Heisman Trophy now a "Golden Ticket" for QB's?

Truthteller

Truthteller

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Watching a college game Saturday, I saw a very odd trivia question: Who was the last player to win the Heisman Trophy and not be a top 10 NFL Draft pick?

Answer was Lamar Jackson, who won the Trophy back in 2016 and drafted in 2018 (first round).

Since 2010, every non-white quarterback (except Jackson) to win the Heisman has been a top 2 pick: (2024), Jayden Daniels (2023), Caleb Williams (2022), Bryce Young (2021), Kyler Murray (2018), Marcus Mariota (2014), Jameis Winston (2013), Robert Griffin III (2011), Cam Newton (2010).

Since 2019, Burrow was clearly a legitimate "Franchise Prospect" and Daniels also had the size and skills that teams might covet. But the other three, particularly Murray and Young, seemed well out of the norm -- too short, too small overall and nothing particularly special? Yet they all went #1 overall!


Here's my question: When did winning the Heisman, or finishing runner-up (Cam Ward), become a "Golden Ticket" to being #1 overall in the draft?

It was not always that way. I went back to 1970, NFL-AFL merger, and noted quite a few Heisman quarterback's came no where close to first round, let alone #1 overall. List includes Pat Sullivan, Doug Flutie, Ty Detmer, Gino Torretta, Jason White (undrafted), Eric Crouch and Chris Weinke. Even black quarterbacks Charlie Ward (NBA) and Troy Smith went undrafted.


So, again, has winning Heisman become a "Golden Ticket" to being #1 overall in the draft?

Notes:

** Looking back, I didn't realize how much the Heisman Trophy skewed towards running backs from early 1970's to end of the 1990's. From 1972 to 1999, QB's winning the Heisman was fairly rare.

**Mel Kiper dubbed Bryce Young the "Steph Curry" of the NFL Draft. Yet, based on what I've seen his talent level is very similar to Colt McCoy. Colt is actually bigger. Yet Carolina frittered away consecutive #1 overall's for him? If Young was white, would he have been drafted at all? Considering Will Howard, who led Ohio State to a national title and has ideal NFL size and decent arm strength, went round 5?

** Tim Tebow won a Heisman, sneaked into round and led the Broncos to a playoff win as a rookie. But was moved to H-back/punt protector early in his career. Eric Crouch, never got a chance to play quarterback in NFL, as he was moved to wide receiver (Rams 3rd round). Frustrated, he retired. When he ran out of cash, he went to NFL Europe to play safety, but never got a legit shot as a NFL safety (Green Bay) and never played in the NFL.
 
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It’s interesting because for the longest time the narrative around heisman award winning qbs was that they typically peaked in college and were products of the system - Jason White, Chris Weinke, Troy Smith, Danny Weurffel, Gino Touretta, Ty Detmer etc.

It could be another example of the college offensive systems moving into the NfL due to rule changes. The timelines certainly line up.
 
Leonardfan said:
It’s interesting because for the longest time the narrative around heisman award winning qbs was that they typically peaked in college and were products of the system - Jason White, Chris Weinke, Troy Smith, Danny Weurffel, Gino Touretta, Ty Detmer etc.

It could be another example of the college offensive systems moving into the NfL due to rule changes. The timelines certainly line up.
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Good point, Leo. I agree that's a huge factor. But, initially, my first thought was NFL teams are automatically gifting some of these black Heisman quarterbacks top two spots based on the "hype" and "prestige" surrounding the award.

Like telling low IQ fans, if Murray or Young is the best quarterback/player in college, why shouldn't they be #1 overall -- despite the obvious physical traits lacking. Same could be said for Cam Ward, a former FCS recruit who, via Heisman hype, suddenly vaulted to "god-like" status at Miami.

But, as you noted, it wasn't always like that!
 
I think that there used to be an understanding in the NFL and scouting departments that there are guys who will excel in the pros and guys who won't. They also understood that gimmicky college offenses that put up video game numbers did not produce pro-ready QBs who you'd want to invest heavily in. Hence why a Troy Smith went undrafted. At some point (which I believe LF has noted many times over the years), that changed and these black (and some White) college stars in pass happy systems now seem to have evaded proper criticism and evaluation. Since very few QBs take snaps under center, or attempt to stay in the pocket post snap, the importance of having height also diminished. So guys like Murray and Young were allowed to be #1 picks where as earlier decade versions Charlie Ward and Smith were not. However we can now see that they were correct in the 1990s and early aughts, as these guys being pushed to the top of the drafts are flopping spectacularly.
 
Freethinker said:
So guys like Murray and Young were allowed to be #1 picks where as earlier decade versions Charlie Ward and Smith were not. However we can now see that they were correct in the 1990s and early aughts, as these guys being pushed to the top of the drafts are flopping spectacularly.
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Good points. I think Murray is the modern day equivalent of a young Doug Flutie. He isn't terrible statistically, but at some point Arizona has to look at his win-loss record and "move on". Young is a shorter version of Ty Detmer, a 9th round pick, who started 25 games over 14 or 15 NFL seasons? I still can't believe Carolina frittered away two-#1 overall picks to draft him. Even Stephen A. Smith said he stood next Young and could not believe he was a NFL quarterback.

If Dante Moore wins the Heisman, I think he'd be the very likely #1 or #2 overall, even though he doesn't seem worthy of it. Right now, not even close! This is the same Dante Moore that was widely heralded as a 5-star (plus) recruit and gifted the starting UCLA job by Chip Kelly and couldn't keep it for a month back in 2023. Beat out by some sophomore (at the time), total non-NFL prospect named "Ethan". Forgot his name?

Moore is, also, playing on a "tilted field". Phil Knight and other Oregon alum spend untold millions of N.I.L. money, so their offensive talent overwhelms most of their opponents. If he still played at UCLA, the Bruins would likely have the same record. Another "system QB", perhaps, heading to #1 overall status based on modern day "Heisman Hype".

P.S: If Carson Beck, Josh Hoover or Stockton win the Heisman, I doubt they go anywhere close to 1st or 2nd overall. Just Saying?


CBS Sports: 4 days ago

QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (+650)
QB Dante Moore, Oregon (+1000)
WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+1000)
QB Carson Beck, Miami (+1200)
QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+1200)
QB Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (+1400)
QB Jayden Maiava, USC (+1400)
QB Josh Hoover, TCU (+1400)
 
At some point those gimmicky college offenses went from being relatively niche to being the norm. That's what really changed everything. Guys like Urban Meyer, Rich Rodriguez, and Chip Kelly really put them on the map with the spread option in the 2000s and 2010s. I still remember when "pro style" college offenses were the norm about 25 years ago. But "pro style" meant something different back then because there was a stark contrast between what pro teams were doing and what the gimmicky college teams were doing. Now, at the absolutely simplest level in college and the pros, most teams are running the spread option with each team putting their own unique twist on it. These days a "pro style" and "spread option" offense are one in the same at their cores. Yes, it's true that some teams don't lean as heavily into the option component. But what's absolutely clear is that lining up in shotgun and spreading out the receivers (regardless of personnel) is the norm for all offenses. Yesterday's gimmicky college offenses are today's bread and butter offenses. And as many posters on this forum have astutely noted, that has completely changed how QBs are evaluated.
 
Truthteller said:
Good points. I think Murray is the modern day equivalent of a young Doug Flutie. He isn't terrible statistically, but at some point Arizona has to look at his win-loss record and "move on". Young is a shorter version of Ty Detmer, a 9th round pick, who started 25 games over 14 or 15 NFL seasons? I still can't believe Carolina frittered away two-#1 overall picks to draft him. Even Stephen A. Smith said he stood next Young and could not believe he was a NFL quarterback.

If Dante Moore wins the Heisman, I think he'd be the very likely #1 or #2 overall, even though he doesn't seem worthy of it. Right now, not even close! This is the same Dante Moore that was widely heralded as a 5-star (plus) recruit and gifted the starting UCLA job by Chip Kelly and couldn't keep it for a month back in 2023. Beat out by some sophomore (at the time), total non-NFL prospect named "Ethan". Forgot his name?

Moore is, also, playing on a "tilted field". Phil Knight and other Oregon alum spend untold millions of N.I.L. money, so their offensive talent overwhelms most of their opponents. If he still played at UCLA, the Bruins would likely have the same record. Another "system QB", perhaps, heading to #1 overall status based on modern day "Heisman Hype".

P.S: If Carson Beck, Josh Hoover or Stockton win the Heisman, I doubt they go anywhere close to 1st or 2nd overall. Just Saying?


CBS Sports: 4 days ago

QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (+650)
QB Dante Moore, Oregon (+1000)
WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+1000)
QB Carson Beck, Miami (+1200)
QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+1200)
QB Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (+1400)
QB Jayden Maiava, USC (+1400)
QB Josh Hoover, TCU (+1400)
Click to expand...

Not to derail the conversation but since the PSU game Moore has been artificially pushed up Heisman rankings and draft boards. Frankly, he was not very impressive, did not have any "Heisman" moments in that game. He's just a plug and play into the offensive system. Not overly athletic, not an overly impressive arm, simple reads, lots of short throws etc. This of course does all tie into many of the other great points made in this thread. Moore has emerged as the media's black savior this year since Sellers has disappointed. It's really that simple.

Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Sayin are all better and more impressive than Moore. Mateer was the favorite but since his injury will keep him out their is no shot he will win. I'd say the favorite should be either Pavia or Mendoza at this point in the season.
 
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Leo, great points. Also, putting aside the "race issues", why would it benefit "any quarterback" to leave college after just one season of steady playing time? Particularly when they are getting paid millions via N.I.L. cash? Can't plead "poverty" anymore!

Yet, Mel Kiper and others at ESPN and Fox Sports are pushing Dante Moore as a potential #1 overall, even though his first season at UCLA was a total train-wreck. Why not let Moore prove himself over the span of two seasons? They did the same overhyping with Trey Lance and we saw how well that worked for the 49ers :oops:

Ironically, Kiper is not even including Texas star Arch Manning in his "rankings", because he believes Arch will return for his junior year. I, personally, believe Arch would be foolish to leave early, regarding his long term NFL future. Uncle Peyton started 4 years at Tennessee and Eli stayed 5 years at Ole Miss. So why would it make sense for Dante Moore or LaNorris Sellers to leave two years early?

Only way I think Arch should even "consider' leaving early, is if New Orleans picks #1 overall. N.O. is where he's from and he's the Grandson of teams' first ever star QB.
 
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