UFC 76

[aussieaussie31]

These upsets are starting to become the norm. I like Griffin and Shogun. I thought that Shogun would win the fight hands down. Wow was I wrong. I too would like to know what the deal is with these Pride fighters. Back when they were two distinct organizations I thought Pride had the better Heavyweights, and Light Heavyweights, while the UFC was stronger in the lighter divisions. I think the UFC was much stronger than I personally gave it credit for. I realize that the nature of MMA (and the many ways one can win) allows for upsets. However if someone told me 6 months ago that Crocop would get knocked out, Shogun would get choked out, and Nogeira would nearly be knocked out while struggling to gain a decision when coming to the UFC I would call that person foolish. Someone alluded to drug use by Pride fighters. I find that scenario very possible. There has to be some sort of explanation. I could see if they were performing well but were being outshined by better fighters. (which may play a role) However, these guys from Pride look absolutely outclassed by the competition in the UFC.

 

[white is right]

Forrest is amazing and I just love this most unpredictable of all sports. I would have bet two paychecks on Rua and Chuck winning last night, glad I didn't!

In the future there will be hobos wandering around Vegas saying they bet favorites in 07' and became homeless because of it. This year has been scary for the favorites.....

 

[aussieaussie31]

I also think Liddell losing to Jackson was just par for the course. With Chuck looking like he did against Keith Jardine I would say that any top notch 205er may have beaten him just as Jackson beat him that night. I think Liddell is obviously past his prime and is really starting to show it. I take nothing away from Keith Jardine though. Jardine is a quality fighter. Chuck just looked much slower against rampage and Jardine as opposed to when he fought Cotour, Babalu, Randleman etc.
I see alot of new blood coming into the picture in all weight classes. Jon Fitch looked damn good on the ground. I was impressed with his being able to so thoroughly dominate Diego on the ground. Jon Fitch vs. George Pierre would be a real barn burner. They might very well also be 1, and 2(Pierre would win I think) in the division as well.

 

[Guest]

Either way, their performances (outside of Jackson ironically) have been thoroughly disappointing.

Anderson Silva, Yushin Okami, and Dan Henderson have all looked as good in UFC as they did in PRIDE.

The PRIDE flops have not looked the same in UFC. They are less muscular, less fit, and less aggressive. They are used to 10 minute rounds and now they get tired after one 5 minute round.

Here's more evidence that many PRIDE fighters were probably on drugs in Japan:

In February, Dan Henderson met Wanderlei Silva in a match on US soil under US drug testing rules. Henderson knocked Silva out cold.

If I were Wanderlei Silva, I would be very cautious about returning to UFC. I would be training harder than I ever have, because the drugs I was probably using won't help me anymore.

 

[Guest]

These upsets are starting to become the norm.

In MMA, favorites win about 75% of the time, going by sports book data. Upsets are not the norm.

In boxing, good boxers rack up a high winning percentage mainly by avoiding other good boxers.

 

[guest301]

These upsets are starting to become the norm.

In MMA, favorites win about 75% of the time, going by sports book data. Upsets are not the norm.

In boxing, good boxers rack up a high winning percentage mainly by avoiding other good boxers.

I disagree. In a sport like boxing or even let's say college football, wouldn't the favorites win 85 to 90% of the time. So 75% favorites winning in MMA seems like a high percentage of upsets to me.

 

[Guest]

I disagree. In a sport like boxing or even let's say college football, wouldn't the favorites win 85 to 90% of the time.

How frequently is the favorite "supposed" to win? In NFL football, the favorites often lose. I have not done the math, but I would make a guess that the favorite does not win NFL games at a rate much higher than 75%.

Forget boxing. Mathematically, boxing is highly inefficient. Good boxers spend the majority of their time trying to avoid fighting other good boxers. Boxers have this down to a science. Avoid, avoid, avoid. Never fight other good boxers. You might lose.

There is a reason there are 4 major belts in every class and boxers are terrified by the idea of unifying them.

So 75% favorites winning in MMA seems like a high percentage of upsets to me.

For something to happen the majority of the time it must happen in 51% of instances or more. What actually happens in MMA is that the favorite wins 75% of the time. So upsets are not the norm.

Crunch some numbers on NFL football. I think you will find that MMA is quite comparable.Edited by: nevada

 

[DixieDestroyer]

Fitch is a stud. I definitely think he earned a title shot. I'd like to see him get the winner of Hughes vs. Serra.

 

[guest301]

I disagree. In a sport like boxing or even let's say college football, wouldn't the favorites win 85 to 90% of the time.

How frequently is the favorite "supposed" to win? In NFL football, the favorites often lose. I have not done the math, but I would make a guess that the favorite does not win NFL games at a rate much higher than 75%.

Forget boxing. Mathematically, boxing is highly inefficient. Good boxers spend the majority of their time trying to avoid fighting other good boxers. Boxers have this down to a science. Avoid, avoid, avoid. Never fight other good boxers. You might lose.

There is a reason there are 4 major belts in every class and boxers are terrified by the idea of unifying them.

So 75% favorites winning in MMA seems like a high percentage of upsets to me.

For something to happen the majority of the time it must happen in 51% of instances or more. What actually happens in MMA is that the favorite wins 75% of the time. So upsets are not the norm.

Crunch some numbers on NFL football. I think you will find that MMA is quite comparable.

I didn't include the NFL in my post for a reason. There is a large amount of parity in the NFL and there are some pretty good teams but no more great teams. You are being a little bit too literal in saying that upsets are not the norm in MMA. Nobody is saying here that upsets happen 51 % of the time as you posted. But we are saying that there have been alot of high profile upsets lately, alot more than you see in other sports.

 

[Colonel Callan]

I also think Liddell losing to Jackson was just par for the course. With Chuck looking like he did against Keith Jardine I would say that any top notch 205er may have beaten him just as Jackson beat him that night. I think Liddell is obviously past his prime and is really starting to show it. I take nothing away from Keith Jardine though. Jardine is a quality fighter. Chuck just looked much slower against rampage and Jardine as opposed to when he fought Cotour, Babalu, Randleman etc.
I see alot of new blood coming into the picture in all weight classes. Jon Fitch looked damn good on the ground. I was impressed with his being able to so thoroughly dominate Diego on the ground. Jon Fitch vs. George Pierre would be a real barn burner. They might very well also be 1, and 2(Pierre would win I think) in the division as well.

I agree with most of what you say. I've been saying for a year that Chuck is old it was just a matter of time before it caught up with him. Other guys are his age and "younger" - their conditioning seems to be better. I think Chuck is a victim of his own confidence. Maybe if he'd actually work hard on cardio he could be a top tier fighter.

Glad to see Diego go down in flames. Never been a fan of his. He was given a gift in his fight against Koscheck on TUF - and I'm no real fan of Koscheck either.

Griffin. Great win. Super. He did what a lot thought he couldn't do. Couture called it again. Edited by: Colonel Callan

 

[aussieaussie31]

aussieaussie31 wrote:
These upsets are starting to become the norm.

Nevada wrote "In MMA, favorites win about 75% of the time, going by sports book data. Upsets are not the norm".

Wow, I did not realize that my comments would be taken literally. Neveda, obviously I did not not intend to say that upsets happen more times than not. (I still can't believe I have to explain that comment to this guy)

IT WAS A FIGURE OF SPEACH!

What I intended to imply is that in the last 3-4 months or so we have seen alot of top tier fighters suffer defeats at the hands of other fighters that were widely thought of as being inferior.

Saint Pierre loses to Serra
Crocop loses to Gonzago (smaller upset but an upset none the less)
Crocop loses to Cheik congo
Shogun loses to Griffin
Jardine loses to alexander

Personally I think you are being anal and you know it. I hope you are not still sore about the I.Q. and genetics thing we were discussing on another topic.

 

[White Shogun]

aussieaussie31Saint Pierre loses to Serra
Crocop loses to Gonzago (smaller upset but an upset none the less)
Crocop loses to Cheik congo
Shogun loses to Griffin
Jardine loses to alexander

Don't forget:

Arona loses to Sokudjou
Nogueria loses to Sokudjou
Gomi loses to Diaz
Liddell loses to Jardine
Forrest loses to Jardine
Diego loses to Koscheck
Herring loses to O'Brien
Groves loses to Cote
Martin loses to Leben

Obviously, it could be argued that some of those aren't 'real' upsets, but that's a short list just off the top of my head from fights I watched this year.