Toby Gerhart

[cynicaloptimist]

Hi all,

long time lurker finally got around to posting. Seeing so many guys with such great potential be shafted has made me finally look into things and see if there is ANY basis for all the caste nonsense that gets spouted regularly by finding the proof in performances. I'm hoping to look into a few guys for this draft and find out why they are so much lower rated than their peers and to see if it's based on stats, measurable s....or something a little more visible....
First guy i've looked into was Gerhart and the results speak for themselves. I'm hoping to get this info into some kind of article to post on bleacher report (will dump here too), but to show you the sort of things i've found:

Comparison of the rush defences faced by Mayocks Top 5(6) and Gerhart.

CJ Spiller: mean average: 61st median average: 66th
Ryan Matthews: 74th / 77th
Jahvid Best : 56th / 51st
Jonathan Dwyer: 62nd / 67th
Joe McKnight: 54th / 48th
Dexter McCluster: 59th / 62nd

Toby Gerhart: 55th / 42nd

Info from:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2009&rpt=IA_teamrushdef&site=org

I've also done a few more tests like dividing each players yards vs each of their opponents / the average rush yards conceded by that team during the season to see how they matched up and once again Gerhart was tops.
In fact based on the stats, and therefore performance, i've yet to find something Gerhart doesn't come out on top for.

Will keep the info coming.

 

[cynicaloptimist]

Sorry for double post.
As promised the finished article:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/352386-the-case-for-toby-gerhart

The Case for Toby Gerhart

When was the last time the Heisman runner up wasn't considered to be in the Top 5 of his position by draft "experts"Â￾?
How about the Doak Walker award winner?
However both of these statements are true for Toby
Gerhart. In theory a back with this kind of pedigree who has amassed
over 1,800 yards, 27 TDs, a 5.5 YPC average and zero fumbles in the
PAC-10, as well as having the desired NFL size for a running back at
6'1'' and 235lbs would be a 1^st round consideration at the least, if not Top 10 overall.
Mike Mayocks recent list of Top 5 running backs reads:
1. C.J. Spiller
2. Ryan Matthews
3. Jahvid Best
4. Jonathan Dwyer
5. Joe McKnight/Dexter McCluster
A reasonably common ranking in the draft community
at the moment. To understand why these 6 players were better, or more
draftable, than Gerhart more information is needed.
To begin understanding why these players are
considered better prospects an obvious place to look is in their
respective production in their last year of college:
C.J. Spiller 216 attempts 1,212 yards 12 TDs 5.6YPC
Ryan Matthews 276 attempts 1,808 yards 19 TDs 6.6 YPC
Jahvid Best 141 attempts 867 yards 12 TDs 6.1 YPC
Jonathan Dwyer 235 attempts 1,395 yards 14TDs 5.9 YPC
Joe McKnight 164 attempts 1,014 yards 8 TDs 6.2 YPC
Dexter McCluster 181 attempts 1,169 yards 8 TDs 6.5 YPC
Toby Gerhart 343 attempts 1871 yards 27 TDs 5.5 YPC
As an addition Chris "Beanie"Â￾ Wells' information has been added as a benchmark for a similar (power) back who was drafted 31^st overall,(3^rd by position) and was considered one of the best running backs in his class.
Chris "Beanie"Â￾ Wells 207 attempts 1197 yards 8 TDs 5.8 YC
So Gerhart is the leader in total yards and TDs
and has still maintained a 5.5YPC average after 67 more attempts than
the next back (Ryan Matthews 276). He also compares favourably to
Beanie Wells in terms of production with higher yards and TDs a well as
a very similar YPC. However, the competition these players faced would
of course be the largest factor in their success as better opposition
requires better performances. As such the average rush defence that
each player has faced must be compared.
C.J. Spiller mean average 61^st / median average 66^th
Ryan Matthews 74^th / 77^th
Jahvid Best 56th / 51^st
Jonathan Dwyer 62nd / 67th
Joe McKnight 54th / 48th
Dexter McCluster 59th / 62nd
Beanie Wells 49^th / 50th
Toby Gerhart 55th / 42^nd
Info from:
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2009&rpt=IA_teamrushdef&site=org
(Note: Games vs. FCS teams not included, only games the back took part in were calculated.)
So from this it's apparent that Gerhart was also
facing better opposition on average than his peers over the course of
the season, thus meaning his greater production was not the result of
playing weaker defenses.
Another way to assess production is to compare the
yards each back gained against their opponents to the average rushing
yards that team conceded over the course of the season. Whilst this
stat can only be shown in terms of the average rush yards against by a
team it is fair to say a feature back should account for at least 80%
of his teams rushing. In the following comparison 80% would show as
0.8 with 1.0 meaning the back has rushed for the exact average yards
his opponents allowed in the season. Again the average of these
comparisons has been taken to show the backs productivity over the
course of the season.
CJ Spiller 0.67
Ryan Matthews 0.96
Jahvid Best 0.59
Jonathan Dwyer 0.67
Joe McKnight 0.61
Dexter McCluster 0.86
Beanie Wells 0.93
Toby Gerhart 1.07
Once again Gerhart comes out on top of the
comparison, showing that he rushed for more yards on average than the
teams he faced gave up on average over the course of the season. This
can be seen in his games versus Oklahoma (8^th ranked rush
defense, 135 yards gained when their average for the season was 92.92
yards), as well as versus Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon,
USC and Notre Dame. In fact for eight of the thirteen games he played
this season he exceeded the average rushing yards those teams gave up,
alone. By comparison CJ Spiller managed this twice and no other player
managed to exceed this average more than four times.
Another obvious sticking point is Gerhart being
"slow"Â￾. Well this also warrants investigation by looking at 40 yard
dash times and longest rush from scrimmage. Obviously with the combine
being underway these stats will be updated imminently.
40 yard dash Longest Rush
CJ Spiller 4.37 66 yards
Ryan Matthews 4.48 77 yards
Jahvid Best 4.42 93 yards
Jonathan Dwyer 4.48 74 yards
Joe McKnight 4.42 54 yards
Dexter McCluster 4.42 86 yards
Beanie Wells 4.52 59 yards
Toby Gerhart 4.55 61 yards
So according to the reference used (www.cbssports.com)
Gerhart is the slowest of the backs being compared. However, it is
worth noting that Gerhart supposedly ran a 4.43 whilst at Stanford and
has been training his speed since the end of the season. During the
combine it would not be unreasonable to expect him to run in the
4.44-4.47 range making him compare much more favourably to the other
backs, particularly as he is the heaviest of them along with Ryan
Matthews (235lbs). In addition Beanie Wells ran a 4.59 at the combine
last year and as he is the best basis for comparison shows the range
Gerhart should be expected to reach. The longest rush statistic also
compares well as it shows the backs ability to outrun pursuing
defenders, something not usually expected of a power back. As Gerharts
longest is just five yards short of CJ Spillers best effort, who is
considered a lightning fast back, it speaks volumes of his ability to
maintain top end speed despite the extra size and weight.
Hopefully some of the facts shown in this article
will have opened a few eyes to the quality of running back Toby Gerhart
is, and that he certainly doesn't deserve a third round grade. It has
been shown through reliable stats based solely on actual performance
that he faced tougher opposition on average and yet managed to produce
consistently. With the combine underway more of the unknowns will be
filled in such as how fast will he run the 40, and how will he perform
in the other drills, critically the bench press and agility drills.
Unless Toby has an atrocious day these results are sure to improve his
draft stock and show once again the quality he has presented every week
of the season and generate more buzz around him as the draft
approaches. If for nothing else the stats prove Gerhart is an every
down back who will excel in all situations, not just short yardage, and
that he has consistently bettered his peers where it matters most, on
the field.

(I also linked to Dwid's video in the comments section, thanks to him)

 

[whiteathlete33]

Welcome to Castefootball Cynical and thanks for posting. We will know after this weekend how Toby did and I can hardly wait.

 

[PhillyBirds]

Terrific statistical analysis, cynicaloptimist and welcome to Caste Football! I'm also of the belief that stats can be the best means of persuasion when it comes to analyzing the unfairness of the Caste system. Awesome stuff, looking forward to seeing more of your posts in the future!

 

[dwid]

Welcome to Castefootball cynicaloptimist . Nice analysis and breakdown of the competition each back played, it should be able to convince some dwfs and get them to wake up. Thanks for linking my vid, I have been trying to get as many views as possible, everyone keeps going to the older version, either the one from 08 or the one that has a few things from 09.

I had to take my son to a pediatrician appointment today and read something interesting in a Sports Illustrated magazine where people write into the magazine. It was labeled WHITE RUNNINGBACKS. Someone from GA wrote "I love watching Stanford Toby Gerhart because of the way he runs and loves the game, not because he is white (Point After Nov 30.) If he doesn't get a shot running the ball in the NFL then something is wrong.

(I am guessing it is referencing Point After Nov 30th maybe they were talking about people liking Toby Gerhart because he is White? I will have to look that up)

and then under it someone wrote about how Phil Taylor said concerning the lack of white runningbacks, its not racism holding them back, its mainly white coaches and talent evaluators that are choosing black runningbacks over whites. He wrote in response to that "Racism is based on the belief itself, not on who holds the belief"

surprised that they posted those comments in the magazine

EDIT: found the article they were talking about, Colonel Reb already posted in another thread on this sitehttp://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/phil_taylor/12/02/white.rushers/index.html The original article says the color line still exists even though its White coaches and talent evaluators. I glanced at the article and didn't see anything saying that people like Gerhart just because he is White.

I am hoping that if Toby gets a real shot and is successful (which I am positive he will be if given a real chance), it opens the door for other White runningbacks. I don't want it to be where he is the only token White allowed to run with the ball.

Edited by: dwid

 

[JReb1]

Good point dwid, Toby can't be allowed to become the Jason Seahorn of RB's. We KNOW that there's more than ONE White HB capable of starting or at the very least splitting carries in the NFL. There's NO logical reason that Hillis, Hester, Woodehead and Leonard aren't getting carries or proper playing time while much less capable RB's are getting numerous chances too succeed...

 

[Don Wassall]

The NFL was quite integrated in the 1960s and '70s, and White running backs were far from a rarity. There were great ones, good ones, and journeymen types. If I had to guess, comparing that time frame to today, there were less White RBs then than there are White tight ends now, but more than there are White LBs now.

It's likely very difficult to get exact percentages. Perhaps the rosters of every NFL and AFL team can be located on the Internet, but even then it wouldn't be clear whether certain players were White or black. It would probably take research done the old fashioned way,via a visit to a library. The NFL corporate headquarters must have them somewhere as well.I'm just going on my memory as a kid from watching games and collecting football cards.

What galls me is that there is no shortage of coaches, scouts, announcers, pundits, draft "experts" and the like wholike me areold enough to remember the NFL and college football pre-Caste System yet go along completely with the present paradigm that grossly discriminates against Whites at every position, to the point of completely shutting them out of certain positions. It's sickening andall of them are shamelessprostitutes/company men.

 

[whiteathlete33]

Does anyone know exactly when Toby's combine numbers will be available? Will it be Saturday or Sunday?

 

[dwid]

Should be available Sunday. OL and TE is on Saturday I believe and then Sunday is RB/WR/QB. Plenty of prospects measured today. Toby Gerhart came in at exactly 6'0 and 231, 32 inch arm length and 9 and 5/8 inch hands. The prospect they have rated higher than him, Dwyer hands measured in at 8 5/8 inch.

I was hoping Toby would come in a little lighter, but I guess if hes positive he can run in the 4.4 range at this weight then its fine.

 

[sport historian]

The NFL was quite integrated in the 1960s and '70s, and White running backs were far from a rarity.  There were great ones, good ones, and journeymen types.  If I had to guess, comparing that time frame to today, there were less White RBs then than there are White tight ends now, but more than there are White LBs now. 
<div> </div>
<div>It's likely very difficult to get exact percentages.  Perhaps the rosters of every NFL and AFL team can be located on the Internet, but even then it wouldn't be clear whether certain players were White or black.  It would probably take research done the old fashioned way, via a visit to a library.  The NFL corporate headquarters must have them somewhere as well. I'm just going on my memory as a kid from watching games and collecting football cards.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What galls me is that there is no shortage of coaches, scouts, announcers, pundits, draft "experts" and the like who like me are old enough to remember the NFL and college football pre-Caste System yet go along completely with the present paradigm that grossly discriminates against Whites at every position, to the point of completely shutting them out of certain positions.  It's sickening and all of them are shameless prostitutes/company men.  </div>

Just for the fun of it, I looked up how many white starting running backs there were in the NFL in 1973. This was the year O.J. Simpson ran for 2003 yards. In 1973, there were 13 white RBs who started most of the time, four (Csonka, Hubbard, Anderson, and Fred Willis) led their teams in rushing.

A few days ago, I was glancing at a pro football research site. They had an item that reported that the average per carry has not changed over 40 years. The league average is an even 4 yards per carry. Some years it dips to 3.9 or rises to 4.1. but averages out at 4 yards a carry most of the time. Having 100% of running backs black did not change this.

 

[whiteathlete33]

Thanks for the info Dwid. I'm sure Toby knows what he's doing and he can run in the 4.4 range at that weight.

 

[DixieDestroyer]

DWID & WA33, I was hoping Toby dropped to 220 or so for the 40 y/d at the combine. I'm confident he'll be under 4.5, as he's probably been training for the combine since the season ended. I'll be curious to see how many reps of 225# he knocks out & what his vert is.



Edited by: DixieDestroyer

 

[Don Wassall]

The NFL was quite integrated in the 1960s and '70s, and White running backs were far from a rarity. There were great ones, good ones, and journeymen types. If I had to guess, comparing that time frame to today, there were less White RBs then than there are White tight ends now, but more than there are White LBs now.



It's likely very difficult to get exact percentages. Perhaps the rosters of every NFL and AFL team can be located on the Internet, but even then it wouldn't be clear whether certain players were White or black. It would probably take research done the old fashioned way,via a visit to a library. The NFL corporate headquarters must have them somewhere as well.I'm just going on my memory as a kid from watching games and collecting football cards.



What galls me is that there is no shortage of coaches, scouts, announcers, pundits, draft "experts" and the like wholike me areold enough to remember the NFL and college football pre-Caste System yet go along completely with the present paradigm that grossly discriminates against Whites at every position, to the point of completely shutting them out of certain positions. It's sickening andall of them are shamelessprostitutes/company men.

Just for the fun of it, I looked up how many white starting running backs there were in the NFL in 1973. This was the year O.J. Simpson ran for 2003 yards. In 1973, there were 13 white RBs who started most of the time, four (Csonka, Hubbard, Anderson, and Fred Willis) led their teams in rushing.

A few days ago, I was glancing at a pro football research site. They had an item that reported that the average per carry has not changed over 40 years. The league average is an even 4 yards per carry. Some years it dips to 3.9 or rises to 4.1. but averages out at 4 yards a carry most of the time. Having 100% of running backs black did not change this.

Nice research, Sport Historian. The '73 figure is higher than I would have thought, half of the then 26 teams, a pretty startling number. That's the kind of statistic that anyone who doubts there's discrimination against whitesshould be aware of. Another one is that the undefeated '72 Dolphins only started one black on defense.

A decade later it was down to John Riggins among White running backs and . . . that's been about it ever since.

 

[JReb1]

I'm almost 37 and I'm old enough to remember seeing several White RB's playing until about 1986 or 87. I also remember there being numerous Whites playing defense on every team and almost every OL man was White until the late 80's early 90's. IMO those football teams were much better than the product we see today, I'm positive those teams from the 70's and 80's would beat today's almost 100% affletic teams. There's so much more to a football game than 40 times and being ridiculously overweight...

 

[whiteathlete33]

Here is another thing that is startling. Only one white defensive lineman was invited to the Combine this year. Correct me if I'm wrong guys but I'm pretty sure Erik Lorig is the only white lineman at the Combine. This has to be a new low.

 

[sport historian]

The NFL was quite integrated in the 1960s and '70s, and White running backs were far from a rarity.  There were great ones, good ones, and journeymen types.  If I had to guess, comparing that time frame to today, there were less White RBs then than there are White tight ends now, but more than there are White LBs now. 
<div> </div>
<div>It's likely very difficult to get exact percentages.  Perhaps the rosters of every NFL and AFL team can be located on the Internet, but even then it wouldn't be clear whether certain players were White or black.  It would probably take research done the old fashioned way, via a visit to a library.  The NFL corporate headquarters must have them somewhere as well. I'm just going on my memory as a kid from watching games and collecting football cards.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What galls me is that there is no shortage of coaches, scouts, announcers, pundits, draft "experts" and the like who like me are old enough to remember the NFL and college football pre-Caste System yet go along completely with the present paradigm that grossly discriminates against Whites at every position, to the point of completely shutting them out of certain positions.  It's sickening and all of them are shameless prostitutes/company men.  </div>

Just for the fun of it, I looked up how many white starting running backs there were in the NFL in 1973. This was the year O.J. Simpson ran for 2003 yards. In 1973, there were 13 white RBs who started most of the time, four (Csonka, Hubbard, Anderson, and Fred Willis) led their teams in rushing. A few days ago, I was glancing at a pro football research site. They had an item that reported that the average per carry has not changed over 40 years. The league average is an even 4 yards per carry. Some years it dips to 3.9 or rises to 4.1. but averages out at 4 yards a carry most of the time. Having 100% of running backs black did not change this.

<div> </div>
<div>Nice research, Sport Historian.  The '73 figure is higher than I would have thought, half of the then 26 teams, a pretty startling number.  That's the kind of statistic that anyone who doubts there's discrimination against whites should be aware of.  Another one is that the undefeated '72 Dolphins only started one black on defense.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A decade later it was down to John Riggins among White running backs and . . . that's been about it ever since.  </div>

From time to time, I'll post a thread on this subject. As you point out, there were 26 teams in 1973. Thirteen of them started a white running back. One correction. There were five who led their teams in rushing. Ed Podolak of Kansas City was the fifth. The other eight were Walt Garrison, Norm Bulaich, Vin Clements, Steve Owens, Jim Bertelsen, Ken Willard, John Riggins (who had held out), and Don McCauley.

 

[white is right]

I thought the percentage of White backs was less from this era. Maybe about 30 to 40 percent. But my memories are fuzzy as I was very young and I haven't seen highlight reels in years. I remember seeing some old football cards from this era and I forgot the percentage of White receivers was over 50 percent.

 

[Colonel_Reb]

Great information on the White NFL backs from 1973! I was hoping Toby would come in a little lighter, but hopefully he'll impress with his speed.

 

[dwid]

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20100227/SPORTS/100229521?Title=Gerhart-in-a-hurry-to-prove-himself

"Toby Gerhart shuns Alstott, Riggins comparisons, thinks he more like Eddie George or Corey Dillon."


"Gerhart led the nation in carries (311), rushing yards (1,736) and touchdowns (26) in leading the Cardinal to an 8-4 record. But his college resume is now seemingly being disregarded. The focus has turned to his limitations, such as a perceived lack of speed.

"That's what's great about this thing,"Â Gerhart said Saturday at the NFL Scouting Combine. "It's a chance to go out there and compare yourself to the best. I have a chance to go out there and run with the best of them and prove to teams I can play at their level, if not better."Â

Gerhart is scheduled to run the 40-yard dash today at Lucas Oil Stadium. It is his chance to establish himself among the top running backs in the draft â€" and break a stereotype along the way.

"I think I'm a little faster than people believe. I'm excited to run (today) and show that,"Â Gerhart said.

Gerhart was asked about the assumption that â€" because of his skin color â€" he will never win a footrace......."

funny how he has to reprove himself, it were an afflete, there wouldn't be any questions about speed, even if he did run a poor 40 yard dash they would say "watch the game film". Apparently its the opposite for Toby, Ive heard DWFS claim "I dont care if he runs a 4.4, he still is slow on film" I dont know what film they are watching. Nobody has questions about Dwyer, Blount, and Dixon when it comes to speed. They just "look faster on tape" even though Dixon looks like he is running through mud, must be the skin color that makes fans see a totally different thing.Edited by: dwid

 

[JReb1]

It's the placebo effect IMHO. The afflete is a DWF/coach/experts sugar pill and unfortunately for White athletes the placebo effect seems too have infected almost every DWF, GM, coach and scout... It's an uphill battle on a rigged battlefield for our people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Placebo

 

[backrow]

can't believe that rotoworld posted that:

Stanford RB Toby Gerhart ran 4.53 and 4.58 in the forty-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine on Sunday.

A time in the 4.4s would've been ideal, but this likely cements Gerhart as a tailback for NFL evaluators. Gerhart's athleticism has shockingly been questioned by those supposedly "in the know." We know that Gerhart is one of the better athletes of this generation as a 105-game starter for the Stanford baseball team and a two-year starting tailback under Jim Harbaugh.

 

[jacknyc]

I think Brian Leonard ran about the same time as Gerhart at his NFL combine.
Does anyone have Leonard's measurables vs. Gerhart's?
Both big and fast.
I'm curious as to how they compare.

 

[jacknyc]

Just looking through some old posts about Brian Leonard. He ran 4.49 and 4.52 at the combine.
34" vertical jump. 28 reps of 225lbs. Damn! that's better than Toby; and yet he got screwed.
We need to push and pray for Toby.

 

[Don Wassall]

Leonard ran a 4.49 at the 2007 Combine, and also had 28 benches. He's about the same size as Gerhart. His big mistake was eagerly moving to fullback his senior season at Rutgers, which made it easy for the media and"draft experts"to justify making him one in the NFL. (It also showed that he would not stick up for himself, instead always being a "team player.") Mike Mayock was the only draft "analyst" of note tomake the case forLeonard being a running back as a pro.

 

[Don Wassall]

When I saw the writer's name I expected the usual pro-Caste anti-White perspective, but kudos instead to Michael Abromowitz (though Peyton Hillis is clearly the top White running back in the NFL, not Leonard):

Top 10 2010 Favorite NFL Draft Prospects: Picks 6-10

6. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
There is no pretending, football still has racism involved. NFL teams and analysts are still trying to project Toby Gerhart as a fullback. Last time I checked, Gerhart was 6-0, 231 lbs and looked more like Michael Bush than a Mike Alstott. CBS Sports compares Gerhart to Brian Leonard of the Cincinnati Bengals who is currently considered the top white running back in the NFL. Outside of skin color, I do not see the comparison. Leonard is a 3rd down specialist who is known for his receiving skills. Gerhart on the other hand looks to be more of an every down player who only had 11 receptions in 2009. You got to root for a guy like Gerhart who is trying to change stereotypes. In high school, USC wanted him to play fullback, but Gerhart wanted to play running back, which is why he chose Stanford. The year is 2010, I thought the color of a person's skin was an afterthought. When was the last time a white defensive back did not get compared to John Lynch or Jason Sehorn? I look at Toby Gerhart and I do see a white man, but I also see an NFL running back.

http://thefootballexpert.com/top10favorite2010nfldraftprospects100001.html