Heisman Trophy now a "Golden Ticket" for QB's?

Watching a college game Saturday, I saw a very odd trivia question: Who was the last player to win the Heisman Trophy and not be a top 10 NFL Draft pick?

Answer was Lamar Jackson, who won the Trophy back in 2016 and drafted in 2018 (first round).

Since 2010, every non-white quarterback (except Jackson) to win the Heisman has been a top 2 pick: (2024), Jayden Daniels (2023), Caleb Williams (2022), Bryce Young (2021), Kyler Murray (2018), Marcus Mariota (2014), Jameis Winston (2013), Robert Griffin III (2011), Cam Newton (2010).

Since 2019, Burrow was clearly a legitimate "Franchise Prospect" and Daniels also had the size and skills that teams might covet. But the other three, particularly Murray and Young, seemed well out of the norm -- too short, too small overall and nothing particularly special? Yet they all went #1 overall!


Here's my question: When did winning the Heisman, or finishing runner-up (Cam Ward), become a "Golden Ticket" to being #1 overall in the draft?

It was not always that way. I went back to 1970, NFL-AFL merger, and noted quite a few Heisman quarterback's came no where close to first round, let alone #1 overall. List includes Pat Sullivan, Doug Flutie, Ty Detmer, Gino Torretta, Jason White (undrafted), Eric Crouch and Chris Weinke. Even black quarterbacks Charlie Ward (NBA) and Troy Smith went undrafted.


So, again, has winning Heisman become a "Golden Ticket" to being #1 overall in the draft?

Notes:

** Looking back, I didn't realize how much the Heisman Trophy skewed towards running backs from early 1970's to end of the 1990's. From 1972 to 1999, QB's winning the Heisman was fairly rare.

**Mel Kiper dubbed Bryce Young the "Steph Curry" of the NFL Draft. Yet, based on what I've seen his talent level is very similar to Colt McCoy. Colt is actually bigger. Yet Carolina frittered away consecutive #1 overall's for him? If Young was white, would he have been drafted at all? Considering Will Howard, who led Ohio State to a national title and has ideal NFL size and decent arm strength, went round 5?

** Tim Tebow won a Heisman, sneaked into round and led the Broncos to a playoff win as a rookie. But was moved to H-back/punt protector early in his career. Eric Crouch, never got a chance to play quarterback in NFL, as he was moved to wide receiver (Rams 3rd round). Frustrated, he retired. When he ran out of cash, he went to NFL Europe to play safety, but never got a legit shot as a NFL safety (Green Bay) and never played in the NFL.

It’s interesting because for the longest time the narrative around heisman award winning qbs was that they typically peaked in college and were products of the system - Jason White, Chris Weinke, Troy Smith, Danny Weurffel, Gino Touretta, Ty Detmer etc.

It could be another example of the college offensive systems moving into the NfL due to rule changes. The timelines certainly line up.

Leonardfan said:

It’s interesting because for the longest time the narrative around heisman award winning qbs was that they typically peaked in college and were products of the system - Jason White, Chris Weinke, Troy Smith, Danny Weurffel, Gino Touretta, Ty Detmer etc.

It could be another example of the college offensive systems moving into the NfL due to rule changes. The timelines certainly line up.

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Good point, Leo. I agree that's a huge factor. But, initially, my first thought was NFL teams are automatically gifting some of these black Heisman quarterbacks top two spots based on the "hype" and "prestige" surrounding the award.

Like telling low IQ fans, if Murray or Young is the best quarterback/player in college, why shouldn't they be #1 overall -- despite the obvious physical traits lacking. Same could be said for Cam Ward, a former FCS recruit who, via Heisman hype, suddenly vaulted to "god-like" status at Miami.

But, as you noted, it wasn't always like that!

I think that there used to be an understanding in the NFL and scouting departments that there are guys who will excel in the pros and guys who won't. They also understood that gimmicky college offenses that put up video game numbers did not produce pro-ready QBs who you'd want to invest heavily in. Hence why a Troy Smith went undrafted. At some point (which I believe LF has noted many times over the years), that changed and these black (and some White) college stars in pass happy systems now seem to have evaded proper criticism and evaluation. Since very few QBs take snaps under center, or attempt to stay in the pocket post snap, the importance of having height also diminished. So guys like Murray and Young were allowed to be #1 picks where as earlier decade versions Charlie Ward and Smith were not. However we can now see that they were correct in the 1990s and early aughts, as these guys being pushed to the top of the drafts are flopping spectacularly.

Freethinker said:

So guys like Murray and Young were allowed to be #1 picks where as earlier decade versions Charlie Ward and Smith were not. However we can now see that they were correct in the 1990s and early aughts, as these guys being pushed to the top of the drafts are flopping spectacularly.

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Good points. I think Murray is the modern day equivalent of a young Doug Flutie. He isn't terrible statistically, but at some point Arizona has to look at his win-loss record and "move on". Young is a shorter version of Ty Detmer, a 9th round pick, who started 25 games over 14 or 15 NFL seasons? I still can't believe Carolina frittered away two-#1 overall picks to draft him. Even Stephen A. Smith said he stood next Young and could not believe he was a NFL quarterback.

If Dante Moore wins the Heisman, I think he'd be the very likely #1 or #2 overall, even though he doesn't seem worthy of it. Right now, not even close! This is the same Dante Moore that was widely heralded as a 5-star (plus) recruit and gifted the starting UCLA job by Chip Kelly and couldn't keep it for a month back in 2023. Beat out by some sophomore (at the time), total non-NFL prospect named "Ethan". Forgot his name?

Moore is, also, playing on a "tilted field". Phil Knight and other Oregon alum spend untold millions of N.I.L. money, so their offensive talent overwhelms most of their opponents. If he still played at UCLA, the Bruins would likely have the same record. Another "system QB", perhaps, heading to #1 overall status based on modern day "Heisman Hype".

P.S: If Carson Beck, Josh Hoover or Stockton win the Heisman, I doubt they go anywhere close to 1st or 2nd overall. Just Saying?


CBS Sports: 4 days ago

QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (+650)
QB Dante Moore, Oregon (+1000)
WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+1000)
QB Carson Beck, Miami (+1200)
QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+1200)
QB Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (+1400)
QB Jayden Maiava, USC (+1400)
QB Josh Hoover, TCU (+1400)

At some point those gimmicky college offenses went from being relatively niche to being the norm. That's what really changed everything. Guys like Urban Meyer, Rich Rodriguez, and Chip Kelly really put them on the map with the spread option in the 2000s and 2010s. I still remember when "pro style" college offenses were the norm about 25 years ago. But "pro style" meant something different back then because there was a stark contrast between what pro teams were doing and what the gimmicky college teams were doing. Now, at the absolutely simplest level in college and the pros, most teams are running the spread option with each team putting their own unique twist on it. These days a "pro style" and "spread option" offense are one in the same at their cores. Yes, it's true that some teams don't lean as heavily into the option component. But what's absolutely clear is that lining up in shotgun and spreading out the receivers (regardless of personnel) is the norm for all offenses. Yesterday's gimmicky college offenses are today's bread and butter offenses. And as many posters on this forum have astutely noted, that has completely changed how QBs are evaluated.

Truthteller said:

Good points. I think Murray is the modern day equivalent of a young Doug Flutie. He isn't terrible statistically, but at some point Arizona has to look at his win-loss record and "move on". Young is a shorter version of Ty Detmer, a 9th round pick, who started 25 games over 14 or 15 NFL seasons? I still can't believe Carolina frittered away two-#1 overall picks to draft him. Even Stephen A. Smith said he stood next Young and could not believe he was a NFL quarterback.

If Dante Moore wins the Heisman, I think he'd be the very likely #1 or #2 overall, even though he doesn't seem worthy of it. Right now, not even close! This is the same Dante Moore that was widely heralded as a 5-star (plus) recruit and gifted the starting UCLA job by Chip Kelly and couldn't keep it for a month back in 2023. Beat out by some sophomore (at the time), total non-NFL prospect named "Ethan". Forgot his name?

Moore is, also, playing on a "tilted field". Phil Knight and other Oregon alum spend untold millions of N.I.L. money, so their offensive talent overwhelms most of their opponents. If he still played at UCLA, the Bruins would likely have the same record. Another "system QB", perhaps, heading to #1 overall status based on modern day "Heisman Hype".

P.S: If Carson Beck, Josh Hoover or Stockton win the Heisman, I doubt they go anywhere close to 1st or 2nd overall. Just Saying?


CBS Sports: 4 days ago

QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (+650)
QB Dante Moore, Oregon (+1000)
WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (+1000)
QB Carson Beck, Miami (+1200)
QB Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+1200)
QB Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (+1400)
QB Jayden Maiava, USC (+1400)
QB Josh Hoover, TCU (+1400)

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Not to derail the conversation but since the PSU game Moore has been artificially pushed up Heisman rankings and draft boards. Frankly, he was not very impressive, did not have any "Heisman" moments in that game. He's just a plug and play into the offensive system. Not overly athletic, not an overly impressive arm, simple reads, lots of short throws etc. This of course does all tie into many of the other great points made in this thread. Moore has emerged as the media's black savior this year since Sellers has disappointed. It's really that simple.

Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Sayin are all better and more impressive than Moore. Mateer was the favorite but since his injury will keep him out their is no shot he will win. I'd say the favorite should be either Pavia or Mendoza at this point in the season.

Leo, great points. Also, putting aside the "race issues", why would it benefit "any quarterback" to leave college after just one season of steady playing time? Particularly when they are getting paid millions via N.I.L. cash? Can't plead "poverty" anymore!

Yet, Mel Kiper and others at ESPN and Fox Sports are pushing Dante Moore as a potential #1 overall, even though his first season at UCLA was a total train-wreck. Why not let Moore prove himself over the span of two seasons? They did the same overhyping with Trey Lance and we saw how well that worked for the 49ers

Ironically, Kiper is not even including Texas star Arch Manning in his "rankings", because he believes Arch will return for his junior year. I, personally, believe Arch would be foolish to leave early, regarding his long term NFL future. Uncle Peyton started 4 years at Tennessee and Eli stayed 5 years at Ole Miss. So why would it make sense for Dante Moore or LaNorris Sellers to leave two years early?

Only way I think Arch should even "consider' leaving early, is if New Orleans picks #1 overall. N.O. is where he's from and he's the Grandson of teams' first ever star QB.

https://www.on3.com/news/heisman-tr...g-favorites-after-week-5-of-college-football/

Moore getting the magical push from Vegas.

Leonardfan said:

Moore getting the magical push from Vegas.

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Leo, back around 2009 or 210, Mel Kiper was droning on about quarterbacks that had a sudden drop in "draft stock". He used ex-Kentucky Wildcat Andre Woodson, Giants 6th round pick by black GM Jerry Reese, as an example. Right there, ex-NFL Pro Bowl quarterback Ron Jaworski stepped up and challenged Kiper. Got so intense, that the usually even-keeled Kiper started to glare at Jaws and was left speechless!

Jaws said something like this to Kiper: Woodson was never a first rounder, not even close, so he never dropped. You guys (Kiper, McShay, F. Yates, M. Greenberg, ect?) can make all the predictions and guesses you want, but your rankings mean absolutely nothing. We only start to get a clear picture when actual "NFL coaches get involved" months prior to the draft .

Here's some 2024 direct quotes from legendary, ex-NFL GM Bill Polian that are similar to Jaworski's chiding of Kiper and all the other "draft experts". Might provide some insight into why all of these black Heisman winners or finalist's (Cam Ward) are suddenly being automatically pushed to the Top 5 of the draft by the Sports Media Industrial Complex.

What’s totally out of whack are how quarterbacks and other players are viewed by what Polian refers to as the Draft Industrial Complex.

He said, “What’s so pervasive today is that the ignorance of the so-called experts in the media is breathtaking, No. 1. And No. 2, they fail to tell their listeners or readers that they don’t have at least 45 percent of the information that the clubs have. They don’t have the medical; they don’t have the psychological; they should not have, unfortunately too many get it, snippets of the intellectual testing and they absolutely don’t have any readout on the visits that the players make and the interviews that they have with the coaching staff.

“So that’s 45 percent of the grade and in the case of quarterbacks, it’s almost 60 percent of the grade. So they have no idea what we’re seeing and doing and they’re painting a false picture. It's entertainment. As long as fans recognize that it’s entertainment and not information, then everything will be fine. The problem is that some people in that business take themselves seriously and they get upset if you did something that they didn’t anticipate. Then, it’s a reach, then it’s terrible .... this GM’s terrible.”

Asked what that 60 percent for quarterbacks consists of, Polian explained, “The most difficult thing you have to judge with a quarterback is a) his ability to recognize defenses, b) his ability to process it quickly, c) his ability to know where to go with the football and d) the ability to do it accurately under pressure".....

It’s always a reminder of what former Saints and Colts head coach Jim Mora once said to the media, “You really don’t know. You think you know, but you don’t know and you never will.”

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Asked what that 60 percent for quarterbacks consists of, Polian explained, “The most difficult thing you have to judge with a quarterback is a) his ability to recognize defenses, b) his ability to process it quickly, c) his ability to know where to go with the football and d) the ability to do it accurately under pressure".....

How totally 1980's! Polian really needs to get with the program. #1 quality is the ability to do exciting runs with the football, and second to be able to quickly hit your first read. If that can be done, the Heisman is in the bag and the #1 overall pick follows shortly. Of course having an abundance of melanin is extremely helpful as it gets the media and all of the draft pundits behind you too.

Polian was pretty White friendly during his tenure as GM but the Colts during his time as GM were responsible for opening up the passing game after the 2003 AFC championship game. It certainly benefitted QBs for the last 20 years but to the detriment of the competitive balance of the game. Sure the rules were already in place since the late 70s but the game changed quite a bit with the emphasis outlined below. Many of the zone read/spread concepts would not be around today if the Colts did not push for these rule changes.

Background:​

In the 2003 AFC Championship Game, the Colts lost to the New England Patriots, and there was widespread criticism that New England's defensive backs were being overly physical with Indianapolis receivers — especially beyond the five-yard contact zone — without drawing penalties. Colts' GM Bill Polian was vocal about this after the game.

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The Key Rule Focus:​

Illegal Contact (Rule 8, Section 4, Article 1):
Defenders are allowed to make contact with a receiver within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Beyond five yards, any significant contact that impedes the receiver's route is a penalty.

• This rule already existed before 2004.
• The issue was inconsistent enforcement.

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What the Colts Pushed For:​

The Colts (especially Polian) lobbied the NFL Competition Committee to ensure that:

• Defensive backs could not impede receivers beyond five yards.
• Officials would consistently call illegal contact, holding, and pass interference, especially downfield.

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The Result:​

In 2004, the NFL emphasized enforcement of these rules:

• Officials were instructed to strictly enforce illegal contact, defensive holding, and pass interference.
• This led to a noticeable increase in penalties early in the 2004 season.

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Impact:​

• Offenses benefited league-wide, not just the Colts.
• It contributed to the offensive explosion of the mid-2000s.
• Peyton Manning threw a then-record 49 touchdown passes in 2004.

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Summary:​

The Colts didn't push for new rules in 2004, but rather for the stricter enforcement of existing rules, particularly illegal contact beyond five yards. This led to a significant shift in how the passing game was played and officiated, favoring receivers and quarterbacks — a trend that continues to this day.

FootballDad said:

How totally 1980's! Polian really needs to get with the program. #1 quality is the ability to do exciting runs with the football, and second to be able to quickly hit your first read. If that can be done, the Heisman is in the bag and the #1 overall pick follows shortly. Of course having an abundance of melanin is extremely helpful as it gets the media and all of the draft pundits behind you too.

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Great post, FD. Actually very accurate and a great summary of what this thread is all about. Also, it's everything I saw tonight from Atlanta's QB, particularly hitting his first read. Couple that with the fact that NFL quarterbacks have radios in their helmets for one way communication with coaches. That's changed the position radically. More than most can even comprehend. Therefore, all QB's have more of an advantage with coaches whispering plays in their ears. But, more-so, even much less cerebral QB's can excel this era.

Leo, great info. There is no doubt rules changes over the decades have made it easier for quarterbacks, and offenses in general, to dominate. When I was looking up QB's from the 1970's last week (eye color post), I noticed even the top QB's in that era rarely threw 20 TD's per season. For example, I actually, for the first time, looked at Bart Starr's stats from the great 1960's Packers teams. They'd be laughed at today. Same with the completion percentage numbers of the top QB's. Joe Namath's completion percentage's would relegate him to the CFL in this era. Doesn't mean they were not legends, just playing QB was so much tougher.

Also, Polian had a special offensive team then. Peyton was the ultimate franchise QB and the talent around him was abundant. Marvin Harrison, his boyhood buddy Brandon Stokely from NOLA, Iowa's Dallas Clark might've been the best receiving TE of his era! James at tailback. Only way Bill B's defense could stop them was to get physical.

At the same time, Tom Brady had no where near the talent on offense in the early 2000's. TE's were okay, but nothing great? Best receiver was Deion Branch, then David Givens, ect. Pat's didn't upgrade their offensive talent significantly until latter in the decade -- Randy Moss, Wes Welker. Eventually Rob Gronkowski at TE, Julian Edleman, ect.

Truthteller said:

Leo, back around 2009 or 210, Mel Kiper was droning on about quarterbacks that had a sudden drop in "draft stock". He used ex-Kentucky Wildcat Andre Woodson, Giants 6th round pick by black GM Jerry Reese, as an example. Right there, ex-NFL Pro Bowl quarterback Ron Jaworski stepped up and challenged Kiper. Got so intense, that the usually even-keeled Kiper started to glare at Jaws and was left speechless!

Jaws said something like this to Kiper: Woodson was never a first rounder, not even close, so he never dropped. You guys (Kiper, McShay, F. Yates, M. Greenberg, ect?) can make all the predictions and guesses you want, but your rankings mean absolutely nothing. We only start to get a clear picture when actual "NFL coaches get involved" months prior to the draft .

Here's some 2024 direct quotes from legendary, ex-NFL GM Bill Polian that are similar to Jaworski's chiding of Kiper and all the other "draft experts". Might provide some insight into why all of these black Heisman winners or finalist's (Cam Ward) are suddenly being automatically pushed to the Top 5 of the draft by the Sports Media Industrial Complex.

Hall of Famer Bill Polian rants about the NFL’s problem with evaluating quarterbacks

Hall of Fame general manager Bill Polian knows a thing or two about the drafting process in the NFL and even though he hasn’t been deep in a war room since 2011 with the Indianapolis Colts, he has strong opinions about the way things are currently in the NFL, especially…

cardswire.usatoday.com

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Very informative information TT. Thanks. I really like how Polian describes the evaluation process. It’s becoming obvious that almost zero “draft experts” even try to look through this lense and the majority of modern GMs / coaches are clueless to this approach as well.

Thanks, FT.

One has to wonder how much affect these "draft experts" have on clowns that own teams, but have never played the game? I'm sure when it gets close to draft time they are glued to ESPN and Fox Sports, ect. and, perhaps, taking advice from these Faux experts.

Remember when Frank Reich was the head coach of Carolina and did not want to pick Bryce Young near the top of the draft? Yet the far-left tool (frequent MSNBC guest) that owns team insisted they pay a steep price to move up to draft the "generational talent" #1 overall? Wonder how much the Kiper's, McShay's, Field Yates and "Golic and Greenberg's" had on that decision? My guess is quite a bit!

We are told Mel Kiper is a brilliant talent evaluator, but he claimed Bryce Young would be the "Steph Curry of the NFL". He also claimed Sheduer Sanders should've gone 2nd or 3rd overall and Jalen Milroe was worthy of a top pick, at one point? So if fans are listening to them, why not fools that own teams?

Another problem men like Bill Polian have, is these Faux scouts are drawing out underclassmen that should be staying in school. How many prospects (mostly black) leave early because the "draft experts" claim they are sure-fire first round picks, but then wind up going late in the draft or undrafted?

This is an even bigger problem in the NBA. Did Liam McNeely, for example, do himself any favors by buying into the hype and leaving early for NBA? He might be glued to the bench in Carolina, as a rookie. Had he stayed another year in college, perhaps he leads his team to a national title, then goes top 10 and starts from day 1 in the NBA.

Even with seniors being over-sold, NFL scouts and execs are livid with the Kiper's of the world. A player scouts directly blamed the TV and Net experts for wildly over-hyping and creating unreasonable expectations was former Washington QB Jake Locker.

It's been said that Locker lost between $30 million and $50 million by going back to Washington for a senior year. The reality is that Locker never would have seen that kind of money, because he never would have been the first pick in 2010. The flaws that are apparent in his game today—inaccuracy, lack of pocket presence and inexperience with read progressions—were there a year ago. It's just that NFL personnel people had yet to put him under a microscope.

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Truthteller said:

Thanks, FT.

One has to wonder how much affect these "draft experts" have on clowns that own teams, but have never played the game? I'm sure when it gets close to draft time they are glued to ESPN and Fox Sports, ect. and, perhaps, taking advice from these Faux experts.

Remember when Frank Reich was the head coach of Carolina and did not want to pick Bryce Young near the top of the draft? Yet the far-left tool (frequent MSNBC guest) that owns team insisted they pay a steep price to move up to draft the "generational talent" #1 overall? Wonder how much the Kiper's, McShay's, Field Yates and "Golic and Greenberg's" had on that decision? My guess is quite a bit!

We are told Mel Kiper is a brilliant talent evaluator, but he claimed Bryce Young would be the "Steph Curry of the NFL". He also claimed Sheduer Sanders should've gone 2nd or 3rd overall and Jalen Milroe was worthy of a top pick, at one point? So if fans are listening to them, why not fools that own teams?

Another problem men like Bill Polian have, is these Faux scouts are drawing out underclassmen that should be staying in school. How many prospects (mostly black) leave early because the "draft experts" claim they are sure-fire first round picks, but then wind up going late in the draft or undrafted?

This is an even bigger problem in the NBA. Did Liam McNeely, for example, do himself any favors by buying into the hype and leaving early for NBA? He might be glued to the bench in Carolina, as a rookie. Had he stayed another year in college, perhaps he leads his team to a national title, then goes top 10 and starts from day 1 in the NBA.

Even with seniors being over-sold, NFL scouts and execs are livid with the Kiper's of the world. A player scouts directly blamed the TV and Net experts for wildly over-hyping and creating unreasonable expectations was former Washington QB Jake Locker.

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Great post! Todd McShay's false reports about Jevan Snead led him to declare early, go undrafted and eventually took his own life (supposedly CTE related). The no nothing experts are ingrained into the sport and evaluation process now and have been for at least the past 20 years. Kiper being the figurehead for the draft industrial complex.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/todd-mcshay-backlash-builds

Twenty-Two, that's amazing. One has to wonder what to make of that? Every knows rookie QB's struggle, but that's just odd. Knew all were fired; did not remember all were fired that quick!

Last 3 were canned because they were forced to start QB's (Day 1) that were not even close to being #1 overall caliber. And the Heisman Hype, couple with the Draft Industrial Complex hype (ESPN led the way), caused unreasonable expectations. Young, in particular, was probably a 4th to 7th round prospect, just 15 years ago ... perhaps even 10 years? Cam Ward, supposedly, got a 3rd projection from the NFL Draft Advisory Committee after his junior at Washington State, then rockets all the way to unanimous #1 overall by his 3rd start at Miami?

Superturd lost the Jaguars job, but that cant be stuck on Trevor. Trevor was a legit #1 overall. Turd was a horrible fit from the start and was mostly canned due to humiliating off-field issues. He had a lot of problems, but two were real bad: One, he caused a huge stir when he physically abused his kicker (or punter?), which caused a severe back lash by the players associations. Then all the Jags players basically turned against him, taking the side of a kicker? The "last straw" was during the Jags bye week when he went back to Columbus (I think?) and was getting lap dances from college girls who were like 1/3 his age

Only a turd like Schefter would try to blame Trevor Lawrence for Urban Blight losing his job.