Coming Financial Crisis Worse Than ’29?

Discussion in 'Happy Hour' started by DixieDestroyer, Dec 26, 2007.

  1. DixieDestroyer

    DixieDestroyer Hall of Famer

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    Good article on (Globalist Elite controlled) Central Banks and the quickly falling economy...

    Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park'

    As central banks continue to splash their cash over the system, so far to little effect, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues things are rapidly spiralling out of their control

    Twenty billion dollars here, $20bn there, and a lush half-trillion from the European Central Bank at give-away rates for Christmas. Buckets of liquidity are being splashed over the North Atlantic banking system, so far with meagre or fleeting effects.

    Read more from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Is the crisis getting worse? Get the latest comment
    The financial outlook in 2008: Experts' predictions
    As the credit paralysis stretches through its fifth month, a chorus of economists has begun to warn that the world's central banks are fighting the wrong war, and perhaps risk a policy error of epochal proportions.

    Faces of power: The Fed's Ben Bernanke, the BoE's Mervyn King, the ECB's Jean-Claude Trichet

    "Liquidity doesn't do anything in this situation," says Anna Schwartz, the doyenne of US monetarism and life-time student (with Milton Friedman) of the Great Depression.

    "It cannot deal with the underlying fear that lots of firms are going bankrupt. The banks and the hedge funds have not fully acknowledged who is in trouble. That is the critical issue," she adds.

    Lenders are hoarding the cash, shunning peers as if all were sub-prime lepers. Spreads on three-month Euribor and Libor - the interbank rates used to price contracts and Club Med mortgages - are stuck at 80 basis points even after the latest blitz. The monetary screw has tightened by default.

    York professor Peter Spencer, chief economist for the ITEM Club, says the global authorities have just weeks to get this right, or trigger disaster.

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    "The central banks are rapidly losing control. By not cutting interest rates nearly far enough or fast enough, they are allowing the money markets to dictate policy. We are long past worrying about moral hazard," he says.

    "They still have another couple of months before this starts imploding. Things are very unstable and can move incredibly fast. I don't think the central banks are going to make a major policy error, but if they do, this could make 1929 look like a walk in the park," he adds.

    The Bank of England knows the risk. Markets director Paul Tucker says the crisis has moved beyond the collapse of mortgage securities, and is now eating into the bedrock of banking capital. "We must try to avoid the vicious circle in which tighter liquidity conditions, lower asset values, impaired capital resources, reduced credit supply, and slower aggregate demand feed back on each other," he says.

    New York's Federal Reserve chief Tim Geithner echoed the words, warning of an "adverse self-reinforcing dynamic", banker-speak for a downward spiral. The Fed has broken decades of practice by inviting all US depositary banks to its lending window, bringing dodgy mortgage securities as collateral.

    Quietly, insiders are perusing an obscure paper by Fed staffers David Small and Jim Clouse. It explores what can be done under the Federal Reserve Act when all else fails.

    Section 13 (3) allows the Fed to take emergency action when banks become "unwilling or very reluctant to provide credit". A vote by five governors can - in "exigent circumstances" - authorise the bank to lend money to anybody, and take upon itself the credit risk. This clause has not been evoked since the Slump.

    Yet still the central banks shrink from seriously grasping the rate-cut nettle. Understandably so. They are caught between the Scylla of the debt crunch and the Charybdis of inflation. It is not yet certain which is the more powerful force.

    America's headline CPI screamed to 4.3 per cent in November. This may be a rogue figure, the tail effects of an oil, commodity, and food price spike. If so, the Fed missed its chance months ago to prepare the markets for such a case. It is now stymied.

    This has eerie echoes of Japan in late-1990, when inflation rose to 4 per cent on a mini price-surge across Asia. As the Bank of Japan fretted about an inflation scare, the country's financial system tipped into the abyss.

    In theory, Japan had ample ammo to fight a bust. Interest rates were 6 per cent in February 1990. In reality, the country was engulfed by the tsunami of debt deflation quicker than the bank dared to cut rates. In the end, rates fell to zero. Still it was not enough.

    When a credit system implodes, it can feed on itself with lightning speed. Current rates in America (4.25 per cent), Britain (5.5 per cent), and the eurozone (4 per cent) have scope to fall a long way, but this may prove less of a panacea than often assumed. The risk is a Japanese denouement across the Anglo-Saxon world and half Europe.

    Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG, said the Fed and allies had scripted a Greek tragedy by under-pricing credit long ago and seem paralysed as post-bubble chickens now come home to roost. "The central banks are trying to dissociate financial problems from the real economy. They are pushing the world nearer and nearer to the edge of depression. We hope they will eventually be dragged kicking and screaming to do enough, but time is running out," he said.

    advertisementGlance at the more or less healthy stock markets in New York, London, and Frankfurt, and you might never know that this debate is raging. Hopes that Middle Eastern and Asian wealth funds will plug every hole lifts spirits.

    Glance at the debt markets and you hear a different tale. Not a single junk bond has been issued in Europe since August. Every attempt failed.

    Europe's corporate bond issuance fell 66pc in the third quarter to $396bn (BIS data). Emerging market bonds plummeted 75pc.

    "The kind of upheaval observed in the international money markets over the past few months has never been witnessed in history," says Thomas Jordan, a Swiss central bank governor.

    "The sub-prime mortgage crisis hit a vital nerve of the international financial system," he says.

    The market for asset-backed commercial paper - where Europe's lenders from IKB to the German Doctors and Dentists borrowed through Irish-based "conduits" to play US housing debt - has shrunk for 18 weeks in a row. It has shed $404bn or 36pc. As lenders refuse to roll over credit, banks must take these wrecks back on their books. There lies the rub.

    Professor Spencer says capital ratios have fallen far below the 8 per cent minimum under Basel rules. "If they can't raise capital, they will have to shrink balance sheets," he said.

    Tim Congdon, a banking historian at the London School of Economics, said the rot had seeped through the foundations of British lending.

    Average equity capital has fallen to 3.2 per cent (nearer 2.5 per cent sans "goodwill"), compared with 5 per cent seven years ago. "How on earth did the Financial Services Authority let this happen?" he asks.

    Worse, changes pushed through by Gordon Brown in 1998 have caused the de facto cash and liquid assets ratio to collapse from post-war levels above 30 per cent to near zero. "Brown hadn't got a clue what he was doing," he says.

    The risk for Britain - as property buckles - is a twin banking and fiscal squeeze. The UK budget deficit is already 3 per cent of GDP at the peak of the economic cycle, shockingly out of line with its peers. America looks frugal by comparison.

    Maastricht rules may force the Government to raise taxes or slash spending into a recession. This way lies crucifixion. The UK current account deficit was 5.7 per cent of GDP in the second quarter, the highest in half a century. Gordon Brown has disarmed us on every front


    In Europe, the ECB has its own distinct headache. Inflation is 3.1 per cent, the highest since monetary union. This is already enough to set off a political storm in Germany. A Dresdner poll found that 71 per cent of German women want the Deutschmark restored.

    With Brünhilde fuming about Brot prices, the ECB has to watch its step. Frankfurt cannot easily cut rates to cushion the blow as housing bubbles pop across southern Europe. It must resort to tricks instead. Hence the half trillion gush last week at rates of 70bp below Euribor, a camouflaged move to help Spain.

    The ECB's little secret is that it must never allow a Northern Rock failure in the eurozone because this would expose the reality that there is no EU treasury and no EU lender of last resort behind the system. Would German taxpayers foot the bill for a Spanish bail-out in the way that Kentish men and maids must foot the bill for Newcastle's Rock? Nobody knows. This is where eurozone solidarity stretches to snapping point. It is why the ECB has showered the system with liquidity from day one of this crisis.

    advertisementCitigroup, Merrill Lynch, UBS, HSBC and others have stepped forward to reveal their losses. At some point, enough of the dirty linen will be on the line to let markets discern the shape of the debacle. We are not there yet.

    Goldman Sachs caused shock last month when it predicted that total crunch losses would reach $500bn, leading to a $2 trillion contraction in lending as bank multiples kick into reverse. This already seems humdrum.

    "Our counterparties are telling us that losses may reach $700bn," says Rob McAdie, head of credit at Barclays Capital. Where will it end? The big banks face a further $200bn of defaults in commercial property. On it goes.

    The International Monetary Fund still predicts blistering global growth of 5 per cent next year. If so, markets should roar back to life in January, as though the crunch were but a nightmare. There again, the credit soufflé may be hard to raise a second time.


    ***Reference article...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=CWN5G KZGHT1J1QFIQMFSFFWAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/money/2007/12/23/cccrisis12 3.xml&page=1
     
  2. freedom1

    freedom1 Mentor

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    Yeah, I think it will be much much worse. In 1929, a large part of the population still lived on the farm. A natural food distribution network was setup among families. Now, everyone is crammed into big cities. There are many more "minority" people living in the US than then. Their young will form into roving gangs when the sh't hits the fan. Many anti gun laws are now moving into effect to stop people from protecting themselves. People who bitch too much about having to stand in line for government cheese and bread will get thrown into reeducation camps.

    I think the US is going to have to drag the rest of the world into major war to try and get out of this one. We owe them trillions of dollars and they hate our guts. You can't blame them. Think of all the countries where we've propped up dictators and stolen resources. If we don't change things now, it's gonna get very ugly. We're running out of time.
     
  3. whiteCB

    whiteCB Master

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    The Bush Administration is f*cking us in the ass for years to come. I see 2011 as the year when sh*t hits the fan. The next president, no matter who it is, will be blamed for all the mess even though Bush set him up for it. There are just so many people out there who cannot save or manage money and its going to get them back.
     
  4. JoeV

    JoeV Guru

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    There are safeguards in place to make sure the Great Depression doesn't happen again. Hell we are not even in a recession yet! These are uncharted uneconomic waters, as precious metals are going through the roof, the housing market collapsed, and oil is sky high. Yet the stock market and jobs markets remain stable. The weak dollar has been a boon for exporters. This will correct itself, no need to start jumping off bridges or going to the panic room just yet guys. [​IMG]

    PS. If you can buy a house now, DO IT! Have you seen the prices of some houses now? Good houses that were $75,000 a couple of years ago are going for $40,000 in Cleveland. BUY BUY BUY!
     
  5. Tom Iron

    Tom Iron Mentor

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    JoeV,

    I agree with you that we don't have to panic. However, I advise causion at this point. I think now is the time to sit back and watch and wait. See what happens.

    Tom Iron...
     
  6. freedom1

    freedom1 Mentor

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    Housing is going to go way lower.

    Don't panic, prepare. That they can stretch this thing out doesn't mean they can stop it.
     
  7. DixieDestroyer

    DixieDestroyer Hall of Famer

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    In my humble opinion, the writing is clearly on the wall folks. The U.S. is the world's largest debtor nation, and the largest (foreign) holders of U.S dollars (ie - Red China) are unloading the currency...thereby driving the value downwards. This rapid devaluation is a pre-cursor/foreshadowing to the implementation of the Amero (in conjunction with the NAU). The stock market is largely smoke & mirrors anyhow, precious metals (coins) are definitely the way to go. Any investments pegged to the U.S. dollar will be going the way of the Titanic very soon. Again, I'd suggest investing in precious metals (taking actual possession thereof), getting out of ALL debt ASAP, stocking up on a good H2O purification system, a non-perishable food supply, a good rifle, shortgun & handgun + tons of ammo, lots of gas & 1-3 good generators, a "bug-out"/meet-up location for your family (somewhere secluded, yet not too difficult to reach). Freedom1 hit the nail on the head..."Don't panic, Prepare". Get into "survivalist" mode!Edited by: DixieDestroyer
     
  8. white is right

    white is right Hall of Famer

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    Yes I have seen these houses on Ebay and online in Cleveland sites. Cleveland is in a recession and other areas of the country are in one too. This looming recession could be a big one similar to 90'. But there is no way that it will be a depression. Banks and their poor loan practices and easy credit have ruined too many people. I have seen this first hand. I swear some people don't have a radar for financial solvency. [​IMG]
     
  9. Bronk

    Bronk Mentor

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    It will be worse because it is so unpredictable.

    it could come in the form of a bank crash or a sudden rush of inflation. The chickens are coming home to roost.
     
  10. aussieaussie31

    aussieaussie31 Guru

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    I have to agree with DixieDestroyer on this one. I am no economist, however I see no way out of what is coming in regards to a complete economic collapse of the U.S.dollar. The dollar is hemmed in on all sides.

    A)The endless printing of more and more money with nothing other than faith of stability backing it.
    B) Endless government spending with no money to support such programs, wars, etc. (There is no end in sight to this)
    C) Complete and intentional de-industrialization of the nation.
    D) The replacement of manufacturing jobs with service related jobs.
    A small list of why things will go haywire shortly. Both of my Parents, numerous Aunts, Uncles, Cousins, friends, etc still reside in the states. Needless to say I truly hope everything will somehow work itself out.
     
  11. DixieDestroyer

    DixieDestroyer Hall of Famer

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  12. freedom1

    freedom1 Mentor

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    Yes, my precious metals and oil investments are all up.

    Agriculture is another good thing to get into. My DBA (Deutsch Bank Agriculture) has gone up consistently. See article below.

    You'd have to be a real dumb ass to not see this thing coming. Caste footballers, Get out of the dollar!!!

    Japan to Increase Emergency Stockpiles of Grains, Yomiuri Says

    By Jae Hur

    Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, the world's biggest grain importer, plans to increase emergency stockpiles of corn, wheat and soybeans next year to ensure stable supplies at a time of soaring global prices, the Yomiuri newspaper reported.

    The country plans to boost reserves, including privately held inventories, to three months of annual demand in 2009 from one to two months currently, Yomiuri said yesterday, without saying where it obtained the information. A team led by Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda will draw up a report by March and submit it to the farm ministry, the newspaper said.

    Japan's imports of corn, which come mostly from the U.S., are forecast at 16.3 million metric tons in the year ending September 2008, while wheat imports are projected at 5.5 million tons and soybean imports at 4.2 million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on Dec. 11.

    Wheat and soybeans have been among the best-performing commodities of the past year, with respective gains of 79 percent and 81 percent. Corn, which gained 18 percent in the past year, reached an 11-year high today of $4.62 a bushel.

    Japan's emergency stockpiles of essential feed grains in 2006 included 536,000 tons of corn, 64,000 tons of sorghum and 350,000 tons of barley, according to a report by the U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service in March 2007.

    Wheat inventories were set at 1.8 months' of demand, or about 900,000 tons, in 2006, the report said, adding that actual stock figures are not disclosed.

    The target stockpile amount for soybeans was reduced to 39,000 tons in April 2006 from 43,000 tons in 2005, the FAS, a branch of the USDA, said in a separate report in May.
     
  13. white is right

    white is right Hall of Famer

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    Well this sites favorite persecuted minority Jose Canseco has been caught up in the foreclosure mess, now it's Mr. Big Cheque, Ed McMahon. Here is the Reuters story.....LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Ed McMahon, the longtime sidekick to U.S. talk show host Johnny Carson, is fighting to save his multimillion dollar Beverly Hills home from foreclosure, McMahon's spokesman said on Wednesday.

    McMahon, 85, most famous for his "Heeeeeeeeere's Johnny" introduction to "The Tonight Show" for 30 years, is one of the most high-profile people to be caught up in the U.S. housing downturn and credit squeeze. Beyond his "Tonight Show" duties, McMahon also hosted popular U.S. TV talent show "Star Search."

    Spokesman Howard Bragman said the jovial TV personality was having "very fruitful discussions" with his mortgage lenders after a notice of default was filed in February.

    According to public records, McMahon was then about $644,000 in arrears on the mortgage for the six-bedroom, five-bathroom home in an exclusive area of Beverly Hills. The house has been on the market for about two years and the current asking price is $5.75 million.

    Bragman said McMahon fell and broke his neck about 18 months ago, preventing him from working. His health problems and the weak housing market forced him into foreclosure proceedings.

    McMahon and his wife Pamela "understand that they are in the same situation as hundreds of thousands of other hard-working Americans, and their hearts go out to them," Bragman said.

    According to the National Association of Realtors, 14.5 percent or one in seven homes for sale across the nation in April were the result of foreclosure.

    (Reporting by Jill Serjeant; editing by David Wiessler)
     
  14. Poacher

    Poacher Mentor

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    Hasn't been able to work? He's been in show business for decades, what in God's name did he do with all of his money?
     
  15. white is right

    white is right Hall of Famer

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    It's his second or maybe third marriage. His trophy wife probably wants to live in style. She is 40 years younger then Ed, so she isn't in the relationship for his friskyness..... [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  16. jaxvid

    jaxvid Hall of Famer

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    "preventing him from working" if you are frickin' 85 years ago you should be retired and playing golf and sipping cocktails on the beach.
     
  17. Colonel_Reb

    Colonel_Reb Hall of Famer

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    Thats for sure. Who knows what he's been doing with his money to supposedly have to work at that age.
     
  18. white is right

    white is right Hall of Famer

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    Well we can add Evan Fields to the list of foreclosure victims. I love the line of his lawyer who stated that bankruptcy isn't as bad as it seems.....

    ATLANTA -- Maybe now we know why former heavyweight champion Evander Holyfield wants to keep fighting at age 45.

    The "Real Deal" appears real broke.

    His $10 million estate in suburban Atlanta is under foreclosure, the mother of one of his children is suing for unpaid child support, and a Utah consulting company has gone to court claiming the boxer failed to pay back more than a half million dollars for landscaping.

    A legal notice that ran Wednesday in a small local newspaper said Holyfield's estate will be auctioned off "at public outcry to the highest bidder for cash" at the Fayette County courthouse on July 1. The 54,000-square-foot home -- located on Evander Holyfield Highway -- has 109 rooms, including 17 bathrooms, three kitchens and a bowling alley.

    [+] Enlarge
    Evander Holyfield

    AP Photo/Jenni Girtman

    Evander Holyfield's 109-room, 54,000-square foot house in suburban Atlanta is under foreclosure.

    Meanwhile, Holyfield's handlers allegedly told the mother of one of his children that he will no longer be able to make his $3,000-a-month support payment. Toi Irvin claims the boxer has already missed two payments, so she has gone to court seeking restitution.

    "My concern is there may be a lot of other mothers not be getting paid, and I would like my client to be at front of the line," said Randy Kessler, Irvin's attorney.

    Kessler said Thursday evening he has yet to hear from Holyfield's attorney and hopes to go before a judge in 30 days. He will request the boxer be jailed if he doesn't pay up.

    "This is such a small amount given the scope of what he has," Kessler said. "If Evander Holyfield can get away with it, anybody can. There are guys making $15,000 a year who go to jail for missing a $100 payment."

    Holyfield, the only four-time heavyweight champion, has at least nine children.

    Further compounding his financial woes, a federal lawsuit was filed about two weeks ago in Utah seeking repayment of $550,000 in loans allegedly made to Holyfield in late 2006 and early 2007 to pay for landscaping on his 235-acre estate.

    The case, filed two weeks ago in U.S. District Court in Salt Lake City, said Robert Hall met Holyfield through a mutual friend and agreed to the loan, with the understanding it would be paid back, with interest, after the boxer's next bout.

    Since the initial transfer of $50,000 was made to Holyfield, he has fought four times but failed to pay back any of the loans, the suit claims. It also says he did not respond to a Sept. 10 letter demanding repayment.

    Holyfield didn't return a message left on his cell phone by The Associated Press. His attorney, Frederick Gardner, did not respond to an e-mail nor a call to his Atlanta office.

    Holyfield's apparent financial problems are a familiar story in boxing.

    Joe Louis kept fighting well past his prime trying to pay off a crushing tax debt. Sugar Ray Robinson admitted he was broke by the time his long career ended. Mike Tyson has squandered most of the vast fortune he accumulated during a career that included two memorable fights with Holyfield.

    Holyfield has likely made hundreds of millions of dollars during his 24-year boxing career, including a reported $34 million for his second bout with Tyson in 1997, the infamous "Bite Fight" that ended with Tyson being disqualified for gnawing off a chunk of Holyfield's ear.

    At the time, it was the richest fight in boxing history. Now, he's defaulted on a $10 million loan to Washington Mutual Bank, which will auction off his home on the courthouse steps.

    The child support case involves Holyfield 10-year-old son, whose mother was initially awarded $2,000 a month in support. A flight attendant, she lost her job when airlines downsized in the wake of the Sept. 11, attacks, prompting her to return to court seeking an increase.

    In 2003, a Fayette County jury increased the payment to $3,000 after hearing evidence that Holyfield's gross monthly income was $604,000, while Irvin was bringing in less than $2,600 a month.

    But Holyfield's earning power has been in steep decline since then. He went through a dismal six-fight stretch that produced only one win, prompting the state of New York to strip him of his license after a dismal 2004 loss to Larry Donald.

    Resisting calls to retire, Holyfield returned from a nearly two-year layoff to land yet another title shot last October. He lost a unanimous decision to Sultan Ibragimov in Moscow for the WBO title, but still insisted that he would keep fighting until he's the undisputed champion -- a plan that appears downright ludicrous, even with the weak, muddled state of the heavyweight division.

    Kessler said the boxer helped make a down payment on a Clayton County home for Irvin, set up a trust fund for his son and had been fairly consistent in his support payments until recently, when Holyfield's representatives told her she was being cut off.

    "It wasn't like they told her, 'Hold on, hold your breath, we'll get it to you, we're just having some accounting difficulties,' " Kessler said. "It was like, 'He's not paying, and we don't know if or when he's going to pay you again.' "

    Kessler said the foreclosure of Holyfield's estate could actually be good news for his client, noting the 2003 trial uncovered evidence that the boxer had paid a $17,000 electric bill the previous December, largely because of an elaborate light display at the home.

    "When people bring up foreclosure and bankruptcy, I'm not that concerned," Kessler said. "What that does is free up money for child support. If they foreclose on his house, that means he doesn't have to pay the mortgage. If he goes bankrupt, that frees up some other obligations.

    "A $500,000 lawsuit, $10 million for his property, those are big deals. Child support of $6,000? The light bill is probably $6,000 at that place."

    Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  19. Tom Iron

    Tom Iron Mentor

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    It is interesting that so many blacks lose everything they've made in their lives. The thing with them is that other than their sport they have no ability to live in the society they exist in. They've never worked, never had even a childs job such as family chores, nothing. So when they go on to fame they surround themselves with all sorts of bums. Of course, these freeloaders don't pay for anything. All they do is take. After not too long, the athelete begins to lose if talent and his money and one day he looks up and he's broke and alone.

    Some of them were so great in their day that they can eke out a living signing autographs or gladhanding in Vegas or something, but many more of them just find themselves in the gutter sitting next to another bum.

    Joe Louis was supported by Max Schmeling. Schmeling was quite a man. He went fought with the German army all the way into Russia and all the way out and became very successful after WWII. Schmeling even paid for Louis' funeral.

    Tom Iron...
     
  20. Kaptain

    Kaptain Master

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    Just relooking at the title of the thread again, I have to agree that the coming economic collapse will make 1929 look like a Sunday picnic. Just think about it. In 1929 well over 90% of our population was white. A better portion of them lived and/or worked on farms. In times of economic disaster they could easily become self-sufficient. The overall population was much lower back then too. Limited resources are much more limited these days. And finally, the 1929 crash was not the same type of crash we are facing today. We are facing a monetary crash like the Weimar Government of Germany in the 1920's. The Weimar depression was far worse than our's in the 1930's and they were almost 100% white.

    You don't have to imagine what a depression looks like when a good portion of the population is non-white. Theft, Tribal warfare, massive starvation, cities burning, and a steady diet of mud cookies will be the order of the day. Get prepared now. Edited by: Kaptain Poop
     
  21. Colonel_Reb

    Colonel_Reb Hall of Famer

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    Yep, and the Dow closed 400 down today andoil is up to around $137 a barrel. At this rate, it won't take much longer.
     
  22. Kaptain

    Kaptain Master

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    Bump

    Probably another huge sell-off today to be followed by many more.
     
  23. Tom Iron

    Tom Iron Mentor

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    Kaptain Poop,

    It'll certainly be an interesting ride watching people as they try to cope with depression and inflation simultaneously. That'll be the difference between now and 29. At least in 29, if you had a dime, you could get something for it. This time around, it'll be much worse.

    Tom Iron...
     
  24. Solomon Kane

    Solomon Kane Mentor

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    this is a classic fed-engineered depression. If they just refuse to lower the interest rates the landing may be softer...but still pretty bad. But if they substantially raise the rates...it will at least be as bad as the recession of 79-81...and it will be an inflationary depression...since it will take a while to shake out the fed's easy money policy of the last 3 years.
     
  25. Kaptain

    Kaptain Master

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    It surprising how stupid many people are. Since I have been watching the econonmy closely for the past two years or so, I have seen the talking heads repeat the same stories: were at the bottom, the ecomomy is fine, invest in banks!, gold is bad, nike, walmart, IBM, Sprint, Ford, GM etc are solid investments.

    When I started trading I got four other friends and family members involved. Two of them believe as I do but the other two almost did the exact opposite as what I advised. The other two invested in Coutrywide, Ford, Wells Fargo etc. Is that laughable or what? Now they want to buy more because their stock is so cheap. LOL. The only reason the stock market hasn't totally collasped is because stupid people are still putting money into it. Buy PM's and short the market.
     

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