I thought it would be interesting to do a statistics-based ranking of which NFL teams are the most and least lucky. I took each team's win-loss differential and compared it to their point differential (points per game scored minus points per game allowed) to create a single "luck score" for each team. These are the results (as of the conclusion of Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season):
W/L = win/loss differential
PPG = points per game scored
PA = points allowed per game
PD = point differential
1. Kansas City Chiefs +11 W/L 23.69 PPG 19.38 PA +4.31 PD +6.69 lucky
2. Carolina Panthers -7 W/L 17.92 PPG 29.85 PA -11.93 PD +4.93 lucky
3. Dallas Cowboys -3 W/L 20.62 PPG 28.15 PA -7.53 PD +4.53 lucky
4. Los Angeles Rams +1 W/L 22.92 PPG 25.54 PA -2.62 PD +3.62 lucky
5. Atlanta Falcons -1 W/L 21.38 PPG 25.62 PA -4.24 PD +3.24 lucky
6. Tennessee Titans -7 W/L 17.46 PPG 26.31 PA -8.85 PD +1.85 lucky
7. Seattle Seahawks +3 W/L 23.23 PPG 21.77 PA +1.46 PD +1.54 lucky
8. Houston Texans +3 W/L 23.69 PPG 22.15 PA +1.54 PD +1.46 lucky
9. Indianapolis Colts -1 W/L 20.54 PPG 22.92 PA -2.38 PD +1.38 lucky
10. Minnesota Vikings +9 W/L 26.08 PPG 18.46 PA +7.62 PD +1.38 lucky
11. Jacksonville Jaguars -7 W/L 18.31 PPG 26.54 PA -8.23 PD +1.23 lucky
12. Miami Dolphins -1 W/L 20.31 PPG 22.46 PA -2.15 PD +1.15 lucky
13. Cleveland Browns -7 W/L 17.85 PPG 25.77 PA -7.92 PD +0.92 lucky
14. Philadelphia Eagles +9 W/L 26.31 PPG 18.00 PA +8.31 PD +0.69 lucky
15. Las Vegas Raiders -9 W/L 18.15 PPG 27.77 PA -9.62 PD +0.62 lucky
16. Pittsburgh Steelers +7 W/L 24.85 PPG 18.31 PA +6.54 PD +0.46 lucky
17. New England Patriots -7 W/L 17.00 PPG 23.62 PA -6.62 PD -0.38 unlucky
18. Arizona Cardinals -1 W/L 21.85 PPG 22.23 PA -0.38 PD -0.62 unlucky
19. Green Bay Packers +5 W/L 26.85 PPG 21.08 PA +5.77 PD -0.77 unlucky
20. San Francisco 49ers -1 W/L 23.69 PPG 23.69 PA 0.00 PD -1.00 unlucky
21. New York Giants -9 W/L 14.92 PPG 22.54 PA -7.62 PD -1.38 unlucky
22. Baltimore Ravens +3 W/L 29.46 PPG 24.46 PA +5.00 PD -2.00 unlucky
23. Los Angeles Chargers +3 W/L 21.31 PPG 15.92 PA +5.39 PD -2.39 unlucky
24. Denver Broncos +3 W/L 23.46 PPG 18.00 PA +5.46 PD -2.46 unlucky
25. New Orleans Saints -3 W/L 22.31 PPG 22.46 PA -0.15 PD -2.85 unlucky
26. Buffalo Bills +7 W/L 30.54 PPG 20.62 PA +9.92 PD -2.92 unlucky
27. Detroit Lions +11 W/L 32.08 PPG 18.00 PA +14.08 PD -3.08 unlucky
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 W/L 27.92 PPG 23.77 PA +4.15 PD -3.15 unlucky
29. Washington Commanders +3 W/L 28.92 PPG 22.77 PA +6.15 PD -3.15 unlucky
30. Chicago Bears -5 W/L 19.54 PPG 21.38 PA -1.84 PD -3.16 unlucky
31. Cincinnati Bengals -3 W/L 27.85 PPG 27.69 PA +0.16 PD -3.16 unlucky
32. New York Jets -7 W/L 19.31 PPG 23.08 PA -3.77 PD -3.23 unlucky
W/L = win/loss differential
PPG = points per game scored
PA = points allowed per game
PD = point differential
1. Kansas City Chiefs +11 W/L 23.69 PPG 19.38 PA +4.31 PD +6.69 lucky
2. Carolina Panthers -7 W/L 17.92 PPG 29.85 PA -11.93 PD +4.93 lucky
3. Dallas Cowboys -3 W/L 20.62 PPG 28.15 PA -7.53 PD +4.53 lucky
4. Los Angeles Rams +1 W/L 22.92 PPG 25.54 PA -2.62 PD +3.62 lucky
5. Atlanta Falcons -1 W/L 21.38 PPG 25.62 PA -4.24 PD +3.24 lucky
6. Tennessee Titans -7 W/L 17.46 PPG 26.31 PA -8.85 PD +1.85 lucky
7. Seattle Seahawks +3 W/L 23.23 PPG 21.77 PA +1.46 PD +1.54 lucky
8. Houston Texans +3 W/L 23.69 PPG 22.15 PA +1.54 PD +1.46 lucky
9. Indianapolis Colts -1 W/L 20.54 PPG 22.92 PA -2.38 PD +1.38 lucky
10. Minnesota Vikings +9 W/L 26.08 PPG 18.46 PA +7.62 PD +1.38 lucky
11. Jacksonville Jaguars -7 W/L 18.31 PPG 26.54 PA -8.23 PD +1.23 lucky
12. Miami Dolphins -1 W/L 20.31 PPG 22.46 PA -2.15 PD +1.15 lucky
13. Cleveland Browns -7 W/L 17.85 PPG 25.77 PA -7.92 PD +0.92 lucky
14. Philadelphia Eagles +9 W/L 26.31 PPG 18.00 PA +8.31 PD +0.69 lucky
15. Las Vegas Raiders -9 W/L 18.15 PPG 27.77 PA -9.62 PD +0.62 lucky
16. Pittsburgh Steelers +7 W/L 24.85 PPG 18.31 PA +6.54 PD +0.46 lucky
17. New England Patriots -7 W/L 17.00 PPG 23.62 PA -6.62 PD -0.38 unlucky
18. Arizona Cardinals -1 W/L 21.85 PPG 22.23 PA -0.38 PD -0.62 unlucky
19. Green Bay Packers +5 W/L 26.85 PPG 21.08 PA +5.77 PD -0.77 unlucky
20. San Francisco 49ers -1 W/L 23.69 PPG 23.69 PA 0.00 PD -1.00 unlucky
21. New York Giants -9 W/L 14.92 PPG 22.54 PA -7.62 PD -1.38 unlucky
22. Baltimore Ravens +3 W/L 29.46 PPG 24.46 PA +5.00 PD -2.00 unlucky
23. Los Angeles Chargers +3 W/L 21.31 PPG 15.92 PA +5.39 PD -2.39 unlucky
24. Denver Broncos +3 W/L 23.46 PPG 18.00 PA +5.46 PD -2.46 unlucky
25. New Orleans Saints -3 W/L 22.31 PPG 22.46 PA -0.15 PD -2.85 unlucky
26. Buffalo Bills +7 W/L 30.54 PPG 20.62 PA +9.92 PD -2.92 unlucky
27. Detroit Lions +11 W/L 32.08 PPG 18.00 PA +14.08 PD -3.08 unlucky
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 W/L 27.92 PPG 23.77 PA +4.15 PD -3.15 unlucky
29. Washington Commanders +3 W/L 28.92 PPG 22.77 PA +6.15 PD -3.15 unlucky
30. Chicago Bears -5 W/L 19.54 PPG 21.38 PA -1.84 PD -3.16 unlucky
31. Cincinnati Bengals -3 W/L 27.85 PPG 27.69 PA +0.16 PD -3.16 unlucky
32. New York Jets -7 W/L 19.31 PPG 23.08 PA -3.77 PD -3.23 unlucky