All 32 NFL Teams Ranked from Luckiest to Unluckiest

Gator Dad

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I thought it would be interesting to do a statistics-based ranking of which NFL teams are the most and least lucky. I took each team's win-loss differential and compared it to their point differential (points per game scored minus points per game allowed) to create a single "luck score" for each team. These are the results (as of the conclusion of Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season):

W/L = win/loss differential
PPG = points per game scored
PA = points allowed per game
PD = point differential

1. Kansas City Chiefs +11 W/L 23.69 PPG 19.38 PA +4.31 PD +6.69 lucky
2. Carolina Panthers -7 W/L 17.92 PPG 29.85 PA -11.93 PD +4.93 lucky
3. Dallas Cowboys -3 W/L 20.62 PPG 28.15 PA -7.53 PD +4.53 lucky
4. Los Angeles Rams +1 W/L 22.92 PPG 25.54 PA -2.62 PD +3.62 lucky
5. Atlanta Falcons -1 W/L 21.38 PPG 25.62 PA -4.24 PD +3.24 lucky
6. Tennessee Titans -7 W/L 17.46 PPG 26.31 PA -8.85 PD +1.85 lucky
7. Seattle Seahawks +3 W/L 23.23 PPG 21.77 PA +1.46 PD +1.54 lucky
8. Houston Texans +3 W/L 23.69 PPG 22.15 PA +1.54 PD +1.46 lucky
9. Indianapolis Colts -1 W/L 20.54 PPG 22.92 PA -2.38 PD +1.38 lucky
10. Minnesota Vikings +9 W/L 26.08 PPG 18.46 PA +7.62 PD +1.38 lucky
11. Jacksonville Jaguars -7 W/L 18.31 PPG 26.54 PA -8.23 PD +1.23 lucky
12. Miami Dolphins -1 W/L 20.31 PPG 22.46 PA -2.15 PD +1.15 lucky
13. Cleveland Browns -7 W/L 17.85 PPG 25.77 PA -7.92 PD +0.92 lucky
14. Philadelphia Eagles +9 W/L 26.31 PPG 18.00 PA +8.31 PD +0.69 lucky
15. Las Vegas Raiders -9 W/L 18.15 PPG 27.77 PA -9.62 PD +0.62 lucky
16. Pittsburgh Steelers +7 W/L 24.85 PPG 18.31 PA +6.54 PD +0.46 lucky
17. New England Patriots -7 W/L 17.00 PPG 23.62 PA -6.62 PD -0.38 unlucky
18. Arizona Cardinals -1 W/L 21.85 PPG 22.23 PA -0.38 PD -0.62 unlucky
19. Green Bay Packers +5 W/L 26.85 PPG 21.08 PA +5.77 PD -0.77 unlucky
20. San Francisco 49ers -1 W/L 23.69 PPG 23.69 PA 0.00 PD -1.00 unlucky
21. New York Giants -9 W/L 14.92 PPG 22.54 PA -7.62 PD -1.38 unlucky
22. Baltimore Ravens +3 W/L 29.46 PPG 24.46 PA +5.00 PD -2.00 unlucky
23. Los Angeles Chargers +3 W/L 21.31 PPG 15.92 PA +5.39 PD -2.39 unlucky
24. Denver Broncos +3 W/L 23.46 PPG 18.00 PA +5.46 PD -2.46 unlucky
25. New Orleans Saints -3 W/L 22.31 PPG 22.46 PA -0.15 PD -2.85 unlucky
26. Buffalo Bills +7 W/L 30.54 PPG 20.62 PA +9.92 PD -2.92 unlucky
27. Detroit Lions +11 W/L 32.08 PPG 18.00 PA +14.08 PD -3.08 unlucky
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 W/L 27.92 PPG 23.77 PA +4.15 PD -3.15 unlucky
29. Washington Commanders +3 W/L 28.92 PPG 22.77 PA +6.15 PD -3.15 unlucky
30. Chicago Bears -5 W/L 19.54 PPG 21.38 PA -1.84 PD -3.16 unlucky
31. Cincinnati Bengals -3 W/L 27.85 PPG 27.69 PA +0.16 PD -3.16 unlucky
32. New York Jets -7 W/L 19.31 PPG 23.08 PA -3.77 PD -3.23 unlucky
 
Appreciate the number crunching! Interesting to see, even if it’s hard to draw any conclusions.

Looking at the Chiefs, we all know they win a lot of close games. I think it’s a combo of good coaching and veteran players making “clutch” plays and decisions. There is also the component of refs giving them some favorable calls. The question to me is have they “earned” the benefit of the doubt as the premier team post-Tom Brady teams?

On the flip side, the Jets find a way to lose every week and the local media has been keen to point this out. I haven’t heard a lot of rumblings that the Jets get screwed by bad calls. Seems like the Chiefs mirror inverse, as the Jets have terrible coaching and Vets who should know better but don’t. Last week I believe it was Adams who botched a time management decision.
 
The panthers 3-10 and cowboys 5-8 are the second and third luckiest teams lmao. They must really suck!
 
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