Predict Hillis' 2011 Production

Discussion in 'Cleveland Browns' started by ToughJ.Riggins, May 17, 2011.

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How many carries will Peyton get?

  1. 150-200

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  2. 200-225

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  3. 225-250

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  4. 250-275

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  5. 275-300

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  6. 300-325

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  7. More than 325

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  8. Predict his YPC: 3.8 YPC-4.3 YPC

    50.0%
  9. 4.4 YPC-4.9 YPC

    50.0%
  10. 5 YPC+

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. ToughJ.Riggins

    ToughJ.Riggins Hall of Famer

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    We all know that Weenieworld, that Grossi writer and even Holmgren have stated Hillis was overworked in 2010, which I disagree with. Hillis was no more overworked than MJD, who by virtue of the violence of football battled some unlucky lingering injuries toward the end of the 2010 season (as well) and finished with slightly more carries than Hillis.

    I believe there may have been a few "GAMES" where Hillis was a little overworked where he carried the ball around 30 times. The strategy should be to plan to have Hillis carry the ball around 15-24 times every game spread out evenly over the season.

    I'd like to see Hillis get 300-325 carries on the season with around a 5 YPC average, but I predict 275-300 carries at a 4.8 YPC clip with 16 rushing TDs and 5 receiving for a whooping total of 21 TDs!

    What do you guys predict?
    Edited by: ToughJ.Riggins
     
  2. SuperSpeed23

    SuperSpeed23 Guru

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    Id like to see him around 300 carries but i think it will be closer to 250. However i believe hillis has the ability to average 5 ypc if not more.
     
  3. whiteathlete33

    whiteathlete33 Hall of Famer

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    I think the Browns really need to upgrade their offensive line for Hillis to average 5 ypc. Other than Joe Thomas the line is pretty weak. They did draft sumo Pinkston who might be an upgrade.
     
  4. whiteathlete33

    whiteathlete33 Hall of Famer

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    Hopefully they use speedy tight end Cameron Jordan some in the passing game. 4.59 speed in tight ends is quite rare. Evan Moore is probably the best receiver on the team.
     
  5. ToughJ.Riggins

    ToughJ.Riggins Hall of Famer

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    I agree that it would be VERY tough for any back including Chris Johnson, Jamal Charles and AP to average 5 YPC as the tailback for the Browns in the current situation in the AFC North. The right side of the line needs to be greatly improved. They also need to find at least one viable receiving option out of their WRs (other than Hillis and SOLID TEs Ben Watson and Evan Moore- the latter who could legitimately be tried at WR- not one of their receivers stepped up). Hopefully Owen Marecic will be a great lead blocker for Hillis in power formations.Edited by: ToughJ.Riggins
     
  6. ToughJ.Riggins

    ToughJ.Riggins Hall of Famer

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    Yes Jordan Cameron...I forgot about him. I loved seeing his athleticism displayed with Blake Griffin throwing him ally oops. Even more impressive than his 4.59 40 (for someone his size) was Cameron's 4.03 short shuttle.
     
  7. ToughJ.Riggins

    ToughJ.Riggins Hall of Famer

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    My prediction for Hillis' production in 2011 is as follows:
    Rush: 284-1368-4.8 YPC-16 TDs
    Rec: 52-455-8.8 YPC-5 TDs

    Pro Bowl 2nd Team (should be 1st team, but player and coach voting will put him at 2nd string).
     
  8. Colonel_Reb

    Colonel_Reb Hall of Famer

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    I don't like to write about it, but I think Peyton Hillis will see a somewhat reduced role this season, especially running the ball. I want to be optimistic, but the NFL will have to prove me wrong many times before I approach this differently. I think Hillis may have a shot at another 1000 yard season, but he'll have to really push to get it before the season ends. Still, there are lot of variable that might change the outcome one way or another. Cleveland's offense is going to have to get better all the way around (especially in play calling and blocking) for Peyton to have a better year than last year, imho. I think he'll split carries to start the year and that may or may not last all season. If he only splits carries for the first few games and the team play improves from last year, these numbers might be better. Even with a full 16 game schedule, I'm going to sayhe gets around 1,050 yards on about 220 carries for 4.7ish YPC and 10-12 TDs. Receiving-wise, I have a tough time figuring out what may happen. If he becomes THE RB after 3 weeks, his receiving numbers might be really close to last years. If he doesn't, they will probably be in the 40 receptions range. I hope I'm wrong on these and that Peyton gets a shot to do much more, but I still don't trust his coaches.

    Edited by: Colonel_Reb
     
  9. Westside

    Westside Hall of Famer

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    I think Hillis will get less carries than last year, which is not neccessarly a bad thing. He needed some rest during a couple of those games last year which probably factored into him sustaining those nagging injuries. I predict around 270 to 280 carries. 4.8 ypc and at least a 1200 yard season.
     
  10. whiteathlete33

    whiteathlete33 Hall of Famer

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    Westside, HIllis had 270 carries last season, so your are predicting the same or more. I think it will be around 250 carries this season, still enough to get him 1,000 yards as long as he averages 4ypc which he will.
     
  11. backrow

    backrow Hall of Famer

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    probably between 220 and 250 carries, and i want to say at least 1100 yards with ypc around 4.5 (considering the division). i am hoping for more TDs, 15 rushing. as far as receiving game goes, he may see fewer receptions but as long as he gets the ball enough, i would be fine with that.
     
  12. whiteathlete33

    whiteathlete33 Hall of Famer

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    The Browns should be an improved team this year with the additions of Cameron Jordan and Julio Jones. This should allow his ypc to improve from last year.
     
  13. ToughJ.Riggins

    ToughJ.Riggins Hall of Famer

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    The Falcons got Julio Jones. The Browns traded the 6th pick for multiple draft picks and got Greg Little as a WR in the 2nd round (I hope he pans out). Hopefully they pick up Jeff Maehl as well- and groom him as a their possible starting Flanker or Slot WR.
     
  14. whiteathlete33

    whiteathlete33 Hall of Famer

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    Sorry,, I meant Greg Little. Hopefully this benefits HIllis.
     
  15. snow

    snow Mentor

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    I don't know if Hardesty SHOULD cut into Peyton's carries. I have been watching his college footage. Hes not a speed back like people said he would be, he looks kind of lumbering, he gets caught in the open field pretty much on all of his plays, and this is in college, so he definitely isn't a speed back. His agility isn't that great He reminds me a little bit of Brandon Jacobs if he were 225 pounds a 6 foot. He has good vision and balance, and a good amount of power, but there isn't anything he can do that Peyton can't, except for a spin move which the two instances I saw, weren't needed, Peyton could have found multiple ways to get past those 2 guys. Hardesty is a powerback weighing 25 pounds less than Hillis, and he has a pretty long build, more like a big wide receiver which will leave him more prone to injury which he has had quite a bit in his career. He has had only one good college season, his 100 yard games came against WKU, Ohio, South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. I don't know if people remember but South Carolina wasn't good against the run, and Kentucky was TERRIBLE, pretty much every back had their career day against Kentucky in 09, and of course Vandy isn't good most years. I remember because of arguing whether Ingram faced better competition in the SEC compared to Gerhart. Hardesty had a pretty mediocre day against UCLA with 3 ypc. Tennessee looked to have some good zone blocking plays, which is where he mainly excelled. He won't do that well behind the Cleveland line. Cleveland does use some zone blocking but those holes he had at Tenn will mostly be small creases (if there is something there at all). I was hoping he was a little faster so they could mix it up, line him up in the slot with Hillis at tailback, a few trick plays like a reverse so he can hit the outside. Reading up on Greg Little, he was a rb the first two seasons of college, so I think they have plans to do that with him as well, they seem to be found of running plays like that.

    I can see Hillis getting around the same touches as last year, if they use him right over 5 yards per carry. My guess is they will try to use Hardesty and Hillis as a 1 2 combo but it won't work as well as they hoped. You have to remember last year didn't have double digit carries last year the first two games either. This year probably won't be any different the first few games with splitting carries , Hillis will not be denied though. The problem with last year wasn't just the right side of the line, it was the play calling. Daboli would have a 4 receiver set, knowing good and well that none of those guys were really a threat, out of shotgun, and have Hillis run to the right. If the new staff is smart they will just line up the few threats they have, run more power plays tight end heavy sets, i formation saying, were going to run it this way, try and stop us. They have Joe Thomas, Alex Mack is a great center, and the left guard isn't bad and can hold his own between those two guys, really good in space. They were able to run right a few times, it was just the playcalling that was key. He had a big run against the Bengals and the Patriots td run was to the right as well. The key was lining Vickers up to the right, have Steinbach pull and go to that side. There are a few ways overcome the lack of talent at RG and RT but it can be done. The new coach used to be a offensive line coach before becoming a coordinator so hopefully he can do it.

    Looking at their schedule I changed my prediction a little bit, they get to play the NFC West. The problem last year on top of playing their tough division, crappy right side of the line and bad playcalling, 3 different quarterbacks was that the non division schedule was tough as well. Now they play the 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Raiders, Cardinals, Colts. These should all be big games for him. Last year the cupcake games for the backs in his division were Bucs, where he got less than 10 carries the first game, and Buffalo, where he was slightly injured and it was raining. I expect everyone in the division to have an increase in production, with Hillis at the top for ypc and Ray Rice behind him. The only problem is the last stretch of the season, Ravens and Steelers back to back, then the Cardinals as a breather, then the Ravens and the Steelers back to back again. Hopefully this won't bring his ypc down too much and the Browns have some rhythm going.

    272 carries for 1400 yards 5.1 ypc 13 touchdowns with a long of 55, 40 receptions for 350 yards 2 touchdowns. and I predict he cuts the fumbles down to 3.

    Edited by: snow
     
  16. backrow

    backrow Hall of Famer

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    I'd take 20 TDs and 1100 yards
     
  17. Colonel_Reb

    Colonel_Reb Hall of Famer

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    deadgum, snow! That's a magnum opus.[​IMG]
     
  18. bigunreal

    bigunreal Mentor

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    If Hardesty stays healthy, and shows anything at all, Hillis will have his role decreased, perhaps significantly. I know nothing about Shurmur, but Holmgren's track record with white players doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

    The very fact that the media continues to harp on how "overworked" Hillis was last season, when much smaller and less powerful backs had far more touches, without a similar outcry, tells you the agenda to diminish his impact is firmly in place. Hillis cannot get hurt. Period. Any injury jeopardizes his future role as a RB in the league. He also cannot fumble. A new coaching staff almost certainly will not be as tolerant as Mangini was. Finally, he has to hope that Hardesty shows nothing, because we all know what will happen if he does, even if Hillis continues to shine.

    I wish Peyton only the best, but cannot be that optimistic.
     
  19. whiteathlete33

    whiteathlete33 Hall of Famer

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    Bigunreal, I respect you as a poster but c'mon. Did any of us think that we would finally get a white 1,000 yard back last season? No, and guess what it happened. Also Woodhead got an opportunity to showcase his stuff. We have to look at some of the positives and not always negatives.
     
  20. snow

    snow Mentor

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    As far as Shurmur, we saw the emergence of Amendola with him as an offensive coordinator in 09 and then 2010, even with Gilyard who was supposed to push Amendola back down the depth chart to where weenieworld wanted him. Like I already stated, Hardesty isn't going to show anything special. If you want to look at the downside I think we are looking at 200 carries at the least.

    If you think about it, he was overworked a few games. He didn't even have a guy to come in for a breather. All of those other backs, they did, even if it wasn't a running play they had backs that came in for a few plays. Hillis wasn't safe under Mangini he knew if he took himself out it could spell doom. He didn't let Mike Bell come in until he had broken the 1,000 yard mark. Hes proven himself and he knows he will have to work just as hard as next year. Its good, it will keep him hungry. Those people that are talking about diminishing his role, are just that, people that are talking about it. Hardesty never had a better skill set than Hillis, and hes coming off of a knee injury, HIS FOURTH (5th if you count the minor one he had in preseason on his right knee). Its safe to say he doesn't have much left after that, especially when you add in the other injuries he has received. I can see him coming in for maybe 10 PLAYS a game, not rushes or receptions, just snaps.



    "Hardesty even managed to get into the end-zone in his first game.
    That was only part of his brief debut because in the second quarter he
    took a hand off and went straight up the middle only to never reappear,
    until Browns fans saw an injured player down on the field, and instantly
    you could feel a lump in your throat.

    That lump was knowing that
    Hardesty just went down with another injury, and lo and behold, it was
    not his right knee, which kept him out of camp and three preseason
    games, but it was his left knee. Terrible.

    After showing flashes of talent and potential, Hardesty might just be "one of those players."

    Granted,
    this is only speculation, but Hardesty could be another one of those
    Bob Sanders-like players who are really great play-makers, but can never
    stay healthy for an entire season."I know there was an article about Hillis and Hardesty in a dual backfield, and having Hillis sometimes block but with the drating of Marecic that just doesn't make sense. If they didn't envision Hillis as a primary back they wouldve drafted someone, because putting everything on Hardesty has about a 20 percent chance of working out. I am guessing Vickers will be gone. I wonder if he and Hillis had any problems as the season went on, thats the only sensible reason I can think of putting Hillis in single back sets, in shotgun etc. I do know that Marecic blocked with more intensity for Gerhart than others.

    Edited by: snow
     

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