The Worst Receiver since 1999

Discussion in 'Indianapolis Colts' started by McGuffie, Nov 21, 2010.

  1. McGuffie

    McGuffie Newbie

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  2. Don Wassall

    Don Wassall Administrator Staff Member

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    Nice find. Here's the article. Unfortunately the writer engages in some embarrassing White guilt gag-inducing happy talk nonsense near the end rather than pointing out the obvious -- Garcon needs to be replaced if the Colts want to maximize their chances of making the playoffs this season. The Colts should be starting Austin Collie alongside Reggie Wayne and using Blair White in the slot, or vice versa -- Collie in the slot and White on the outside.

    There are comments after the article.


    <DIV ="line">
    <H1 ="title">The Worst Colt Wide Receiver Since 1999 (UPDATED) </H1>
    <H1 ="title"></H1>
    <H1 ="title">Written by Nate Dunlevy | 16 November 2010 </H1>
    <H1 ="title">Just how bad has Pierre Garcon played this season?</H1>


    He is probably having the single worst season of any wide receiver since 1999 for the Colts.


    There aren't a lot of 'bad' seasons by Colts receivers. Most guys who come to Indy post great numbers. To pick out the real bad ones, I selected the WRs who posted a negative DVOA for the season with the Colts since 1999. There were only 15 player seasons that qualified. Of those 15, 7 of them were targeted 22 or fewer times on the season. That takes guys like Aaron Morehead (made the list four times), Aromashadu, and Hank Baskett out of play. Here are the 8 contenders for single worst season by a Colt wideout (stats are explained below):

    <TABLE><T><T><T>
    <T>
    <TR>
    <TD>
    </TD>
    <TD>Catches</TD>
    <TD>Yards</TD>
    <TD>TD</TD>
    <TD>Targets</TD>
    <TD>Catch rate</TD>
    <TD>DYAR</TD>
    <TD>DVOA</TD>
    <TD>EYAR</TD></TR>
    <TR>
    <TD>1999 Pathon</TD>
    <TD>14</TD>
    <TD>163</TD>
    <TD>0</TD>
    <TD>33</TD>
    <TD>42%</TD>
    <TD>-72</TD>
    <TD>-41.6</TD>
    <TD>97</TD></TR>
    <TR>
    <TD>1999 Green</TD>
    <TD>21</TD>
    <TD>287</TD>
    <TD>0</TD>
    <TD>44</TD>
    <TD>42%</TD>
    <TD>-9</TD>
    <TD>-15.4%</TD>
    <TD>262</TD></TR>
    <TR>
    <TD>2001 Wilkins</TD>
    <TD>34</TD>
    <TD>332</TD>
    <TD>0</TD>
    <TD>56</TD>
    <TD>61%</TD>
    <TD>19</TD>
    <TD>-8.2%</TD>
    <TD>381</TD></TR>
    <TR>
    <TD>2001 Wayne</TD>
    <TD>27</TD>
    <TD>345</TD>
    <TD>0</TD>
    <TD>49</TD>
    <TD>55%</TD>
    <TD>6</TD>
    <TD>-11%</TD>
    <TD>322</TD></TR>
    <TR>
    <TD>2002 Ismail</TD>
    <TD>44
    </TD>
    <TD>462
    </TD>
    <TD>3
    </TD>
    <TD>84
    </TD>
    <TD>52%
    </TD>
    <TD>-32
    </TD>
    <TD>-17.4%
    </TD>
    <TD>495
    </TD></TR>
    <TR>
    <TD>2008 Harrison</TD>
    <TD>60
    </TD>
    <TD>636
    </TD>
    <TD>5
    </TD>
    <TD>107
    </TD>
    <TD>56%
    </TD>
    <TD>31
    </TD>
    <TD>-9.2%
    </TD>
    <TD>763
    </TD></TR>
    <TR>
    <TD>2009 Garcon</TD>
    <TD>47
    </TD>
    <TD>765
    </TD>
    <TD>4
    </TD>
    <TD>91
    </TD>
    <TD>52%
    </TD>
    <TD>92
    </TD>
    <TD>-0.4%
    </TD>
    <TD>742
    </TD></TR>
    <TR>
    <TD>2010 Garcon</TD>
    <TD>28
    </TD>
    <TD>344
    </TD>
    <TD>1
    </TD>
    <TD>60
    </TD>
    <TD>47%
    </TD>
    <TD>-75
    </TD>
    <TD>-28.7%
    </TD>
    <TD>271
    </TD></TR></T></T></T></T></TABLE>


    The Stats:


    Catch rate: Easy enough. It's the percent of times a player catches the ball when it's thrown to him. Targets are number of times he's thrown the ball.


    DYAR: Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. How many more or less yards a player gained on the season than the league average player would.


    DVOA: Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average. On a per play basis, what percent better or worse is a player than the league average.


    EYAR: Effective yards. Compare the EYAR to the Yards. If EYAR is higher, the player was a little better than standard stats indicate. If they are lower, he was a little worse.


    Right off the bat, we can trim the list. 2009 Garcon was basically just average, not awful. 2001 Wayne and 2001 Wilkins (who had several very solid years) were like-wise not awful.


    2008 Marvin Harrison ate up a BUNCH of targets, but he wasn't terrible, just bad. He still had a positive DYAR and EYAR indicates he was a little better than his numbers imply. 1999 EG Green was bad, but Pathon was worse the same year, so he's out.


    That means without question the three worst WR seasons for the Colts since 1999 are:


    1999 Jermone Pathon, 2002 Qadry Ismail, and 2010 Pierre Garcon.


    Cumulatively speaking, Garcon is there. His DYAR is already the worst on the list. His catch rate is worse than Ismail's, and his EYAR implies he's even worse than his conventional numbers show. The only player with a worse DVOA than Garcon is 1999 Pathon, but Garcon has already been targeted almost twice as often in just half the season.


    Make no mistake: Garcon is not "struggling". He is having a historically terrible season. This isn't 'growing pains', it's a cataclysm.


    The Colts have to get more production from Garcon. He is a wonderful young man. Every Colts fan is rooting hard for him. There won't be any calls to bench him, simply because there is no one else to play. The good news is that Pathon went on to have some positive seasons in Indianapolis. There is still time for Garcon to turn this around.


    If he just plays average over the final 8 weeks, we should see an immediate improvement from the offense.


    Garcon started slow last year and finished strong, so he has the capability.


    He doesn't have to be great.


    He just can't be among the worst wideouts in the game.


    UPDATE: Aaron Schatz of the Outsiders passed along this note:
    He's 4-of-14 on third down. Five of those incompletes are passes of 2-7 yards, not deep passes. Astounding.
    http://18to88.com/2010-archives/november/the-worst-wideouts.html
    Edited by: Don Wassall
     
  3. Thrashen

    Thrashen Hall of Famer

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    There's no denying that Pierre "The Dunce"Â￾ Garcon has some physical talents such as above average leaping ability and somewhat decent speed. He's also good after the catch (the "catch"Â￾ being the tricky part).

    Austin Collie is better than Garcon in every tangible and intangible way. Blair White has similar size and speed to Garcon, but, obviously, he can actually catch a football and run proper routes.

    Garcon is far from the worst in terms of both production and ability. Consider "starters"Â￾ like Brian Robiskie or Darius Hayward-Bey.Edited by: Thrashen
     
  4. Don Wassall

    Don Wassall Administrator Staff Member

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    Both BSPN and the NFL Network showed a meaningless 10 yard catch by Garcon as part of their highlight package of the Colts-Patriots game, undoubtedly to bolster the flagging doubts DWFs may have about the young "Frenchman." Garcon's poor route running and bad hands were never mentioned as a factor in the Colts loss, which was put completely on Peyton Manning. Edited by: Don Wassall
     
  5. whiteCB

    whiteCB Master

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    I really as if Manning is on edge with Garcon. Peyton is a class act professional and expects the men he throws passes to to be the same. Garcon is not living up to expectations and it pisses Manning off. Everyone knows Manning is the real coach on that team and it wouldn't surprise me the least bit to see a definite increase in productive players i.e. Blair & Tamme to continue to get more looks than Pierre. White's playing time will only go up and Pierre's will suffer as a result.
     
  6. bigunreal

    bigunreal Mentor

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    The question is; why does Peyton Manning continue to force feed Garcon so many targets every game? He looks like he's upset about Garcon's atrocious performance, so why does he keep peppering him with passes?

    We've been told repeatedly that Manning runs the Colts' offense, and in fact calls all the plays. So....if he really was frustrated with this horrific affirmative action project, why would he give him so many chances to keep screwing up? If you watch the Colts' games, you will see that the majority of Manning's interceptions (and poor throws) are the result of passes to this clownish WR, who either has run the wrong route and simply isn't open.

    Anyone with a Pop Warner-league knowledge of the game would have relegated Garcon to returning kicks a long time ago. The fact that he continues to start, often singlehandedly stalling a great offense, over first Gonzalez (former #1 pick), then burgeoning star Collie and now the far more impressive White is a textbook example of the Caste System in all its glory, and yet another reminder that the coaches absolutely don't play the best players. Edited by: bigunreal
     
  7. Bart

    Bart Hall of Famer

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    Potential! Collie and White have have demonstrated great ability, but they are at their natural limits. AFFLETES have unlimited upside. [​IMG]
     
  8. Anak

    Anak Mentor

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    That's what I'd like to know, considering Manning's offense is suppose to be a precise machine and constant dropped balls and wrong routes isn't too terribly efficient, now is it? There is absolutely no reason why Garcon should play over Blair White, yet he's ahead of Collie and Gonzo(when healthy) on the depth chart as well. Insanity.

    Of course the Dumb Wigger Fans are enamored by Mr. Garcon because of his occasional circus grabs, which to them seem to overshadow the fact that he's a terrible receiver that is stalling the Colts' offense(as if they even noticed).Edited by: Anak
     
  9. backrow

    backrow Hall of Famer

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    from rotoworld, at least they are rightly summing it up.

    Peyton Manning said the two plays in Week 11 where Pierre Garcon went one way and Manning's pass went another were his fault.

    "That's just accurate. That's what happened," Manning said. "I do that, make mistakes. He was right." We have a hunch that Manning is just being a good teammate here and covering for Garcon, as the receiver has been known to make plenty of mistakes, while Manning obviously is not. Garcon isn't trustworthy as a fantasy option right now even with Austin Collie out.
    Source: Indianapolis Star
    Related: Peyton Manning
     
  10. TorontoArgos

    TorontoArgos Guru

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    I have been saying it for months. I never even played or coached football and I could still see it.

    On a field of 22 players, all moving together at the same time at high speeds, it should NEVER be easy so to pick out one player who simply doesn't belong on the field with the rest.

    When announcers and DWFs single players out, they usually pick on the White guy because they "stand out" and look "out of place." Pierre Garcon, despite "blending in" with the demographics of his position, is one player who consistently "looks out of place". He just doesn't belong on an NFL field.

    This isn't an attack on his character, which I'm sure is flawless. He just doesn't belong in the NFL because his talent (not to mention accomplishments) simply does not merit it.

    Yet, the Colts seem to be trying to "make a star out of him." This is like trying to put lipstick on a pig. They force feed him the ball so he can make a few catches and accumulate a few stats (despite all the drops), and almost seem to be WILLING him to be a better player than he is. Just face it Colts' he ain't that good. The stats are backing it up. You just can't buy into the hype.

    If I (who has never played a snap of organized football in my life) could recognize it very easily, then there is no way NFL coaches cannot see it. Or can they??Edited by: TorontoArgos
     
  11. TorontoArgos

    TorontoArgos Guru

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    Almost sounds like sarcasm in Peyton's voice. [​IMG]
     
  12. Patrick

    Patrick Guru

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    To compare DYAR for Collie and Garcon - Collie is 174, Garcon is -75. DVOA for Collie is 22% while Garcons is -28.7%.

    Whites numbers are something like 31 DYAR and 3.9% DVOA which aren't super impressive, but when you consider Garcon is playing like someone who would be better suited for a soccer career they don't look so bad.

    The 174 DYAR puts Collie at #10 in the league based on minimum 35 pass receptions.

    Sorry - I took Garcons DYAR of -75 from the above article - he's now at -88 which means since the article about how he was the worst WR since 1999 for the Colts, he's actually done even worse than he had been doing.Edited by: Patrick
     
  13. Patrick

    Patrick Guru

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    Also if you look at the top 15 WRs 35 catch minimum as ranked by DYAR by Footballoutsiders you'll see that Collie has an amazing 81% catch rate - in the top 15 as ranked by DYAR the next closest is 71% catch rate and one at 70% catch rate - none of the other top 15 are above 70%.
     
  14. Guest

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    The Caste system ought to be generating sarcasm from the likes of Manning when the caste whores insist on pinning the play of a retard on him.
     
  15. Don Wassall

    Don Wassall Administrator Staff Member

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    If Garcon was the only White receiver on the Colts and was kept as one of the starting outside receivers in spite of how bad he is, we know where the unquenchable wrath of the media and DWFs would be directed.



    BTW, has anyone else noticed how slow Reggie Wayne is these days? He just turned 32 and I don't see him lasting as an effective receiver much longer. Donald Driver and Derrick Mason are rare exceptions to the rule that black football players decline noticeably in their late 20s and early 30s.

    The Colts should be going with Collie, White and Clark as their three main receiving threats in 2011, but there's not a snowball's chance in hell of that happening.
     
  16. Patrick

    Patrick Guru

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    Jemele Hill wrote an article suggesting that black QBs have to do at least twice as good as their white counterparts in order to keep their jobs because of racism.

    Could the same be said that whites WRs have to do at least twice as good as their black counterparts in order to keep their jobs because of racism?

    Nah, it'd be racist to suggest that.
     
  17. GiovaniMarcon

    GiovaniMarcon Mentor

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    Why hasn't this Garcon guy been benched? If Indianapolis is so bent on having a spooklete as their main receiver, surely there are many who are at least better than this butterflingers? And... can at least arrive in the approximate direction of the ball?
     
  18. FootballDad

    FootballDad Hall of Famer

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    Garcon is not just an afflete with "unlimited upside". He's also a "feel good story" having risen to the ranks of the NFL from a Division III school where he was maybe the second-best player on the team. Besides that, he will make an occasional phenomenal catch which is good for air time on BSPN, and makes DWF's forgive him for the dozen or so drops that preceded it.
     
  19. TorontoArgos

    TorontoArgos Guru

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    NFL coaches have learned by now that you can't just "bench" a black starter for bad play. Especially if the replacement happens to be white.

    In most cases the player will publicly complain (at the very least), and his teammates will come to his defense which could create drama in the locker room. In more extreme cases the player will quit on the team, which might not be bad for the Colts in Garcon's case, but it would surely create rifts in the locker room if the beloved Pierre Garcon were benched in favour of Blair White, a rookie, undrafted, paleface.

    My guess is Garcon will be released after this season or be given a severely reduced role next season. But nothing is for sure in the Caste NFL.Edited by: TorontoArgos
     

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