the races is well documented, and is a huge part of the caste system's cover. Kids are sorted for certain sports and positions from a very early age, and those that are more mature at an earlier age have an enormous advantage. If you have a group that matures at an earlier age (and also happens to fall a grade behind in school more often), that group is going to be overrepresented in high school level sports. It's something that literally everyone sees, but most don't really take note of the implications. That sets the table for college, and the rest is so obvious that there's a website devoted to it! It's part of the answer to the question of how a Wes Welker or Jordy Nelson can possibly sneak up on the NFL, with all of their resources and scouting. It should almost never happen. How many other "late bloomers" are out there? My guess is a lot.
Another facet of this that hit me is the timing of when the NFL got so black. In the 40s and 50s, a lot of the white players were coming into the NCAA and/or NFL ranks after spending a few years in the military. I have more than a passing suspicion that those extra couple of years evened things out from a developmental standpoint, much like the missionary work does for BYU's players. As the 60s and 70s came about, those players were no longer getting those extra couple of years in the army, and coaches were no longer parking players at military schools for 13th grade to the extent they once did. The freshman eligibility rule helped those who were already further along, as did the scholarship reductions that came shortly thereafter. Just food for thought.