The 5 year draft average for Tailbacks is 18. About 35 tailbacks make it to NFL training camp per year.
(With the bad black RB Combine showing hopefully some smart teams will seriously look at the white guys, but again this is a bad year for white RBs. The situation looks much better next year and should continue to improve a bit with the small increase in white FBS runners) These are the white RB/FBs I think that should be drafted.
1. James Casey (multidimensional prospect): Rank 1st: Early 2nd Round: This guy is "a poor man's" Peyton Hillis as far as his athletic ability. Casey is very versatile and could be used as a hybrid fullback/tailback, a TE and an H-back. He didn't get a great deal of carries at Rice, but when he did he produced fairly well. I would use Casey in a variety of roles due to his multi-dimensional talents. Casey had over 1,000 yards receiving as an H-Back/TE at Rice last year. This guy would be a great 2nd round pick and he could even be used in the wildcat b/c he can throw the ball a bit too!
2. Tyler Roehl
(Great College career. He ran all over FBS Minnesota last year when FCS North Dakota State played them. A good cut-back power runner prospect; has the vision to follow blockers; sees the hole and bursts through with vengeance and will run through any lame tackle attempts. Has the 10 yard explosion for a north-south cut and go type running style. His top-end speed is better than you'd think as well (he ran a 4.53 at his Pro Day). His agility in tight spaces also appears solid (for a draftable power running prospect). This guy will fight for yards like a junk yard dog and knows how to get the job done.) Late 3rd/ Early 4th round talent or so due to lower level of play. Roehl is now ranked as the 35th best RB by NFLdraftscout which is far too low.
3. Stan Zwinggi
(Saw his highlight film and the guy has absolutely BLAZING speed. He also has solid ability to make a quick cut for a draft worthy smaller tailback prospect. His first cut to find the hole is his best cut and with his freakish straight lined speed that is the most important cut; cause when there is daylight in the 2nd level he is gone! He also runs harder than you'd expect for his smaller size. His production wasn't very good though, especially when you consider he's an FCS product, but this was mostly due to lack of carries; his YPC was fine.)
4th round or so caliber player. Zwinggi just moved up to the 42nd best RB on NFLdraftscout (amazingly this is from one of the more "fair" services out there). This is still way too low. Zwinggi is in the top 15 tailbacks if you ask me and certainly in the top 20. I currently have Stan Zwinggi as the 13th best RB overall.
4. Brannan Southerland (Fullback/Powerback)
(I originally projected him as only a FB b/c he did so well there in college, but he looks to have the versatility to be a change of pace Power-back from his performance at the Combine. I was also convinced of this from what I've read and little I've seen of him running. He could get 10-15 carries a game from both the FB and HB spots. He would be good in short yardage/goal-line and 4th quarter situations when the D is worn out. 4.68 40 isn't prototypical tailback speed. However, he has a burst and had a 38 inch vertical and 10 foot broad jump showing EXPLOSION; I also read he squats 700 lbs. I Haven't watched him run enough to really get a great sense of his agility, but from what little I've seen and what I've read, it probably wouldn't be a great asset in the NFL. Southerland might be best only used as a tailback to close out games in the 4th quarter.
5th round or so caliber player.
5. Julian Edelman
(This guy could be a high reward pick in the 7th round as a "project" RB. He has showed amazing running skills at QB for Kent State and ran an eye popping 3.92 short shuttle and 6.62 3-Cone recently at his Pro Day showing he is a VERY agile prospect. Edelman also has a 40 time of 4.52, a Broad Jump of 10-3 and a vertical of 36.5 inches. Draft Daddy has compared his abilities to Eric Crouch and I think he could make the switch over to RB fine if given the chance. Although he lacks a strong arm, Edelman could also be used as a good backup and Wildcat QB in the NFL as well. The guy is indeed an athletic freak and could be drafted much higher than his 19th tailback ranking indicates due to his versatility.)
6. Nate Kmic
(I don't think Nate is as good a prospect as Stan Zwinggi for a small school scat-back. He is a complete and utter STUD in Division III, no doubt. He is a slasher, who's agility is certainly "good enough for the NFL". He cuts similar to Zwinggi; he has around average agility overall for an NFL scat-back. However, he has a great burst to the hole. In the second level he mostly uses angles to get the most out of his runs, but does show some ability to scat in tight spaces when he has to. For his size displays some power, but tackling is much better in the NFL. His speed doesn't appear like it would be a great asset in the NFL. He certainly isn't as good a prospect as Danny Woodhead. Absolutely dominated in Division III, but would likely be a role player in the NFL. He seems like a Kevin Faulk type player to me and should be used the same way as Kevin in the NFL, but he will have to prove himself to stick on a roster, being a Division III player.)
7th round/PFA.
7. Kyle Bell
(Just ran a 4.54 at his Pro Day and displayed solid measurables in the agility drills as well. He just needs to get his confidence back. His production dipped big time after his knee injury, but he was starting to get a bit of his grove back last year. However, the slow and un-elusive power-back Gartrell Johnson was featured to the point that Bell never had a chance to get in a grove. Before Bell's injury he was reminiscent of John Riggins. He would read his blocks, make a great first cut and then just burst to the hole like a beast just out of a cage. When in the second level he would see daylight and get that bounce in his stride as he cut to daylight.) In a fair world someone might take a chance on Bell with a 7th round pick due to his former production/ stellar ability.
8. Brock Bolen (Powerback/Fullback)
(Probably a better running version of Brannan Southerland, but not as good a blocker and his leg strength isn't as FREAKISH; showed impressive vision when I saw him play for Louisville. He also has solid first cut ability and then hits the hole hard. He's a true north-south back. He seems to have trouble cutting through traffic. Most of his yards would be from his vision and superbly hard-nosed running in the NFL. Lacks ideal speed for a tailback and his 10 yard clip wasn't as good as I thought it would be. Only ran a 4.77 40 yard dash at his Pro Day and his 10 yard clip was only 1.65, but his other workout numbers were solid. I don't know whether I see Bolen as a 7th round pick or priority FA. If Bolen makes an NFL roster it is due to his versatility, heart and the fact that you know what you are getting in him as a player although his upside is limited.) Priority FA
Wild Card: Eric Kettani
(Has military obligations. Another cut-back power running prospect like Roehl. He is certainly a better prospect than blacks like Brandon Ore, Gartrell Johnson or Kahil Bell and P.J Hill etc. who got lots of hype and stunk it up at the Combine. He runs with great leg drive and has good vision to find the seam to hit the second level. Makes his first cut following the block and explodes up field with his impressive burst. He also will surprise you with his ability to make the first tackler miss. Note: Navy option offense may have inflated his stats some)
4th/5th round and my 3rd ranked white RB if not for the military commitment.
No Guys; Unfortunately there aren't any FREAKISH caliber prospects this year at HB that will likely make it through. Hopefully that will be on the horizon with Sharp, Hawkins (if his workload increases), McGuffie, Wegher, Burkhead, Gaffney, Trumpy etc. And these last guys mentioned are all amazingly elusive prospects. Let's hope that the caste system doesn't destroy their careers.
Edited to add: Things can only go up from here.
Edited by: ToughJ.Riggins