charlie180 said:
For comparison, Dwain Chambers PB at 18 was 10.41s. Williamson's aged 18 was 10.42s. Edgar's was 10.39s. Aryteey's was 10.37s. James Dasaolu's was 10.75s, I think you get the picture. Maybe it is because whites peak earlier? Or just a sure fire bet that blacks will go on to do better?
...and Asafa Powell's best time as an 18-year old was 10.8.
Speaking of "maturity" in a physiological sense, whites mature later than equatorial people, and also live longer. Physiologically, for instance, Jeremy Wariner is only something like 39 days older than Usain Bolt (if it is proper to apply averages to particular invidividual cases - of course it's not, but it can be illustrative).
However "sprint maturity" is not necessarily the same thing as "physiological maturity". Voluminous athletic training in the white physiology builds strength, speed, and endurance. The west African simply doesn't build endurance very well, which leaves more resources for the other subsystems of strength and speed to increase. Throw drugs into the equation to compensate for the lack of stamina and recovery, and now you have created a sprinting star.
Intelligent plyometric methods can perhaps enable the white athlete to build speed and strength without wasting physiological resources on also building endurance. Yes, being able to adjust to the rigors of training by building endurance is a good thing almost always, but perhaps not in the short sprints.
After watching Lemaitre (literally, "The Master" -- I like that better than "Pepe") run 10.04 with no wind and perhaps still favoring one side a little (watching him bob during the race and then also the way he walked after the race, I thought it looked like he might still be feeling that groin injury a bit) and with a tall boy's insufficient strength to have a real drive phase -- literally, I thought the timing must have been wrong. He can run faster, much faster, and still has enormous room to grow and fill out.
Put him on dope and give him some intelligent training methods appropriate to the white physiology, and he runs a 9.5. Not that such would be a good thing, but realistically this is the range that he could be running if he were to follow the Ben Johnson training school.
Bolt does not have Christophe's talent at a comparable physiological age. When Bolt ran those world records last year, he had already been at his full height for about 7 years (one article on IAAF said he was 6'5 at 15, another implied something else).
Does anyone know long ago it was that Christophe reached basically his current height?
And even without maturity or dope or advanced training methods, we might see Guliyev go deep into the Worlds this year. After seeing that 20.04 he ran, I don't think it's overly optimistic to hope to seem him break into the 19.7 range this year. That would be within striking distance of a world record prior to 1996 -- all from a 19-year old from a country without a rich track athletics background. Probably with rounds and such, it is not realistic, but in a one-shot competition in the right venue, yes.
Lemaitre and Guliyev in my opinion are the greatest young talents since Bolt as a 17-year old. But they have more room to grow than Bolt, who had plateaued several years before he "got serious". Tyson Gay was a very good college talent who anyone could see would run much faster once he put on some muscle (which he has), but he cannot compare then with what these 19-year old kids are doing right now.
